Ukraine left turning, slowly, in the wind

Yep, this is politics. Did voters get what they expected? Or too much of it? Too big a change? Where will they be next election? By then we should know which policies have succeeded.

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A rebuilding plan for Gaza was submitted by a coalition of Arab states. The US and Israel rejected the plan out of hand. Meanwhile the same US government that wants to destroy Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, is promising Israel all the arms and ammo it needs to flatten what remains of Gaza.

“I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say,”

Hard to tell the good guys, from the bad ones, these days.

Steve

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Expectations requires thought. I see no evidence of thought in the results of this election.

IP

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Or by then the US economy will be a rusting hulk of a shell, hollowed out by uncertainty, bad service, bereft of customers, left by the wayside to die, like a bankrupt casino or an undercapitalized airline.

Hard to predict, really.

One thing I know: businesses will not invest during a period of uncertainty. They will hunker down, pull in their spending, and wait for better times.

Item:

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Are we talking US politics, or Ukrainian politics?

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For every person laid off expect a subscription service to go away for software companies, less vehicles to be bought, less power and internet service and so on and so on. Now is not the time to invest but to pull in and watch.

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Ahhh a regime change. Another thing the Presidents followers used to be against. Looks like more of the same.

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At the rate they’re firing people, who would enforce this? It could be just bluster, again.

Any bets the FSB would rig the election, so a Putin friendly candidate “wins”, and invites Putin to come in and “save Ukraine from the west”?

Steve

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Since the Ukrainian refugees are here legally, the government knows who and where they are. Easy to round up.

Steve

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They already did that once. Ukrainians have learned, and will utterly refuse that path. In 2010 Yanukovych, the FSB candidate, won based primarily on his crucial promise to continue integration of Ukraine with the EU (not NATO!), a promise he reneged on after being elected. That led to the Maidan protests, which were murderously suppressed, which led to the Maidan revolution and the flight of the rapacious FSB types under threats of imprisonment for corruption and fraud at levels so staggering even the cynical Ukrainians were amazed and appalled.

This time the FSB backed Prez would no doubt be backed by an army of “liberating friends” searching and imprisoning and killing “anti-Russian elements”.
For a preview the Bucha “incidents”
Bucha massacre - Wikipedia the clearly trained to brutalize special troops
OMON - Wikipedia
and the infamous and supposedly independent and so deniable as a Russian entity
Wagner Group - Wikipedia
to see that there would be no limits to the suppression and extirpation of “non-existent never-existent inherently demonic” Ukrainian culture. For the intellectual case for such a genocide see Putin’s sinister screed
Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“ • President of Russia
and read and listen to comments of long time star scholars of the region such as Timothy Snyder
Timothy Snyder - Wikipedia

The Ukrainians know that failure in the current war would mean being pushed onto what Sun Tzu famously defined as “Death Ground”, where there is no way out but death now or highly probable death after an extreme struggle.

They would fight like they were fighting agents of hell, and I think Russia would find Ukraine undigestable.

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I think he has been clear. Either they release the rest of the hostages or else “all hell will break lose.” Do you think he is bluffing?

OK, so you think the election was a random event? Clearly voters had some ideas in their minds when making choices. Do they still think they made the right choice? We shall see.

And if the tariffs result in the changes requested those better times might not take much time.

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And for each one laid off maybe there will be less wage pressure. Inflation may actually slow a bit.

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Nope. Not bluffing at all. As openly stated, certain people want to steal that land, build a big resort, and make a lot of money, for themselves. If it takes a huge pile of the government’s money, and a lot of dead Proles, to make that happen, fine.

Steve

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Will the hostages come home? If yes, peace may be possible. If no, probably not.

Will the hostages come home? If yes, peace may be possible. If no, probably not.

The presence of a few remaining hostages is probably the only thing preventing all of Gaza being carpet bombed, and the total of the dead soaring into six figures. TPTB want that beachfront property.

Steve

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Yes, inflation does come down - in a recession. In a deep recession. Volker demonstrated it very well in the early 1980’s. Back to today: Never mind that it was already coming down without a recession between 2022-2024 (the so-called “soft landing), so let’s take a sledge hammer to the economy. That will fix things.

And if the tariffs result in the changes requested those better times might not take much time.

It will take years, at least, for any significant amount of reshoring to happen. You might find some abandoned factories, but they need to be retrofitted. Or new ones built, which also takes time. And supply chains and suppliers found - and none of that happens overnight.

Reagan’s first recession actually began in 1979 (hence Carter’s loss) and there was another shortly after, but the economy didn’t pick up again until 1983, when the price of oil dropped like a stone - just in time to give Reagan something to crow about. Without a gigantic kick like that, the economy would have sputtered along for several more years, most likely. Energy prices show up in everything: food, manufacturing, transport, distribution - everything. Tip: it’s not the price of energy that’s holding things up now.

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As one guy confessed on TV, “I should have put more thought into who to vote for other than simply filling out an on line questionnaire and vote the way it told me to.”

That it was 5 O’clock somewhere?

IP

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