MAD doesn’t necessarily work if one of the participants actually is.
Sadly, Warrl is right.
Over the weekend, I heard General Wesley Clark interviewed on MSNBC television. Clark pointed out that the US military is intimately familiar with the actual “wargame” plans used by the Russian military in their annual training exercises and maneuvers.
According to Clark, essentially all of Russia’s conventional wargame exercises end with Russia prevailing in the same manner, as follows:
Russia’s established wargame strategies anticipate that eventually, Russia utilizes a controlled, small-payload Tactical Nuclear Weapon, which brings the conflict to an end or to a resolution satisfactory to the Russian military objective.
One may reasonably assume that a number of the other nuclear states (especially the smaller ones with die-hard dictators) also have established plans whereby their military are training for use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons. The following illustration from an old Outlook India webpage explains the concept explicitly:
In World War II, our benevolent USA established the indisputable fact that the use of nuclear weapons can quickly bring a protracted war to an end.
General Wesley Clark’s assessment of Putin’s possible military endgame left the MSNBC news interviewer speechless. It left me speechless as well, so much so that I was relieved when the host cut short General Clark’s interview for a commercial break.
As unthinkable as tactical nuclear warfare might be, my earlier post about the “neutron bomb” that NATO wargame experts discussed during the 1970s was precisely such a weapon.
Also during the 1970s, the neutron bomb was considered by some American military planners to have a convenient deterrent effect: discouraging an armoured ground invasion of western Europe by arousing the fear of neutron bomb counterattack. At least in theory, a defending NATO country might sanction the use of the bomb to annihilate Warsaw Pact tank crews without destroying its own cities or irradiating its own population.
I seriously hope that in the face of Western financial and economic warfare on Russia, China’s President Xi Jinping has sufficient influence over Vladimir Putin to convince Putin not to carry out his well-practiced tactical nuclear game plan.
By forcing Russia instantly into virtual economic servitude to China, Western economic sanctions may be our saving grace. China is no doubt aware that Putin’s behavior during this Ukraine invasion proves him to be emotionally unstable.
Let’s hope that President Xi and his CPPCC (The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference), as successors of the ancient Mandarins, have sufficient foresight to understand that if Putin dares to utilize even a tiny nuclear weapon in an effort to force Ukraine into submission, he may impair China’s future plans to subjugate Taiwan.
With Russia utterly dependent upon Chinese credit, banking, and petroleum purchases, Putin just might be forced to accept whatever friendly “advice” President Xi may provide in regard to Putin’s ill-fated and strategically idiotic total war against Ukraine.
Let’s hope “cooler heads” may prevail - even if those cooler heads just happen to be in the form of Putin’s sole “friend,” fellow dictator, and tyrant, Mr. Xi.