Absolutely. We have had seemingly endless discussions about Tesla on these boards for years now. And the Tesla bulls (many of them anyway) have a pattern of taking Elon’s predictions as if they were written in Ecclesiastes, regardless if they make sense or not and not limited AVs either. This seems to be moderating a bit lately as some skepticism seems to be creeping in. But that’s been the pattern. We had a thread that went on for a couple years about Elon’s prediction of 20 million vehicles per year by 2030. One side was pointing out that prediction required implausible rates of growth and the other side saying “But Elon said so!”
There is no comparable cohort of posters giving full throated endorsement of whatever Mobileye’s CEO said, so it doesn’t get discussed.
Since we’re talking about the investment case, Tesla is priced like a tech company. Part of the argument supporting that valuation is that/has been Tesla has 70 million miles or data or something and years more experience in this area than anyone else. Hence, they have an AV moat, which helps justify the stratospheric stock price. Tesla will crack the code first, make bazillions in software subscriptions, and Teslas will fly off the shelves because everyone will want this new technology. And I agree, if Tesla cracks the code first, that is likely what would happen.
However, Tesla has just now achieved what Waymo did four years ago. And there are a number of other competitors that are hot on Tesla’s heels.
Cruise control is a driver’s assist tech that is has been around for a long time. Originally, it was an expensive option that only available on high end vehicles. Now, AFAIK, you can’t buy a car without it and it is getting to where adaptive cruise control is standard on many models.
That’s the way driver’s assist features are heading in general. At some point, everybody will offer Level 5 assist. But I think it will be gradual and whatever moat Tesla has is shrinking by the week.
I find it amusing that people who have nothing to do with Tesla are obsessed with and follow Elon closely. They debate it endlessly what Elon said when.
Maybe I’m a fanboi but I still think that WAS possible had Elon not yanked Model 2 and not burdened CyberTruck with all sorts of new technology that delayed the release and increased the price. And the, of course, had Elon not gone into DOGE.
That’s like judging a chess match solely on piece count while ignoring positional advantages. If Elon’s correct, which he may or may not be, then Tesla’s approach will enable faster scaling to more cities/vehicles than Waymo within a couple years. And in terms of applying that technology to personally owned vehicles, Tesla is probably far ahead for that market opportunity than Waymo/Toyota.
Again, only if Elon is correct. If Waymo is correct, and full autonomy cannot be achieved with only vision and instead will require LIDAR and some degree of mapping for many years to come, then they will be very far ahead in applying the tech to personally owned vehicles.
Hmmm… Haven’t we been regaled with criticisms of Tesla cause Tesla is collecting LIDAR data in its “test cars”?
That suggests, at least to me, that IF LIDAR is required, then Tesla has experience, software, neutral net, Dojo, Colossus, xAI, … ie a path to success.
That’s the bull case. Let me make the non-bull case. Tesla’s approach will be successful if and only if Tesla can get to Level 5 autonomy with the current hardware and sensor package.
Also, how fast to we expect Tesla to scale into more cities? As far as I’m aware, Tesla has not applied for AV ride hailing permits in any jurisdiction. Because the permitting process is time consuming, it does not appear Tesla is in a rush to scale ride hailing. Which is likely the prudent approach, but not fast.
And if Waymo is first by a few years, just as they were with riding hailing, then they get all the scale advantages.
Yes, but the claim and the selling point is that the tech will be applied to currently existing cars with just a software update. You can do some quick math to see what that means. I imagine most owners would want full autonomy. So that means millions of FSD subscriptions at $100/month, with millions more each year. They’ll be making more money on the software than they will on the cars.
But if they have to go back and incorporate LIDAR, then they are just another AV company.
Haven’t we also been told that Tesla is using Lidar in a limited role, and hasn’t integrated it deeply into any of their software stacks (and obviously it isn’t part of the hardware of their vehicles)?
Tesla has chosen a different approach to autonomy than Waymo (and most other automakers in that area). If they’re not correct - if autonomy can’t be “solved” with just vision (or can’t be solved economically with just vision) - then they’re way behind Waymo and others in developing a LIDAR-oriented AI driver and/or the mapping necessary to support it.
To add more specifics on the word limited, for data, this means that Tesla has a very large training data set that is camera-only, and a much smaller contemporary data set that is camera with lidar.
I wouldn’t criticize Tesla for combining sensor data (eg, camera plus lidar) for some level of validation. Seems to make sense to me, but I really wouldn’t know enough to opine on the best sensor configuration for any given use case. We’ll find out whenever we get some level of apples-to-apples safety benchmarking.
On a recent CNBC interview, Waymo’s co-CEO allowed for an eventual them not using LiDAR:
Start about 19:45 in.
Her answer is “Not yet” to the question of “a world in which you don’t need LiDAR.”
Level 4 is certainly good enough - depending on the areas incorporated into that. And so the race is on to see how fast the L4 geo-fenced areas expand.
This will be an interesting area to watch. Waymo started driverless rides in Dec 2020, so it’s been 4.5 years to get to what I believe is only 5 cities: Phoenix, SF, LA, Austin and recently Atlanta. Their plans are for 3 more cities: Toyko, Wash DC, and Miami in 2026. That’s pretty slow.
If Tesla is correct that their approach needs between none and just light pre-mapping, and with Tesla’s ability to manufacture autonomous cars (just plain Model Ys that Tesla makes at the rate of a hundred thousand a month) they may indeed scale faster.
Waymo has no apparent scale advantages. They just bought Magna Stenyer’s assembly line for the iPace and are bringing from Europe to the US, with the eventual goal of making 2,000 vehicles in 20 months. Even at full capacity, its only tens of thousands of vehicles a month - assuming Waymo still wants iPaces in 2028.
To the question of whether she can even see a world in which LIDAR isn’t necessary.
Her point was that when you go far enough down the road of technology, you might not need what’s necessary today - but you have to go through today’s step in order to reach that later world. You couldn’t skip over the punchcard/magnetic card stage of computers, even though we didn’t end up using that tech forever.
It’s very possible - even likely - that even if vision-only AI drivers are impossible today that they will one day possible. But there can be a very, very long gap between today and then.
She talked about Waymo’s history of using LiDAR and how she wouldn’t have wanted to have started without it. That doesn’t mean Tesla was/is unable to start without it.
I’m trying to figure out how you would use LIDAR data in the training if your goal is to not use it for actual use. How do you construct a dataset that has anything to do with it if you know that any data it provides cannot be used in the dataset?
When it comes to my investments, I ponder “what if my thesis is wrong?”.
I still have high confidence in Tesla/Musk’s ability to overcome any technological obstacles.
Those with low confidence in Tesla/Musk really shouldn’t be invested in TSLA.
So far, WRT TSLA, “key man risk” caused me to prune my position.
Did Waymo run a demonstration of autonomous driving for ride hail service using stock cars (off a regular production line) 4 years ago???
Not only that, but lane keeping is also rapidly becoming a standard feature. That’s why Tesla calling it “autopilot” is absurd, it’s not autopilot in any sense of the word, it’s just fancy cruise control that keeps speed, distance, and lane, like most other modern cars out there can do.
You would think! But I’m still waiting for other cars to allow me to walk up to the car, open the door, get in and sit down, drive away, park, get out of the car, shut the door, and walk away. As far as I am aware, there are no cars like that, and that’s one of the easiest features to duplicate. The other Tesla feature that I adore, it that many people can share a car with ease, no searching for keys or anything like that. Just last week, one of our Teslas finished charging in my driveway at about 1am, and one of my kids that lives nearby needed it early the next morning, so at about 1:30am, I drove it over to their place, parked it in their driveway, and walked home. Next morning, they simply walked up to the car, go in, and drove to work. No muss, no fuss.
I bet the Chinese EVs have all the relevant features.
As slow as it is, that’s still much faster than Tesla, right? Robotaxis were included as part of the Master Plan Part Deux back in 2016 and in 2019 Musk said there would be robotaxis on the road by 2020. I mention that only because Musk views it as core part of the future business and has for a long time. This isn’t a new project they are just getting around to recently.
AFAIK, Telsa has not announced plans or even applied for AV ride hailing permits in any jurisdiction. We know the permitting process can be lengthy (except in Texas), so so it is unlikely there will be any expansion this year, and maybe not even next year.
So with Elon banging on the robotaxi drum all these years, why hasn’t Tesla started the permitting process? The only logical reason I can think of is they aren’t ready to start it.
The qualifier was if Waymo has a couple year lead. Which they seem to right now. The scale advantage is time. Waymo is increasing the number of paid rides exponentially, sometimes by double digits per month.
As of May 2025, Waymo’s fleet consists of over 1,500 vehicles across San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Austin, with plans to expand to 3,500 vehicles by 2026.
