Ubiquiti Q2 results...

It’s up 10% pre-market so someone likes the results!

It’s a beat on top and bottom line and they have issued new guidance…
Based on recent business trends, the Company believes the demand environment in its end markets supports the following forecast for the Company’s first quarter fiscal 2018 ending September 30, 2017:

Revenues of $230-$250 million;
GAAP diluted EPS of $0.80-$0.90;
Gross margins are expected to remain consistent on a sequential basis; and
An effective tax rate of 13%.
For the full year fiscal ending June 30, 2018, the Company expects to generate revenues of $1.0 - $1.15 billion and diluted earnings per share of $3.70 - $4.30 driven by growth in the Enterprise Technology and Service Provider Technology segments.


Now up nearly 25%!! Those like Saul who did not lose faith have now been handsomely rewarded.

Saul seems to have an insight beyond what we see in his monthly reports. I wish I knew what it is. This must be unique and can’t be copied, if I am not stating the obvious.



Holy cow, I didn’t expect a pop of quite this much. I think there may be a bit of short squeeze in play.

Glad I had a $55 call option on top of my shares though.

My UBNT gains just today have added over 2% to my portfolio’s value.

In June I sold out of my UBNT position. Kicking myself today.

This feels like long awaited redemption for me. Have been following the company and have owned since the high 20s and added along the way. It is a significant position for me, but it has been a long slog. Certainly, there were probably better places for my money along the way. I just couldn’t sell as I have been waiting for the other shoe to drop (in a good way). It finally did.

Kudos to the holders of this name. I haven’t dove into the specifics yet, but will be doing so in the next couple days.

Take care,



Have you seen the TMF article on UBNT - it goes over some of the fundamentals in a way that makes sense of today’s rise:



I haven’t looked at it yet and probably won’t till the weekend. The sell side analysts were pretty skeptical of hitting $1B revenue. The sales haven’t slowed down and the new guidance is for $1B in fiscal 2018. I am/ was skeptical that they can scale their current model to the next level of revenue, not the sales itself but the model, and as a result, they would hit margin pressures. Given their short interest and the margins holding up so far, the stock has some serious potential, especially if few of the sell side analysts change their ratings and a mini short-squeeze set in play.

The stock was just flat for the last 6 months and today’s move is a significant breakout, taking out previous high. The trading will be choppy for next few days and if the stock settles above the previous high, I may open additional trading position. Of course, this has nothing to do with what I think about company’s business model :slight_smile: