As we go into earnings I think it is helpful to have an idea where our stocks are in their valuation ranges. Here is a brief summary where some of our stocks are from an EV/S standpoint. My usual warning applies about EV/S. In general I don’t think it is super helpful to compare company A’s EV/S to company B. I find the EV/S to be more useful to compare a company to itself.
AYX - EV/S range of 13-23. Currently sitting at 21.3… With the stock market hiccup it got down to 16 (i bought a fair amount). The lowest I have seen it was 13 when there was a brief concern that tableau was going to eat their lunch. I also bought a bunch then. Assuming AYX hits or exceeds their guidance for next quarter then the EV/S would be 19 and possible a bit lower. Some space for price appreciation due to awesome revenue growth and minor ev/s expansion.
MDB EV/S range of 15-22. Currently sitting at 16.5. About the same as during the stock market hiccup. Depending on what you think about amazon this is either a great time to buy or a wait and see time. Personally I sold ? of my position at 80. Price is at 72 right now. I’d buy back in if the price gets low enough because I don’t think the amazon thing will affect MDB for a few quarters. If the markets decides to disregard amazon because next quarter will likely be very strong then we could see significant price appreciation. EV/S would be 14 if they hit their guidance.
OKTA EV/S range of 16-24. Now at 20. In december it got down to 16 and was a screaming buy in my opinion. If they hit their guidance their EV/S will be 18.5. I have a big position so I’m not buying. I’d happily buy them at this valuation if I did not own so much.
TWLO EV/S high of 16.5 (not sure on the range), dropped to around 13 in december. If they hit their guidance then ev/s would be 14.5. Great buy for a business standpoint, not so much from a valuation standpoint as they are at the tippy top of their valuation. Having said that…twlo had been doing awesome
ZS EV/S range of 18-24 with a very brief stay above 28 until the market came to its senses. Now at 23.8. They got down to 18 in december. I bought some. EV/S would drop to 22 and change if they meet their guidance. I see them as fairly valued right now. I’m not looking to add any at these prices. If i didn’t have a position I would happily start one at this value.
SQ EV/S peaked at 32 based on adjusted revenue (the revenue we should be looking at) now is 19, got as low as 15. I still have a large position in SQ. Normally I would be adding in times like this but I haven’t because of the management shuffle and they are forecasting higher expenses which I don’t think the market is going to take super well. I’ll happily be wrong on this one.
VCEL EV/S of 8, was around 6 in december. Next few quarters VCEL is going to show us if they can grow beyond the market that they had with carticel. If they do this will be a cheap price for them. If they don’t…well then this won’t be! Personally I think they are going to knock it out of the park. I have plenty and I’m not buying more. If i didn’t have a position i’d be happy to start one now.
NTNX EV/S of 5-10, now at 6.4. Next two quarters we will start to see reacceleration of earnings growth, or said another way, revenue growth will become unmasked. I’ve been buying, I think this one is a buy. Might not see price appreciation this quarter, but by next quarter I think we will.