Watching VRTX for a Call

As I said on MSFT, I didn’t like how it looked on 10/10 compared to SPY so I said that I may look for another ticker that has relative strength and a possible breakout which was my thinking on META and MSFT. The latest one that I’ve found is VRTX. Here’s the chart next to SPY for comparison:

It seems to mostly follow SPY at varying velocities. Since 10/3 it has been clearly stronger, but really it’s been stronger since September. I did this chart as 60-min just so that it would cover a longer period of time. I normally monitor the stocks for entry and exit using 5-min charts. The following is VRTX 5-min with my ideal plan for an entry.

VRTX 5-min 10-10-23

Ideally, what I would want to see is for the VRTX price to come down and set a lower low, go up a bit, then go back down and set another lower low. Simultaneously, I want each of my oscillators to set two higher lows. This sets up a 3-point divergence for a higher probability of a more significant reversal in an upward direction. If I succeed in timing the bull reversal, I will then hope that VRTX will keep going until it breaks resistance points above. The first major point is the recent 10/10 high of 362.40. With the next at 363.48 from 10/9. The next and last is the all time high of 367.00 set on 7/21 which is only 1.8% away from our 10/10 closing price. If VRTX breaks out past the all time high, there may not be a lot of resistance above because there were never any trades above so the prices have little meaning to existing stockholders.


Hmm… Looking at this one more closely during the trading day I’m thinking that the relatively low volume and pretty wide bid-ask spreads might make it a little harder to trade options. You really would have to set an aggressive limit price and hope for favorable entry, then do the same on your exit. And then on stops you’re likely to get killed if things don’t go your way. I could keep watching, but I’ll likely not be trading it.