WE are in Bull Market--For How Long?

The S&P 500 closed up more than 20% from its October lows on Thursday, marking the start of a new bull market.

At 248 trading days, the recent run back to a bull market was the longest bear run for the S&P since 1948. The resilient rise of the benchmark index came amid the most aggressive Federal Reserve rate hike campaign in four decades, regional banking turmoil and incessant recession worries that haven’t fully materialized.

Per Bloomberg, the number of subprime auto borrowers in December who were at least 60 days late on their payments increased by 5.67%, up from a seven-year low of 2.58% in April 2021.

For a greater perspective, the rate was 5.04% in January 2009 when the Great Recession was at its peak.

In December 2022, the average new car loan rate was 8.0%, an increase from 5.15% the year prior. For subprime borrowers, the rate is typically higher. One individual interviewed had their 2013 Dodge Journey repossessed after they fell behind on the monthly payments. The monthly bill for his car hit $1,000, including insurance.

Why is that so insanely high? Because of an equally insane 26% interest rate.
OK some of these people are idiots. But it is unlikely all are idiots.

After jumping to nearly 34% during the pandemic, the personal saving rate is now roughly an eighth of that.
And have reached a historic high in debt.

May foreclosure-related filings, which include default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions, were up 7% from April and up 14% from a year ago, to 35,196 properties, according to the real estate data group ATTOM.


The current bull market in the S&P500 is based entirely on a new bubble in fewer than 10 companies that are involved in AI. The rest of the SPX has not risen.

The real economy is slowing as you documented. It’s completely divorced from the SPX.



As offered before, the entire forty years of “supply side economic miracle” has been floated on an ocean of debt.

The solution, given a Shiny government, will be more personal bankruptcy “reform”, to make all debts nearly as hard to discharge as a student loan, dressed up as “personal responsibility”.



@WendyBG that is the most concise summary of our position I have seen so far. Thanks, it is a very good guide.



Succinct post on crux overlooked data. I`m with Leap in screaching an extra special rec and thanks.

david fb
(not in securities now, but have friends begging for help, and am looking at the calendar telling me that in 10 months I will have a monstrous part of my investment funds coming back to me and needing new “employment”.)


Hi David fb,

When you say “investment funds”, are you referring to bonds/ treasuries etc. or alternative investments? From your post, I am guessing that you hold negative view on securities, and so wanted to learn what other investments you felt were safer in this environment.



Sorry for the vague language and thanks for the question.

By “Investment Funds” I meant a privately organized pool of loans put together by a group of my friends in Los Angeles fundin freight logistic properties and firms in Los Angeles that could not or chose not to use banks for their capital needs as Covid was closing in. That investment has yielded a little more than 10% annually and the loans close out between two months and ten months from now. That private group currently has nothing as tasty on the horizon and so I am looking around.

From the nifty fifty on down to the more recent dotCom boom and now the ten AIs i see this as one of the ways bull bear turnings get seriously distorted away from the real economy.

I am also reviewing a set of Real Estate properties I own, about half bare land and half residential in locations with relentless growth due to the whims of rich people. I will probably stay the course with all of them because the rich will not stop looking for habitations relatively safe from international disasters and crime, where they find amusing landscapes, food, traditions, and status… especially if civil wars or the end of the world are coming. “Eat Drink and be MERRY for tomorrow we will mumble away” has guided my investments ever since the USA election of 2016,

Putin’s ugly mug in Ukraine reinforced my theory that these are abnormal times for investing and an extra skepticism about investment rules and strategies based on what had been long reliable patterns.

david fb


Great post…wish I could recommend this multiple times…Sane voices during insane times makes it a bit more easy to navigate these turbulent times. Thanks again for explaining your thoughts so clearly!