Ubiquiti Earnings - My take

Ubiquiti delivered absolutely a great report, and at one point was down over 10% (more than $7). I bought all I could at the lower prices. Here’s what I took away from the release.

Record Revenue and Ninth Consecutive Quarter of Revenue Growth

Earnings of 92 cents per share, also a record by far.

Gross Margin was 45.4% of revenues! Wow!

Net income of $75 million was 30.5% of revenue!!! Wow! Wow! Wow!

Revenues up 20%, and up 7.6% sequentially, at $246 million

Enterprise Technology revenues up over 50%, and up 11% sequentially, and now make up more than 50% of total sales. Year-over-year growth was driven by the evolution toward AC technology products, growth in switching and higher average selling prices.

Days sales outstanding decreased by 7 days sequentially, to 48 days from 55 days, driven by higher collections.

Repurchased 2.75 million shares of stock at an average price per share of $55, between July 1 and October 6.

Increased the maximum amount of availability under our revolving loan facility to $425 million from $300 million, up $125 million.

Initiated a new stock repurchase program, authorizing repurchase up to $50 million of common stock additional.

And on that report it sold off. Oh well!?

Saul

30 Likes

I agree with all that you wrote about UBNT’s earnings report, Saul. I liked what I saw. However, it must be noted that UBNT guided flat revenues and earnings for the coming quarter. Hence, the sell-off. Like you, I bought more shares at the open, but the share price may wallow about a bit over the near term. That’s OK by me. I’ll keep holding and buying more when the price is right.

4 Likes

Saul:

what do you make of the sell-off?

another case: HUBS. It also had an excellent report but it has been selling off since the report. What are the considerations sellers may have in your opinion for selling UBNT and HUBS?

tj

However, it must be noted that UBNT guided flat revenues and earnings for the coming quarter. Hence, the sell-off. Like you, I bought more shares at the open, but the share price may wallow about a bit over the near term.

Hi Putnid (I stayed and watched this time to make sure the spell checker didn’t change it).

I take that with a grain of salt. As I look back over the past six years, which is as far as my records go, there hasn’t been a single year in which December revenues didn’t beat Sept revenues, not one, even during those years when the company was stagnant. Now that their enterprise revenues are growing at 50%, and up 11% sequentially, I think the chance of Dec revenues not beating Sept revenues at roughly 0% (barring some huge international catastrophe).

Saul

10 Likes

another case: HUBS. It also had an excellent report but it has been selling off since the report. What are the considerations sellers may have in your opinion for selling UBNT and HUBS?
tj

At first I thought maybe Citron was taking a short position to short it. But I added a lot nevertheless. Now I think it’s just sell-on-the-news.

Here’s Alarm which reported today (and which I sold out of a week or two ago to put the money elsewhere, not because I expected this):

Alarm shares plunge despite Q3 beats, upside guidance

Alarm (ALRM) shares are down 16.12% despite beating Q3 revenue and EPS estimates. FY17 guidance has revenue from $332.8M to $334M compared to the $328.41M consensus.

Saul

2 Likes

NASDAQ as a whole is down about 1.4% as of this point of the day.

NVDA announces after market close today. We’ll see how that goes, and how it might impact the technology sector as a whole.

Hi Saul,

At this point in time, I find UBNT fairly difficult to assess. It was easy to be confident in the company’s prospects when it served the WISPs and larger enterprises. The business was straightforward and UBNT had fine products. Now, Pera’s broadened the product line to include consumer items and more esoteric offerings. For example, I’m not at all impressed with UBNT’s “necklace cam”. Remember SunMax? That was UBNT’s foray into the solar sector. We don’t hear much about it any more because I read in a trade paper that the failure rate has been >20%. Those sorts of missteps can affect the bottom line and are impossible for me to anticipate. Having said all that, I’m quite bullish about UBNT’s future, particularly as the industry moves to LTE-U (a necessity given the paucity of available sprectrum). It’s my understanding that UBNT has fine products lined up.

In short, UBNT guided flat for the coming quarter and Pera has been a straight-shooter. I’ll take him at his word. As I’ve said, I’ll keep buying more shares if I feel the price is right.

(And thanks for getting the name right)

6 Likes

Here’s Alarm which reported today (and which I sold out of a week or two ago to put the money elsewhere, not because I expected this)

Saul, again and again you have shown amazing instincts for when to get out of stocks. While there’s a ton of useful information here from you (and others, of course) on all sorts of buy and sell rationales, it would be great to see if this instinct could be bottled up and explained.

Why did you sell out Alarm?

2 Likes

Why did you sell out Alarm?

Hi Smorgasbord, I sold out of a week or two ago to put the money elsewhere. I wanted cash to buy more Hubs, Arista, Wix and Splunk, for all of which I felt I could see a more unlimited long range future. I could have been completely wrong though. I’ve also been trying to streamline my portfolio and cut out extraneous stocks. Alarm system software just didn’t seem to fit.

Saul

5 Likes

I’m actually considering starting a sizable position in both WIX and ALRM, pretty attractive price-wise after the drop the past couple days. I think ALRM might have a little more bleeding left the next couple trading days, keeping a close eye on it.

Ubiquiti delivered absolutely a great report, and at one point was down over 10% (more than $7). I bought all I could at the lower prices.

That move paid off quickly.

I half-listened to the Q&A session. Here’s a snippet I found incredible. The team that developed Amplifi (use it in my house and it is great) was a total of 8 people!. That is pretty amazing.

A competitor was referenced who employs 200 in the same space.

Finally, UBNT will stop giving quarterly guidance and only give annual guidance FWIW.

I’ll have to read the transcript when Seeking Alpha posts it.

A.J.

3 Likes

HUBS and Arista are my two most recent purchases of shares, so I feel like I might be in good company with Saul.

I’ll have to read the transcript when Seeking Alpha posts it.

Already posted:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4122981-ubiquiti-networks-u…

1 Like

The team that developed Amplifi (use it in my house and it is great) was a total of 8 people!. That is pretty amazing.

A competitor was referenced who employs 200 in the same space.

That’s not an apples to apples comparison. The whole competitor (Eero) employs about 200 people, including people in finance, manufacturing, etc., so you’d want to add people in those roles from Ubiquiti to have a fair comparison. Unless we know big the engineering development team at Eero was we don’t have a truly valid comparison.

Apple, for instance, despite it being a big company, is also known for small, focused development teams. And Pera states clearly that he needs to improve Ubiquity’s sales and marketing efforts, which almost certainly means additional hiring.

BTW, interesting to read his take on hiring in Silicon Valley. It is in a boom cycle right now, as anyone who travels during rush hour here can tell you. And, Pera’s not wrong about people jumping from company to company. But still, interesting to hear about “weathering the storm.”

And he also said: “Now, AmpliFi wasn’t executed all that well, we could have done it a lot better, but it was a 7% or 8% team.” If anyone actually listened to the call, did he really say “it was a 7 person or 8 person team”? Because he then follows up with: “And we have eight guys and we stuck with our Ubiquiti business model blueprint and we’ve gotten incredible leverage.” So “person” makes more sense than “percent.”

So, perhaps he’s saying that the small team size limited what they could have done, but he did say “done it a lot better” which seems to imply quality of people, not quantity. Again, perhaps listening in would provide clues?

Anyway, companies that hire in Silicon Valley do so because there’s this self-feeding cycle of great jobs that attracts great talent, which then attracts companies wanting to hire great people, which then means more openings for great people, etc. It is somewhat of an arms race, though, and I can understand a small company like Ubiquity not wanting to get caught up in that.

I think what makes this work for Ubiquity is Pera himself. He architects it all, and then hires people to implement his designs. Microsoft in the early days did this too (anyone recall Microserfs?). But, as Microsoft grew, that model became unsustainable since no one person can architect a big project at the necessary level of detail, not to mention multiple projects. So you end up with a distributed model, which requires hiring people that can make decisions at all levels in the company, which means you need to hire people capable of making those decisions. Now, great people can be found everywhere, but the density of such people varies by region and hiring may be cheaper, but you can’t necessarily find enough people quickly enough. Anyway, this is my long winded way of saying that as Ubiquity grows Pera’s hiring model will probably have to change.

3 Likes

That is pretty amazing.

Actually, it is expected. For software, it is documented that productivity in software shops varies as much as 1000 to 1, with about 10X coming each from experience, language, and tools. Think about that in relation to any other area of human endeavor where a difference in productivity of 5 or 10% can be a compelling competitive advantage. Explaining this is a whole dissertation, but my experience has consistently been that a small team of carefully chosen people regularly produce software which is of dramatically higher quality and at a greater rate than megateams.

5 Likes

I posted this on another Motley Fool board, but it fits here too, as it is in regards to Ubiquiti.

I wonder if part of Pera’s grand plan isn’t to eventually re-purchase all the outstanding shares he doesn’t own and take UBNT private.

With a float in the ballpark of 20,000,000 shares that he doesn’t own (maybe more like 21M), that would “only” be about $1.2-1.3 billion at current share prices, which would be about what the profits/earnings for UBNT should be between 2018 and 2022 (if not a slightly shorter timeframe).

Based on that, I could envision Pera planning to take UBNT private again maybe as early as 2020 or 2021.

Actually, if the right deal was put together, I almost wouldn’t be shocked if Pera took UBNT private again at almost any given time.

9 Likes

From yesterday:
NASDAQ as a whole is down about 1.4% as of this point of the day.

NVDA announces after market close today. We’ll see how that goes, and how it might impact the technology sector as a whole.

Early in the day today, but it seems that NVDA’s good quarter might just have influenced some positivity throughout the tech sector…or at least a good deal of my holdings (NVDA, ANET, MELI, SHOP, UBNT, CGNX, and SQ which announced its own pretty good quarter yesterday).

1 Like

Saul, again and again you have shown amazing instincts for when to get out of stocks. While there’s a ton of useful information here from you (and others, of course) on all sorts of buy and sell rationales, it would be great to see if this instinct could be bottled up and explained.

Why did you sell out Alarm?

This is the advantage of being 100% invested in a small number of stocks. You are able to watch your stocks closely, and if you want to take advantage of a great opportunity, you have to sell something. With a small number of stocks it is probably easier to have a gut feeling of which ones are not really pulling the load. Easy to decide to sell those to raise money.

6 Likes