Watchlist Candidate: HUBS

Something to consider: Hubspot (Nasdaq:HUBS)

Overview: Hubspot started in 2006 as a kind of “Salesforce Light” for small companies. They went public in 2014 and have been evolving into an overall SaaS “marketing automation” platform for small and medium size companies. Their philosophy is that a company website is a company’s best marketing tool. Hubspot sells a variety of modules to enable conversion of web traffic into sales, tools to analyze web traffic to see what leads to “conversions”, SEO (search engine optimization) tools, and tools to identify which content is resonating with customers.

What does this mean? When you go on a website and there is a “chat” feature, when you sign up to “learn more” about a product and receive an automated series of communications, when you are led down a process to the “buy now” button–that is marketing automation. Hubspot tries to bring all of these different elements together to create higher sales growth for their clients.

Side note: I’ve looked on and off at how my company could potentially use something like this for a couple years. A couple years ago, my impression was Hubspot was one of several “CRM Light” companies. Now, my impression is that they won the battle against the other small CRM players, but have also transformed into an integrated suite of software.

The Numbers:
Revenue growth has been accelerating:
Quarter Revenue YoY Growth%
Q2 2020 $203M 25%
Q3 2020 $230M 32%
Q4 2020 $250M 35%
Q1 2021 $280M 41%
Q2 2021 $310M 53%

Current estimates are for Q3 revenue to be $330M, which would be 43% YoY growth.

Total customers have grown annually at 40% from 86672 to 121048 from Q2 2020 to Q2 2021

Average subscription revenue per customer is basically flat at $10,000/yr/customer

Valuation:
*Market cap is currently $33 billion with sales just passing $1 billion annually.
*EV/Sales ratio is currently 30, so like many other companies here it is already richly valued
*Unlike many other companies, HUBS should start turning profits this year and next and gross margins have been steady at 80%+

Competition:
HUBS seems to have carved out a unique niche in the web marketing space. As noted above, they seem to have beaten out the “CRM light” competition for small companies. Yet, what they do is significantly different from big CRM companies like Salesforce.

Many independent marketing companies offer some of the same marketing services, but not software based. In my recent search, it was much more common to find marketing companies selling themselves as “Hubspot integrators”. I didn’t find anyone offering to integrate any other software suite into a web marketing campaign.

The downside:
Looking at Hubspot marketing material, they make it look like it is “seamless” to integrate Hubspot into a small company sales/marketing process. The reality is similar to Salesforce–it takes a lot of work from the salesforce to enter information into a new platform. Furthermore, while annual subscription revenue to Hubspot is $10,000, marketing companies charge about $150,000 for the full implementation.

In short, implementing Hubspot is a big commitment which takes significant resources for most small companies. This probably puts some kind of limit on the growth rate.

That said, it also means that once customers are signed up on the platform, like other SaaS companies, the repeat revenue will likely continue for a very long time.

My conclusion:
The total addressable market for Hubspot is millions of small and medium sized companies, so they can keep growing at a high rate for a long time. Salesforce has a market cap of $270B and I don’t think that is out of the realm of possibility for Hubspot.

That said, the growth rate isn’t as impressive as some of the other companies this board follows, and the valuation is nearly as high as many other companies on this board.

So, for now, I’m watching this one. Your comments are welcome.

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Hi SaunaFool,
I was in Hubs some years ago and haven’t looked at it since. Thanks for bringing it to my attention. That was a nice write-up. I’m impressed with the revenue acceleration, but I’m a little suspicious because that sequence starts with the Covid quarter (when it may have been artificially depressed to that 25%), so I think you should also look at what its growth rate was like before.

Furthermore, while annual subscription revenue to Hubspot is $10,000, marketing companies charge about $150,000 for the full implementation.

Are you saying that Hubs charges 15 years of subscription charges to install the software??? No way!!! I think you should clarify that. That would make its model nothing like a normal SaaS company. With average revenue flat at $10,000 it seems like no land and expand at all. It’s just install and pay.

Best wishes and looking forward to hearing more.

Saul

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The $150,000 is what some of the marketing companies (I.e. Hubspot integratos) want to charge to build a new “Hubspot enabled” website. Hubspot gets the software fee, but there is a lot of heavy lifting in content creation and design that needs to be done.

So, most of the up front cost goes to the marketing company. Of course companies with their own marketing department can avoid this cost, but the smaller companies that are the target market for hubspot generally don’t have internal marketing capabilities. Either way it is a lot of work and will likely put some limit on the growth rate.

It’s unclear from the numbers how much “land and expand” is happening. Their quarterly summaries give a general “average revenue per customer” but they don’t show if the average customer spends more over time. In any case, the value they report is basically flat.

Sales growth did benefit from the pandemic as companies were forced to move the sales process online. I do believe this trend is permanent, so I suspect Hubspot still has a long runway. Next quarter revenue estimates if accurate would result in 40-45% growth. Not bad, but not accelerating.

If revenue growth stays ~40% and revenue per customer stays flat, they might be a good investment at the right price. To meet the hyper growth requirements of other SaaS companies, some metrics still need improvement. I’ll check back in a quarter or two.

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Revenue growth has been accelerating:
Quarter Revenue YoY Growth%
Q2 2020 $203M 25%
Q3 2020 $230M 32%
Q4 2020 $250M 35%
Q1 2021 $280M 41%
Q2 2021 $310M 53%

Sales growth did benefit from the pandemic as companies were forced to move the sales process online. I do believe this trend is permanent, so I suspect Hubspot still has a long runway. Next quarter revenue estimates if accurate would result in 40-45% growth. Not bad, but not accelerating.

Latest quarter revenue beat forecasts by 5%(I do not track this and only recently started watching HUBS). If this were to hold, they’d do $346.5M in Q3, which would be 52% YoY.

Over 50% YoY revenue growth, sequential QoQ growth of over 10% for 4 straight quarters, with a 5th likely, Throwing off good FCF and with a EV/S (TTM) of 30.

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I just thought i will add a little more hisotry to the numbers presented by saunafool.

     Q1      Q2      Q3     Q4    FY
2018 $115   $122M  $132M  $144M  $513M 
2019 $151M  $163M  $173M  $186M  $675M 
2020 $199M  $203M  $230M  $250M  $883M
2021 $280M  $310M                $1280est.

     Q1  Q2  Q3  Q4   FY
2017                  38.6%
2018                  36.6%
2019 31% 33% 31% 29%  31.6%
2020 32% 25% 32% 35%  31%
2021 41% 53% *43%e* 56%e

There seems to be a clear acceleration in 2021, from consistent mid-30's to mid-40's
at the minimum. They already did 590M in first half and were consistently generating 
revenues of 15% more in second half of the year compared to first half. Along these lines, 
we can model conservatively 330M and 360M for the next two quarters (in line with the
 guidance for Q3) bringing the total for FY to 1280M <b> at a growth of 45%. A clear 
acceleration. </b>
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I work for a marketing company that specializes in Hubspot implementation/marketing automation. I work for the software development arm of the company which supports the mktg side in everything from the simplest workflow logic config tweaks in HubSpot to full-on custom systems built around HubSpot’s API.

Looking at Hubspot marketing material, they make it look like it is “seamless” to integrate Hubspot into a small company sales/marketing process. The reality is similar to Salesforce–it takes a lot of work from the salesforce to enter information into a new platform. Furthermore, while annual subscription revenue to Hubspot is $10,000, marketing companies charge about $150,000 for the full implementation.

While Hubspot does have a content management system/website hosting platform (CMS Hub) and implementing a fully customized mktg site on CMS Hub can be an expensive ordeal, it doesn’t have to work this way.

There are also off-the-shelf site themes (think of them like a WordPress template) that a smaller, more budget conscious shop can use to get up and running without too much effort if they’re willing to utilize a template offered from the Hubspot marketplace.

Also, you don’t have to utilize CMS Hub at all in order to take advantage of the CRM or marketing automation. You can embed Hubspot forms into any site no matter where it is hosted in order to capture leads back to the CRM and then market to those leads from there. It’s basically as simple as dropping a script into the HTML of your site. For those interested, here’s an article that describes how painless this can be:

https://knowledge.hubspot.com/forms/how-can-i-share-a-hubspo…

You can also drop Hubspot’s tracking ‘pixel’ into any website. It doesn’t give you as robust tracking as if the site were hosted in CMS Hub, but it still offers insight into your site visitors.

My company has done full-on CMS Hub implementations, but we’ve also done custom integrations where we’re dropping a Hubspot form into the standalone site’s Contact Us page in order to capture leads. In my experience Hubspot really allows companies great and small solid options to match budget various budgets. We’ve helped everyone from multi-billion dollar companies down to mom-and-pop company owners leverage Hubspot with success to the level their budget allows.

I’ll leave it to others smarter than me on whether or not HUBS would make a good investment, but as a SAAS company, I find it to be a flexible solution for companies of all shapes and sizes.

Cheers,

Eric
no position HUBS (but have considered it off and on for a while)

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