Feel free to double-check my numbers but when you break down the concentration risk for Upstart, there are some interesting findings.

Let’s start with Cross River Bank (CRB).

Here are the last 3 blurbs from UPST’s 10-Q’s:

**From Q3:**

*In the nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2021, fees received from CRB accounted for 65% and 59%, respectively, of our total revenue*

**From Q2:**

*In the six months ended June 30, 2020 and 2021, fees received from CRB accounted for 70% and 62%, respectively, of our total revenue*

**From Q1:**

*In the three months ended March 31, 2020 and 2021, fees received from CRB accounted for 79% and 60%, respectively, of our total revenue.*

If you break out those numbers, you get something like this:

```
CRB Revs
Q1 Q2 Q3
2020 51 6 38
2021 73 123 125
Non-CRB Revs
Q1 Q2 Q3
2020 13 11 27
2021 48 71 103
```

And here are the sequential growth rates for these:

```
CRB
Q1 Q2 Q3
2020 -87% 499%
2021 49% 2%
Non-CRB
Q1 Q2 Q3
2020 -18% 146%
2021 47% 44%
```

So what we find is that CRB is slowing down quite a bit but the other banking partners are really ramping up. That’s exactly what we want to see.

If we break out the concentration risk by quarter, we get something like this (note that this is by quarter and the 10-Q blurbs are 3, 6, and 9 month periods respectively).

```
CRB concentration
Q1 Q2 Q3
2020 79% 37% 59%
2021 60% 63% 55%
```

So we see that CRB accounted for 55% of revenue, down from 63% just last quarter.

And now for the Credit Karma numbers.

**From Q3:**

*For example, the nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2021, 52% and 44%, respectively, of loan originations were derived from traffic from Credit Karma*

**From Q2:**

*For example, for each of the six months ended June 30, 2020 and 2021, 49% of loan originations were derived from traffic from Credit Karma*

**From Q1:**

*For example, for the three months ended March 31, 2020 and 2021, 48% and 53%, respectively, of loan originations were derived from traffic from Credit Karma.*

Note that these are originations so I used the number of loans rather than revenue.

```
CK Originations
Q1 Q2 Q3
2020 40,423 6,661 44,947
2021 89,968 133,773 136,793
Non-CK Originations
Q1 Q2 Q3
2020 43,791 5,215 35,946
2021 79,783 153,091 225,988
```

And then the sequential growth rates would look like this:

```
CK Originations
Q1 Q2 Q3
2020 -84% 575%
2021 49% 2%
Non-CK Originations
Q1 Q2 Q3
2020 -88% 589%
2021 92% 49%
```

Once again we see that Upstart is doing a really good job of decreasing their concentration risk. These Credit Karma numbers are very impressive to me because it’s tough to create completely new marketing channels.

And the quarterly concentration numbers look like this:

```
CK as a % of originations
Q1 Q2 Q3
2020 48% 56% 56%
2021 53% 47% 38%
```

So Credit Karma concentration is down from 53% two quarters ago to 38% now.

All in all, Upstart is executing very well in terms of decreasing their concentration risk. It’s also helpful to see how fast they are growing outside of CRB and CK. This gives me more confidence they will continue to grow.

Best, Fish