A timely warning about the pressure on derivatives from the Bank of International Settlements - an $80 trillion problem that could blow up as interest rates rise:
I’m still buying gold
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Divitias,
The powers that be are running counter cyclical economics. Meaning in the great depression everything went bankrupt up front. Whereas now many things MIGHT go bankrupt at the end of the cycle.
The FED seems set on a less influential role in the economy at this stage, which makes sense. The fiscal policies do not direct control the printing press.
Therefor I advise against gold. But anyone can be wrong talking about the future. I am talking how the cards will probably be dealt.
Your link is a major find. I have not gotten my mind around it yet. Swaps are hard to fathom for value.
snippet
FX swap markets, where for example a Dutch pension fund or Japanese insurer borrows dollars and lends euro or yen in the “spot leg” before later repaying them, have a history of problems.
This fits into my postings on the Japanese and possibly the Europeans selling US paper going forward. It can spiral from here. The FED has plans with the Treasury to buy the long end of the curve. That might mean some printing, but it can mean creating demand in the US economy by 2024 instead of failure in our economy beyond 2023.
The problem is no one knows yet how deep this will go, how ruinous.
Hi Leap1
Here is the report, page 76 sums it up nicely
I’m a FCA (US = CPA) and this tells me that the balance sheets of the world are $100 trillion light on assets and liabilities - amazing 
Divatias,
I looked over pages 75 to 77.
The thing I have been wondering about with Swaps and China is discussed. Only Hong Kong SAR can trade these. And then only in three Asian countries.
Because this is USD FX I am assuming this is only Forex and not loans swaps. But I could be very wrong about that if the swap is based on corporate interbank needs.
The world trades in USD. The Chinese part of this is their tough luck. The Chinese can not really even get those swaps back to us. Not unless our institutions go to great length to buy them back. Buy bad swaps from China? Not on. In effect China has kept it as two separate markets.
The Chinese position is critical to us. It minimizes how bad this will be.
Yes there will more than likely be fall out in our market. Based on the JPY and EUR trade if the selling of US paper spirals.
People do not consider the risk of a collapse of derivatives - because if they did they would be petrified.
Jeff
(Who coincidently has 20% of his portfolio in assorted mineral miners - including gold diggers. Portfolio contains about 10% holdings in unhedged AUD and about 10% holdings in unhedged CHF. Somewhat over 50% of equity portfolio is made up of foreign companies).
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Some of the German corporations that are natural monopolies which ever that might be are probably the best buys right now. Or maybe next year.
Some of the German corporations that are natural monopolies which ever that might be are probably the best buys right now. Or maybe next year.
what do you have in mind?
33% mineral miners for me. Scattered around the world and avoiding politically sensitive areas. Plus gold and silver!
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I do not know the companies well enough in central Europe. That is where if you feed us some data we will follow and then add opinions over time.
The idea for instance is if every town has a brewery but there are a few major breweries those few would very profitably crowd out the small guys.
Investment banks and some countries are loading up on it:
China increased its gold reserves by 1.03 million ounces in November, according to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange at the start of December.
China holds the world’s sixth largest gold reserves behind the United States, Germany, Italy, France and Russia.
I think that China holds more gold than it says it has
I’m buying more gold as I feel that ‘Something wicked this way comes’ and reading The Bank of International Settlements figures about a ‘missing’ $80 - $100 trillion confirms my fears
No one ever got poor by saving silver and gold
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Some of the German corporations that are natural monopolies which ever that might be are probably the best buys right now.
what do you have in mind?
I do not know the companies well enough in central Europe. That is where if you feed us some data we will follow and then add opinions over time.
So… you are saying that German natural monopolies, for which you have no facts or data or even knowing what companies they might be, are probably the best buys right now?
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They should pay attention to Leap! 
The Captain
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I am done. Wont help you with this at all. There is more in a conversation than an assumption by you about me.
They could do a lot worse.
I would never listen to a dictator in charge of a central bank.
Interesting how the most conservative guys here who hate central control are willing to bet with a dictator who has complete central control including the central bank of his country.
I guess you two know what you are doing and think Xi knows as well.
If I were you two I’d go back to listening to me. 
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Just watch their investments in Turkey–if they dare make such a thing.
Yep “investments” the Chinese government does not give any money over. The Chinese government gets Chinese banks to loan the money. Many of the loans at this point have gone bad.
I am done. Wont help you with this at all. There is more in a conversation than an assumption by you about me.
Well, all I did was quote your own posts back to you.
If you don’t like it, or you think it sounds ridiculous… then don’t post it in the first place.
You do not know what you are doing. I get the feeling you are a “professional money manager”. Kind of funny.
You just posted a comment that’s literally nothing more than an insult and bizarre commentary on who you imagine me to be.
TMF has rules for posting, follow them.
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Hope you get better at this. Just having some technical stuff down is not the game.