Best reason for demographic decline is that “the future is bleak”. Birth rates are even down in the Nordic countries that have strong social nets and good support for families.
intercst
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At the same time, birth rates around the world (in both developing and developed countries) have been declining for decades. This is while global wealth has increased, famines decreased, education increased et cetera.
Maybe its a case of ‘things were better in the good old days’.
DB2
Best reason for demographic decline is that sex is fun but children aren’t, especially if the mother also has to work at a paid position. (Motherhood is a tremendous amount of work.)
As soon as women are educated and jobs are available so they can pay for birth control the birth rate drops. The only reason this is mysterious is that most of the people writing about it are men.
Speaking of men…in societies that are still traditionally male-dominated the women may even swear off men entirely as in South Korea.
The 4B movement (“Four Nos”) is a South Korean feminist movement where women reject heterosexual dating, marriage, sex, and childbearing to protest systemic patriarchal norms and gender inequality. Originating around 2017-2019, it focuses on empowering women by severing economic and emotional dependence on men.
Key Aspects of the 4B Movement
- The Four Nos (Bi-): Bihon (no marriage), Bichulsan (no childbirth), Biyeonae (no dating), and Bisekseu (no sex).
I happen to love men and always did. But my mother taught me about birth control as her mother taught her. I actually wanted children but we weren’t able to have any. But if I was able to have children I wouldn’t have more than 2. Which is below replacement.
Wendy
6 Likes
That is this year’s theory, according to the Times.
A few years ago, it was the wealth effect. Work hard enough to get up the ladder, and you want your kids to go to Harvard. It takes money. So you plan to have kids very late in your 30s. Then you only have one child, or it passes you by.
I buy into the wealth effect. Wealthy parents need more time to have children and afford a much different lifestyle. Expectations for the chidren are much higher.
Poor countries use children as a retirement plan for poor parents.
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Just the opposite.
Wealth is inversely correlated with birthrates. In other words, we have more kids when things are bad and less so when they are good.
This is called the demographic-economic paradox.
It is hypothesized that the observed trend in many countries of having fewer children has come about as a response to increased life expectancy, reduced child mortality, improved female literacy and independence, and urbanization that all result from increased GDP per capita,[10] consistent with the demographic transition model. The increase in GDP in Eastern Europe after 1990 has been correlated with childbearing postponement and a sharp decline in fertility.[11]
In developed countries where birth control is the norm, increased income is likewise associated with decreased fertility. Theories behind this include:
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People earning more have a higher opportunity cost if they focus on childbirth and parenting rather than their continued career.[11]
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Women who can economically sustain themselves have less incentive to become married.[11]
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Higher-income parents value quality over quantity and so spend their resources on fewer children.[11][12 ]
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And yet world population seems to still be upward?
2026 8.3B. Up 0.84% from 2025 8.2B.
% growth is declining. In the 1990s grew 1.4%.
ralph
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Yep, because most of the world’s population is not wealthy.
Countries with the highest birth rate are HIGHLY correlated with poverty.
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That has been true for a long time.
The Captain
I wish we still had Loren Cobb here. He is/was a real life mathematician on the order of Harry Selden of science fiction fame. He talked about mathematical models that predicted a lot of things well. One of his models predicted a slowing down and reversal of worldwide population at some point in the future. I wish he were here to talk about it. One of the many smart tmf posters no longer here.
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intercst
