Was he wrong on Bitcoin?

Here is Coinbase

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No. Just because something goes up in price does not mean that the decision not to buy it was wrong. Annie Duke uses the word “resulting” to describe the (faulty) analysis of past decisions that’s based solely on outcome.


“Was he wrong on bitcoin?”

Sure this qualifies as the dumbest question of the month. Might even win the Oscar for the year; surely it’s in the Top 10.


So if you ignore results, how do you measure ?

I didn’t expect him to buy Bitcoin but he was pounding the table that it is fraud.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Coinbase making new highs and minting millionaires.

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How is speculative interest in Bitcoin different… in type… from the tulip bulb mania of a few centuries ago? It doesn’t produce wealth and I don’t see how it is a store of wealth any more than those tulip bulbs. Yes, there is scarcity, but that shouldn’t be a reason because lots of things are scarce without being of intrinsic value… (thinking of my hair, for example).

Of course, I could ask a similar question about gold, but let’s stay on topic.

He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.


It’s still wise not to touch something outside of one’s core competence, be it winner or loser in the interim. It’s the commission of bad investments, not the omission of good investments that kills you in the long term. How crypto turns out is even a moot point. If it violates your first principle, just walk away. Most people don’t get it.

If Buffett spends his time FOMO and engages in speculations he can’t value and don’t feel comfortable, he won’t be where he is today.


It isn’t ignoring the results, it is simply not accepting your preferential timeline.

It would be like those that were preaching Zoom was going to be the next Netflix and wondering if everyone that thought otherwise was wrong simply because Zoom was trading at an all time high of over $400. Those of us that [edit: thought] such was not sustainable were ridiculed at that time.

Perhaps he is simply prescient.

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Eloquently put! If enough people practiced this long enough, the snake oil (a.k.a. hot stock tip ) industry would be soon defunct

I wouldn’t say I’m completely ignoring results. Just including the assessed risk and the information (and competence) one had at the time the decision was made. Not to mention a weighing of the benefit/detriment to civilization that Buffett and Munger included.

They might add their typical, “If it’s not worth doing, it’s not worth doing well.”

Think about it… tulip’s can perish and Bitcoin cannot. You can grow tulip and there is a limit on how much Bitcoin you can mint, …

If you are comparing it to tulip or even gold, why not to paper currency? Except that it is issued by government? And they can do what they please with that, they can debase it by printing large amount of it, or suddenly your regime is no longer in control and the paper loses its value or …

Bitcoin is a store of value for someone living in volatile regions or in high inflation regions similar to Gold.

I think this particular question should be viewed from WEB, and Munger’s strong comments about Bitcoin. Even thought is is a Trillion $$ asset class, only time can say, whether it is here to stay.

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But they did speak about Bitcoin/Crypto with authority. Repeatedly derided it in may public forums.

I am no crypto expert but I am just looking at the chart.


Do you think he was hallucinating when he said the following about bitcoin?

'“The urge to participate in something where it looks like easy money is a human instinct which has been unleashed. People love the idea of getting rich quick, and I don’t blame them…It’s so human, and once unleashed you can’t put it back in the bottle.”

One could have just looked at the charts of many “.com” stocks at the turn of the century. Doesn’t mean it was wrong not to have bought them.

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Duh. He should have bought GOOG.com and AMAZON.com.

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Thanks for being an excellent person missing the point… thereby making my point.

He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

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You remind me the old Berkshire crowd, whenever a tech stock moves up immediately they will scream CSCO 1999, tulip mania, yada, yada. They were so focused on CSCO, never woke up to tech stocks, until WEB bought Apple, suddenly everyone can see the benefits of tech but limited only to Apple.

It is not that divi or me don’t understand bitcoin or miss the point, rather those who oppose don’t have a very good rationale. There is an excellent book by Lyn Alden, I would recommend a read. It may require multiple reading to understand it.

Lastly, I think those who are still debating whether Bitcoin, missing the fact that there are ETF’s now and investors (AKA Boomers) are happily buying those ETF’s and many investment managers are figuring out how we can recommend those ETF’s without getting ourselves exposed to lawsuit. :slight_smile: Like emerging market, gold, Bitcoin will find some allocation on many portfolio’s in coming years.

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How does one go about valuing Bitcoin, in order to determine whether the current price is too low or too high, so as to make an investment decision?


How to express it better than that.

This show the value of Bitcoin in $

No, that’s the price of Bitcoin.

The value of Bitcoin is what it is really worth.

So as investors we try to buy when the price is less than the value, and sell when the price is higher than the value.

How do you decide when to invest?