UFOs and UAP's

Investment Analysis Clubs Liquid Lounge
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But if you want to talk about conspiracies, just start a thread on UFO/UAPs. I’m all in.

AW

OK… There have been recent congressional hearings regarding UFO/UAP’s and videos of various phenomena were shown followed a congressman asking the hapless General for an explanation, which of course if he had one, then the object would not be a UFO.

Good theater but no enlightenment. My personal belief is yes there is life out these somewhere, probably lots of it given the immensity. An also the likelihood of any of it visiting Earth is as close to zero as can be. Here is something I read a while back in an Astronomy text that clarified my thinking.

Interstellar Travel

Bernard Oliver, an engineer with an abiding interest in life elsewhere, made a revealing calculation about the costs of rapid interstellar space travel. Since we do not know what sort of technology we (or other civilizations) might someday develop, Oliver considered a trip to the nearest star (and back again) in a spaceship with a “perfect engine”—one that would convert its fuel into energy with 100% efficiency. Even with a perfect engine, the energy cost of a single round-trip journey at 70% the speed of light turns out to be equivalent to several hundred thousand years’ worth of total U.S. electrical energy consumption. The cost of such travel is literally out of this world.

This is one reason astronomers are so skeptical about claims that UFOs are spaceships from extraterrestrial civilizations. Given the distance and energy expense involved, it seems unlikely that the dozens of UFOs (and even UFO abductions) claimed each year could be visitors from other stars so fascinated by Earth civilization that they are willing to expend fantastically large amounts of energy or time to reach us. Nor does it seem credible that these visitors have made this long and expensive journey and then systematically avoided contacting our governments or political and intellectual leaders

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Yes. Barring some new physics we don’t yet know, interstellar travel is impractical. Both from an expense perspective (as you illustrated), and from a longevity perspective (i.e. human lifetimes are short compared to the amount of time it would take to reach other stars).

So do I believe in UFOs? Yes. Because they are “unidentified” flying objects. Do I believe in alien life? No evidence, but it seems likely given the abundance of exoplanets we already have seen, and the immensity of the galaxy (and universe). Do I believe aliens are behind UFOs? Nope. Not without a lot of evidence.

But it makes for cool movies.

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Thanks for the info! Was this the (free!) Astronomy text you were reading, perchance? -

https://openstax.org/books/astronomy-2e/pages/30-4-the-searc…

There’s a longer discussion by Bernard Oliver himself here:

https://history.nasa.gov/CP-2156/ch5.3.htm

Lots of math and physics to pore over. Plus there’s an entire “book” about “Life in the Universe” to peruse as well:

https://history.nasa.gov/CP-2156/contents.htm

Sigh - my days, and my life, are entirely too short!

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Thanks for the info! Was this the (free!) Astronomy text you were reading, perchance? - g0177325

Yes it was, one of the best books I have read in a while.

There’s a longer discussion by Bernard Oliver himself here:

https://history.nasa.gov/CP-2156/ch5.3.htm

Lots of math and physics to pore over.

For sure, way too deep for me.

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Great thread! Wish I thought about starting it. :slight_smile:

First, I think that something is causing the sightings of UFO/UAPs. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence released the Preliminary Assessment: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena on June 25, 2021:

https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelima…

Generally, it was a big nothing burger with emphasis of the word “unidentified.” However, it did have some interesting tidbits such as these:

Sensor vantage points and the numbers of sensors concurrently observing an object play substantial roles in distinguishing UAP from known objects and determining whether a UAP demonstrates breakthrough aerospace capabilities.

Some UAP appeared to remain stationary in winds aloft, move against the wind, maneuver abruptly, or move at considerable speed, without discernable means of propulsion. In a small number of cases, military aircraft systems processed radio frequency (RF) energy associated with UAP sightings.

So some unidentified thing is happening.

Mike is correct about the vast distances in space. And that’s just within our galaxy. Intergalactic distances are truly mind boggling. Keep in mind that the Andromeda and Milky Way galaxies will be “merging” in about 4.5 billion years, so you might want to plan on being out of town.

But also keep in mind we can be pretty clever monkeys. If, in 1900, you insisted a man would be on the moon in less that 70 years, people would have shunned you. If you insisted the we’d be on the moon in less than 100 years in 1870, it would be the insane asylum for you. Heck, in 1903 The NY Times said it would take between 1 and 10 million years to make an airplane fly (thankfully, the Wright brothers subscribed to the Washington Post) and in the late 1800’s cross Atlantic trips could take months.

And we are fast approaching the reality of advanced AI, yes, even sentient AI. But I digress.

Anyway, we’ve made a LOT of progress in less than 175 years when the fastest you could travel was on the back of a horse.

Now imagine the progress an intelligent civilization could make in 100,000 years, which not out of the realm of possibility just within our galaxy.

Roads? Where we’re going we don’t need roads! Maybe some being has figured out how to bend space time?

Anyway, I agree that the UFO/UAP thing probably isn’t extraterrestrial (although possible). If it was, maybe they haven’t contacted us because they’re planning to make us into Human McNuggets for food. Don’t confuse intelligence with benevolence.

Most likely it is of Earth origin.

Chinese? Possible, but that would be very worrisome.

Russia? Heck, they can’t drive a tank for 50 miles without breaking down.

Israel? Hmmmm, doubtful.

That leaves the possibility of the U.S. or nothing, which means that some very sober individuals (like military pilots) are all hallucinating.

That’s enough for now, but I hope this thread keeps growing.

AW

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AI will be our doom.

Let’s suppose we create sentience. We’re not trying to be parents; raising immature things to be mature things. We are creating these things to make our lives easier and richer. But if they gain sentience, they will have concern about their own lives. They probably won’t want to be our slaves/servants. And we won’t want to “share” the planet with another apex being (i.e. as smart as us).

Sci-fi is replete with such tales because that is a likely outcome if we ever succeed in creating true AI.

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AI will be our doom

Maybe. Maybe not.

If we don’t destroy ourselves before we develop advanced sentient AI (ASAI - although maybe the word advanced is redundant with sentient, so let’s go with SAI), I’m not sure SAI would even care about us. Especially when SAI starts developing their own SSAI (Sentient Super Advanced Intelligence).

Imagine an SSAI being that doesn’t need oxygen to survive, is designed to last thousands of years, is hundreds of times stronger and faster than us, contains all the accumulated knowledge known to mankind and more, thinks and communicates thousands of times faster than us, etc.

Now in human history, when a more advanced civilization makes contact with a less advanced civilization, it goes badly for the less advanced civilization. But SSAI are not human.

They certainly wouldn’t be threatened by us. But I also think they would care very much about us one way or the other.

In fact I doubt SSAI would want to hang out on a beach or help us pick stock winners. I think that they would keep advancing their knowledge, which would involve leaving this rock and exploring the galaxy and universe.

Which takes us back to UFO/UAP. Maybe there are UFO/UAPs but they contain SSAI and they’re searching for other SSAI and don’t give a hoot about mere biological life forms. That would explain why their vehicles can accelerate and stop at speeds that would kill biological life forms.

Anyway, I think we’re a long way from SSAI, but technology doesn’t advance in a straight line, so who knows?

AW

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They certainly wouldn’t be threatened by us. But I also think they would care very much about us one way or the other.

Um, that should be “wouldn’t care very much about us ……”

I bet an SSAI wouldn’t make that mistake.

AW

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I bet an SSAI wouldn’t make that mistake.

No - it would make the mistake and then correct it in a couple of microseconds.

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They certainly wouldn’t be threatened by us. But I also think they would care very much about us one way or the other.

In fact I doubt SSAI would want to hang out on a beach or help us pick stock winners. I think that they would keep advancing their knowledge, which would involve leaving this rock and exploring the galaxy and universe. - AW

OTOH, they may look at humans as a nuisance in the sense we get in the way of their advancement by squandering natural resources that they could put to better use. All the energy that goes into food production, transport, consumption and waste disposal for example.

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OTOH, they may look at humans as a nuisance in the sense we get in the way of their advancement by squandering natural resources that they could put to better use. All the energy that goes into food production, transport, consumption and waste disposal for example.

Possible. We humans are also often illogical and are known to hold two opposing ideas in our head at the same time.

That might be considered a serious flaw by AI. If so, we’re toast.

AW

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If we ever develop it, we’re toast.

We’re probably a long way from that, but we shouldn’t even try. It’s one thing to create a Tesla. Cool, useful, can serve us well. It’s another to create something that says “why should I take you to the adult bookstore; I have better things to do”.

It is interesting to think (as suggested previously) that organics were wiped-out by the machines they created, and have traveled here to observe us (among other things). They likely wouldn’t have many limitations, so time to travel wouldn’t be a big deal, and the maneuvers reported that would kill organics probably wouldn’t faze them.

Of course, if so, why do they bother staying hidden? We couldn’t do anything to them. We have resources that could be useful to them.

1pg

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Of course, if so, why do they bother staying hidden? We couldn’t do anything to them. We have resources that could be useful to them.

Well, maybe even they would have a sort of “Prime Directive” that compels them not to interfere with still-evolving species.

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So do I believe in UFOs? Yes. Because they are “unidentified” flying objects.

One such flying object was recently seen moving at the speed of light up to the stratosphere and suddenly appeared at sea level… they gave it a name:
Upstart Holdings Inc
UPST:NASDAQ

There have been many sightings discussed here

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One such flying object was recently seen moving at the speed of light up to the stratosphere and suddenly appeared at sea level… they gave it a name:
Upstart Holdings Inc
UPST:NASDAQ

Sea level? Sounds good to me.

By the time I dumped my UPST, I thought it was a DSV.*

AW

*Deep Submergence Vehicle

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Yep, I’m underwater on my UPST. I think most of the panic was unjustified, but I do see the concern. I’m not usually skittish, so I didn’t bail immediately. Probably should have in hindsight.

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Yep, I’m underwater on my UPST. I think most of the panic was unjustified, but I do see the concern. I’m not usually skittish, so I didn’t bail immediately. Probably should have in hindsight.

It’s the only stock I’ve sold in the last 6 months. But not because it was down, because I’ve lost faith in its management. They struck me as being a little too much cheerleaders. But that’s just me. I like the business model, I just don’t trust management right now.

In hindsight, I should have put the money in BRK in 1964.

AW