Don't fall in love with Ukraine

Sending arms and humanitarian aid to Ukraine is important for U.S. national security since Putin would undoubtedly continue to attack other eastern European countries to reconstitute the “Russian Empire” if Ukraine fell.

But it would not be wise for the U.S. to be drawn into a war with Russia over Ukraine. Nor to make a commitment to pay for Ukrainian reconstruction. These would have a Macroeconomic impact on the U.S. economy which we simply can’t afford… not to mention the potential cost in lives and the danger of nuclear war.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/06/opinion/biden-ukraine-lea…

**The War Is Getting More Dangerous for America, and Biden Knows It**
**By Thomas L. Friedman, The New York Times, May 6, 2022**

**Things are actually getting more dangerous by the day.**

__For starters, the longer this war goes on, the more opportunity for catastrophic miscalculations — and the raw material for that is piling up fast and furious. Take the two high-profile leaks from American officials this past week about U.S. involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war... [Killing Russian generals, sinking the *Moskva*.]__

**The staggering takeaway from these leaks is that they suggest we are no longer in an indirect war with Russia but rather edging toward a direct war — and no one has prepared the American people or Congress for that....**

**America needs to help Ukraine restore its sovereignty and beat the Russians back — but not let Ukraine turn itself into an American protectorate on the border of Russia. We need to stay laser-focused on what is our national interest and not stray in ways that lead to exposures and risks we don’t want....We need to stick as tightly as possible to our original limited and clearly defined aim of helping Ukraine expel Russian forces as much as possible or negotiate for their withdrawal whenever Ukraine’s leaders feel the time is right....** [end quote]

We have all seen the U.S. get sucked into long, draining wars in foreign countries that did not improve U.S. national security. For heaven’s sake, we just left Afghanistan a few months ago after a 20 year war!

President Volodymyr Zelensky is charismatic and demanding. It would be easy to give him more and more. But the U.S. has to be careful not to fall in love with Ukraine, which is going to need billions of dollars of reconstruction which the U.S. desperately needs to spend on our own decaying infrastructure.

Ukraine politics is famously corrupt and fractious. Zelensky turned this common knowledge into the TV comedy, “Servant of the People” (currently on Netflix) which boosted him into the presidency in real life. The U.S. should not pump billions of dollars into a corrupt nation the way we did in Afghanistan.

Russia invaded Ukraine 10 weeks ago, which is the blink of an eye in the long, blood-soaked history of Russia. Russia has the deep resources of a large population that can be drafted and re-directed toward war.

It’s easy to admire a hard-fighting underdog that craves freedom from a tyrannical conquest. But the U.S. must not “fall in love” with Ukraine to the point of being pulled into direct conflict with Russia or a blank check for defending and reconstructing Ukraine.

Wendy

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One more reason Russia sees no reason to back down. They still think we are weak and they can win. So expect a long war.

Tying our hands behind our back in fear is not the solution!!

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Wendy,

Those are just his rushed scared opinions. Happy he made the deadline for inclusion and may he sell whatever brand of soap is advertised.

We all could have easily guess the US was feeding intel to the Ukrainians.

I have news for all of us, it is not just the US, all the powers except Russia and China are feeding intel to Ukraine.

It is not like Russia did not know that. There is no surprise here. Putin is offering to bomb us. Go right ahead. Oh wait that was last week. Milley called it highly irresponsible and Lavrov shut up. Any embarrassment for the Russians is well earned. The price paid in blood.

As far as rebuilding Ukraine, Ukraine in the EU, Ukraine in NATO? Absolutely after this war is over. Not to do so would be running scared and an invitation for the endlessly monstrous Russian governments to try again. Defeating anything Russian 50 years from now that puts up a militaristic nose is ON.

The concept of the west shrinking is completely OFF.

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One more reason Russia sees no reason to back down.

Paul,

I totally disagree with this. The Russian command and elite see a very good way to back down and completely end this war. It is over Putin’s dead body. The group of them are well aware of what one or two of them need to do. There is no surprise there for any of the lot of them.

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Reconstructing Ukraine will, by definition, be a requirement imposed by the West on Russia. Russia chose to attack Ukraine, so they pay for the damage they did AND to rebuild it. Not negotiable–period.

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Reconstructing Ukraine will, by definition, be a requirement imposed by the West on Russia. Russia chose to attack Ukraine, so they pay for the damage they did AND to rebuild it. Not negotiable–period.


Pronouncements, even those supported by the UN are easy, but as demonstrated by Israel occupying territory which the UN has objected to, a status-quo in-place during a military stalemate can turn into a permanent situation despite legal arguments and, as Wendy has pointed out, there are significant reasons why the US should not take a more direct role.

Jeff

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a requirement imposed by the West

Yes, but we should keep in mind that the treaty of Versailles didn’t work out all that well.

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But the U.S. has to be careful not to fall in love with Ukraine, which is going to need billions of dollars of reconstruction which the U.S. desperately needs to spend on our own decaying infrastructure.

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U.S. can do both. The U.S. companies would love to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine along with the EU. Remember the US rebuilding of Europe after WWII Marshall Plan, rebuilding of Japan after WWII, and the reconstruction of Iraq after the Iraq war, and many other post war reconstructions in Europe and elsewhere.

The U.S. needs to fall “head over heels” in love with Ukraine to ensure EU and US rebuild Ukraine for the sake of national security from a belligerent Russia.

Jaak

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Ukraine politics is famously corrupt and fractious. … The U.S. should not pump billions of dollars into a corrupt nation the way we did in Afghanistan.

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Ukraine is not like Afghanistan - very poor comparison. Maybe you liked the billions we pumped into Iraq - but Ukraine is not like Iraq - another very poor comparison.

Ukraine is in a battle for democracy in Europe and the world.

Ukraine is very Western and could become a EU member in the future. EU wants Ukraine to join EU because it is a great country with great industry, agriculture and educated population. EU countries share common histories with the Ukraine.

As the EU/NATO wants to help Ukraine push Russia out of their country. The U.S. wants to help the EU/NATO push Russia out of Ukraine, and to weaken Russia to the point that it will never threaten any neighboring countries again.

Jaak

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Russia invaded Ukraine 10 weeks ago, which is the blink of an eye in the long, blood-soaked history of Russia. Russia has the deep resources of a large population that can be drafted and re-directed toward war.

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I do not know where you get these unrealistic statements. They are not true. Russia during WWI and WWII was a country with deep resources, weapons and manpower. They lost over half of that after the WWI/WWII and the fall of the Soviet Union in 1990. Russia even today is not a homogenous population of Russians. The Siberians, the Finno-Ugrians, the Tatars, and many other ethnic peoples make up a large portion of current Russia population. They do not share the same goals with ethnic Russians.

Russia today is the less of a power than Germany and France combined when comparing weapons and military. Add in the other NATO/EU countries (excluding U.S., Turkey and Canada) and you will see that Russia is a crazed weakling.

Jaak

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It’s easy to admire a hard-fighting underdog that craves freedom from a tyrannical conquest. But the U.S. must not “fall in love” with Ukraine to the point of being pulled into direct conflict with Russia or a blank check for defending and reconstructing Ukraine.

Wendy

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You are a Nervous Nelly about Russia.

NATO (which includes U.S., Turkey and Canada) must be ready to step in and send in their military forces to Ukraine and face down Russian military - to force Russia military out of the Donbas and Crimean areas of Ukraine.

The people of America support Ukraine and want to see Russia punished.

Jaak

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Pronouncements, even those supported by the UN are easy, but as demonstrated by Israel occupying territory which the UN has objected to, a status-quo in-place during a military stalemate can turn into a permanent situation despite legal arguments and, as Wendy has pointed out, there are significant reasons why the US should not take a more direct role.

Jeff

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Rather silly comparison with Israel.

There are no legitimate reasons for NATO (which includes the U.S.) not to take a more direct role if Ukraine needs help. Ukraine is more important to U.S. than you think.

Jaak

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Wendy,

Russia must lose this war. This war can not drag on for more than a few years. The sooner we defeat Russia the better. That includes directly destroying their military.

Hemming and hawing over Russia as a threat makes Russia much more of an actual threat. Empowering a wife beater is not on.

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Any kind of war between the US and Russia over Ukraine wouldn’t be long; it would be quite short. I also believe that it is of critical importance that Russia loses, if that doesn’t happen, we can look forward to a future of a return to the kind of expansionist warfare that was typical prior to WWII. I expect China, in particular, to go to war with its neighbors, starting with Taiwan.

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I also believe that it is of critical importance that Russia loses,

Absolutely! And if anything was learned by the different outcomes between WWI and WWII is that Russia must be totally humiliated to get them to end militarism, just like Japan and Germany did as the consequence of utter humiliating defeat.

But the other lesson is that Russia will need some kind of Marshal Plan, not Reparations it cannot possibly fund.

Forget Revenge. Plan on Peace!

The Captain

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The people of America support Ukraine and want to see Russia punished.

With limits. Am not eager to see our boys drawn into a war of any kind.

IP

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Retired General Wesley Clark last night:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/how-to-stop-putin-from-…

“We have to be strong enough to do this,” Clark said. “This is the future of the international community. You can’t let aggression succeed and believe that everything will be the same afterwards. It won’t be.”

As the “big dog in international affairs” and the “most powerful nation in the world,” Clark said the U.S. needs to stand firm and provide Ukraine with the necessary resources to fend off Russia’s attack.

“We can’t allow ourselves to be self-deterred because he’s gonna fire four or five tactical nuclear weapons that are gonna be the first use of nuclear weapons and so forth. He would do that. Not only for battlefield effect, but to frighten the United States and NATO and cause us to draw back from support,” he said. “The best thing we can do to Vladimir Putin is say, ‘it doesn’t matter what you do, you’re gonna lose. And we’re gonna put the policies in place to make sure you lose.’”

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Russia today is the less of a power than Germany and France combined when comparing weapons and military.

And, I’ll bet that comparison was to Russia at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine … now, Russia has been whittled down significantly.

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General Wesley Clark is exactly right!

The Captain
freedom is not for free

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Russia must lose this war. This war can not drag on for more than a few years. The sooner we defeat Russia the better. That includes directly destroying their military.

Methinks events have shown Russia is a paper tiger.

It’s up to US to keep Putin’s Russia back on its heels until a more civilized leadership comes along.

Hemming and hawing over Russia as a threat makes Russia much more of an actual threat.

A war isn’t over until BOTH sides say it is over or one side is no longer capable of insisting that it isn’t.
– Desert Dave (Quotation, with attribution, permitted and encouraged.)

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