That is a misnomer. Remember, after WW II, our USD appreciated. We did well.
- Trading Partners: Exports to the European Union were significantly up in 2025, and exports to the UK surged, potentially due to new trade agreements. Exports to China have fallen considerably from past levels.
- Oil Exports: While still strong compared to several years ago, oil exports were down from record highs in 2024, partly due to declining prices.
Context
- Overall Position: The U.S. remains the world’s second-largest exporter of goods.
- Long-Term Growth: Over the last five years leading up to 2023, U.S. exports grew from $1.59 trillion to $1.9 trillion.
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The reason exports to China have been dropping, below. Note we are at high risk of a slump that looks like this. We are already seeing the housing market cool off and new graduates not getting hired.
Google AI
Yes, China’s youth unemployment has been rising and remains a significant concern, hitting high levels (around 18.9% for ages 16-24 excluding students in August 2025) due to an economic slowdown, real estate sector issues, and a large influx of graduates, leading many young people to seek stable public sector jobs or adopt “lying flat” lifestyles. The overall urban unemployment rate has seen slight increases as well, though youth figures are more volatile and closely watched as an indicator of economic health.
Key Points:
- Youth Unemployment Spike: The rate for 16-24 year olds (excluding students) rose to 18.9% in August 2025, the highest since a new calculation method began in late 2023.
- Economic Slowdown: An overall slowing economy, particularly in sectors like real estate and tech, has reduced demand for new graduates.
- Record Graduates: A record number of university graduates (around 12.2 million in summer 2023) are entering a strained job market.
- Shifting Job Preferences: Faced with uncertainty, more young people are pursuing secure government or state-owned enterprise jobs, with fewer looking at private companies.
- Overall Unemployment: The broader urban unemployment rate has also seen slight upticks, from 5.2% in July 2025 to 5.3% in August 2025.
Why it Matters:
- Economic Indicator: Youth unemployment is seen as a key signal of China’s economic stability and potential for future growth.
- Social Impact: High unemployment fuels discontent and prompts shifts in lifestyle, with some young people choosing to “lie flat” or seek lower-cost rural living.
In essence, while China’s overall job market faces challenges, the youth segment is experiencing a more acute crisis, signaling deeper economic and structural issues.
- China’s youth unemployment signals its economic woes are far from …
Sep 24, 2024 — China’s rising youth unemployment signals the nation’s economic woes are far from over. Job-seekers communicate with e…
Los Angeles Times
- China’s job market woes deepen as youth unemployment hits …
Sep 23, 2025 — China’s urban youth unemployment rate rose last month to the highest level since the data set was adjusted in 2023, as…
- China’s youth unemployment soars to 2-year high as job crunch deepens
Sep 17, 2025 — In August, China’s youth unemployment rate reached 18.9%, the highest level since the country changed its method of ca…
South China Morning Post
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With its below the age of Chinese 60 and below age cohorts shrinking, the unemployment of the youngest bunch sounds to me like a very significant, not macro-economically rooted, slow speed disaster…? A disaster with social/cultural roots, and that kind of disaster can quickly become very ugly for established power.
Watching.
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Xi and the military leadership need contention with the West over Taiwan to keep a strong fighting force aligned with a mission. Take Taiwan and what’s next? The focus needs to stay in place. Might be the main reason to drag out for another decade taking Taiwan. Xi will be sorry if his target is acquired.
In the same vein, our madman might not take VZ, but every day my theory is evaporating.
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FWIW, international etf (vsgx) and Europe (vgk) may be breaking through their all time highs.
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The average maturity of Treasury securities is now about 6 years.
U.S. marketable Treasury debt is now approximately:
22% Bills (maturity of one year or less)
52% Notes (maturities ranging from two to 10 years)
17% Bonds (maturities of more than 10 years)
7% TIPS (maturities of 5, 10, and 30 years)
2% Floating-Rate Notes (maturity of two years)
=== links ===
“The current average maturity has declined since then to 71 months, which is 6 months longer than the 20-year historical average.”
quoted from https://www.pgpf.org/article/how-does-the-treasury-issue-debt/
“As of November 2025, of the $30.77 trillion of total public debt outstanding, $15.49 trillion (50.35 percent) is in notes, $6.72 trillion (21.85 percent) is in bills, and $5.19 trillion (16.86 percent) is in bonds. $3.37 trillion (10.95 percent) is in other securities. As of the most recent data from Q4 of FY2025, approximately 33 percent of U.S. publicly held marketable debt will be maturing within 12 months. As of the most recent data from September 2025, the average maturity is 71 months.”
quoted from Debt Dashboard - U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee
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Here is the German Chancellor Merz at the WEF…
“The single market was once created to form the most competitive economic area in the world, but instead we have become the world champions of over-regulation.”
DB2
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Supply side economics much?
I am going to do my inversion after all, if the game is successful.