First Zeihan’s factoid claim regarding China:
50% drop in birth rate over past 6 years
There are people over age 50 than under
China workforce is in early stages of collapse
China’s population has been in the decline for 20 years. But it wasn’t noticeable as it takes a while for that to affect consumption. The chickens have come home to roost.
China increased money supply 5 times the US rate. That inflates asset pricing that makes it difficult for young people. Think US real estate housing/apt pricing/rental & cost of higher education within US.
Now onward to US economic war upon China:
45th US president launched tariff policy against China
46th US president kept those tariffs in force and added technological tariffs and mobilized world attack upon China’s EV manufacturers that is limiting China’s export capability.
China is still the workshop of the world but it is approaching collapse.
Then what?
Zeihan proposes the reindustrialization of US using tariff revenue.
That does not make sense to me, due high US labor cost, except for strategic items such a as advanced semi conductor chips that go into US weaponry, some mining of strategic raw material, some metal production [steel, aluminum, titanium] & other strategic items. Items it makes sense paying up to receive.
The future collapse of China manufacturing has been noticed. And some of China manufacturing has been moved to Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, India etc.
That movement needs to accelerate. Being the last manufacturing facility in China before the lights turn is likely more expensive than moving production.
Mexico seems an ideal choice due to its proximity and labor cost.