TWLO Shares Plummet

My understanding of the drop is that it is because of lower guidance, specifically with their relationship with one of their largest partners (pretty sure they’re referring to Amazon).

Good call on the relationship being the key to the drop, but it’s Uber. They’re going to do more things in house. They were 17% of TWLO’s revenue last year, and only 12% in Q1. They’ll be less going forward.

However, the overall active customer trend looks really good:

M16: 28,648
J16: 30,780 (up 7.4% sequentially)
S16: 34,457 (up 11.9% seq)
D16: 36,606 (up 6.2% seq)
M17: 40,696 (up 11.1% seq)

So it re-accelerated this quarter. Here are some financial highlights for the quarter:

Revenue: 87.4M (Up 47%, a$4M beat)
EPS: -0.04 (a 0.02 beat)
Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate: 141%

June Revenue Outlook: 86.5M (midpoint) – Yahoo says 87.81M was expected, so 34% instead of 36%
YTD Revenue Outlook: 359M (midpoint) – Yahoo says 370M was expected, so 30% instead of 33%

To me, these results look great. Even with the Uber news, they’re only guiding a couple percent lower, and they’ll beat it anyway!

Is Uber worth 30%? I don’t think so, but the market does. Opportunity?

Bear

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