Valuation update

Here is my occasional valuation update. Valuation for all our stocks have pulled back to more reasonable levels from the summer craziness. Despite all of us taking a huge beating, i.e. my YTD performance is at 36% from 79%. I think this is probably healthy for our stocks to return to less frothy levels. I’ve been steadily investing my cash I had built up during the summer. From a valuation perspective our various companies look like much better investments now than a month ago. I still don’t consider this a back up the truck moment, rather we are now in the middle to lower end of most of our companies standard valuation trading ranges. So far MSFT and SHOP have had pretty solid earnings which looks good for us. At this point the business outlook for all our companies looks very good and we should get a much better idea of how things are going over the next month of earnings.

My last post on valuation ranges for comparison, While doing this I noticed last time I had a typo in my ev/s for AYX, i think it should have been 18.…

My last post on NTNX referenced below…

My growth estimates were what I hope relatively realistic.

       EV/S           Forward EV/S           Growth used for forward estimate
OKTA   16.9           12                        40%
AYX    14.7           10.5                      40%
TWLO   12             9                         40%
ZS     19.9           13.3                      50%
NTNX   5.2            4.4                       17%  (per my last post)  
TLND   9.6            7.5                       30%  
PSTG   3.5            2.7                       30%
MDB    16.6           11.4                      45%

VCEL is pretty inexpensive right now but this quarter should answer a lot of questions (hopefully for the good)

Maybe someone can weigh on on NVDA and SQ.

Happy investing.


Maybe someone can weigh on on NVDA and SQ.

Can’t weigh in on Square, but Nvidia has a current EV/S of 10.5. Pick your growth estimate. 40% would yield EV/S of 7.5.

Current P/E is 33.7. 60% EPS growth would be a pretty big slow down. Forward P/E would be 21.1.


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