Surprise! The thread “Share the pain” is still alive: Share the pain 😲 - #69 by WEBspired, Chinese stocks are no investable!! What has changed this past week?
2 Likes
How do you feel about DIS now? Considering it myself.
1 Like
‘rationalwalk’ used to be a valued poster on the BRK board, but some time ago he (she?) quit and started their own website https://rationalwalk.com
I have no affiliation with the site.
I subscribe to their free weekly newsletter, ‘rational reflections’, and I greatly enjoy the commentary, even more so now that Jim (mungofitch) no longer posts on the BRK board. I just thought other people might like to know about it.
They also have a paid “Business Profiles” service, which they explain isn’t a stock tip service, but consist of in-depth profiles of companies that they find interesting. These interesting companies might, or might not, be worth an investment at some indeterminate point in time, but that decision is left up to you after reading their insightful analysis.
9 Likes
I think Disney+ is seriously underwhelming. Compared to Netflix, Prime, it sucks big time. But they keep adding users; At what point users will get tired of Disney+? I think they are seriously canabalizing their TV users (Kids) with Disney+ and will hit maturity much earlier and will see bigger churn. Of course, that is my view, and there is no data (in their results) that is supporting that view.
Ive just subscribed to Disney+ the Marvel franchise is excellent I’m hooked! Horses for courses 
3 Likes
We have Verizon cell service. They recently upgraded us to unlimited data with Disney+ and Hulu, ESPN and actually lowered our cost. I wonder how many of us Verizon users contributed to the Disney+ increase in subscribers.
Not amazed by it, but am not a movie person. After a few days of binging on the superhero movies, DH rather lost interest as well. Hulu is a different story. Very well organized, keeping track of what’s next in your viewing of a series and letting you know when new episodes come up. Can’t be said for all streaming platforms. We also gave up our Amazon Prime subscription, since we were not using the streaming or radio anymore and you still get free shipping when ordering anything over $29, IIRC. Left with the most recent increase in Prime.
IP
2 Likes
I like James Carville, but there’s not been an election in at least the past 50 years in which this observation was less apt, and happily so. Looking forward, the threat of a GOP-led threat to refuse to raise the debt ceiling, thereby risking default, appears to be much diminished but (as of today) not entirely off the table.
5 Likes
The market moved up sharply because inflation is 7.7% and down from 8.2%. Not because of elections. When politics defines your life, you want to believe the world revolves around your view. But not. Your political views are not shaping the economy. Get it.
The drama of debt-ceiling is what it is. Don’t blame only GOP, democrats when they had opportunity they also enacted the drama. Let us be clear, in this two party system, both play games against the public, and not against each other. Somehow, the aspirations of 330 million can be captured in a binary choice is ridiculous. Both parties made sure, there is no scope for others. That’s a completely different conversation, one I am least interested in.
5 Likes
For the record, that’s simply not true. The debt-ceiling vote was a routine matter until Gingrich weaponized it. It’s been GOP exclusively since then who’ve used that threat. How Republicans weaponized the debt ceiling
10 Likes
hmmm you may want to get your facts double checked. PolitiFact | Fact-checking Biden’s claim that raising debt limit is usually bipartisan
Those instances by Dems were purely symbolic, of no practical significance. The votes to raise the debt ceiling were in hand and everyone knew it. In contrast, the recent GOP threats–including the one that was/is a concern currently–pertain to when the opposition could credibly threaten to shut down the federal gov’t and even trigger default.
Look: elections matter. They shape key fiscal policy and international relations decisions. That’s esp. true when the parties are as polarized as they are currently. Those decisions in turn have undeniable impact upon markets. I would have thought these facts would be utterly uncontroversial. But I guess some folks will try to make an argument out of anything.
10 Likes
Those instances by Dems were purely symbolic Keep believing what you want to believe, after all it is your money.
1 Like
Lets go a step further…the market is not the economy. However, the market is governed by actions of investors and not always rational. Because of that, the markets can be irrationally influenced by irrational investors.
I suspect the market was up in part because of elections, and when the Dems retained the Senate majority on Saturday, told DH that I expected the market to go down on Monday. As far as the single datum point showing a reduction in inflation, IMO the Fed will see that as too little to make any changes in continuing to increase rates, possibly sticking with the 0.75 bps increases given the rocket up of the market post CPI last week. They will feel a need to temper what they see as irrational exuberance in the market.
FWIW,
IP
2 Likes
the markets can be irrationally influenced by irrational investors.
The NFT mania was clearly irrational, many, most rational people questioned it. You cannot take those extreme examples and paint the market in general. For every “irrational” seller/ buyer there is a rational person on the other side of the transaction.
Now set aside that, you are free to have your opinions. The fact is, the market moved up on Thursday after the CPI print and at that time senate control was not in the hands of Democrats. Now, under most circumstances, 7.7% inflation would be a kryptonite for the market, but here we are coming down and circumstances are different. What Fed will do is beyond me, I haven’t seen anyone come out say " now that democrats have retained senate" I am going bullish rather investors are saying inflation is going down, it is time to buy for YE rally.
Your own link to PolitiFact points out that the Republican’s use of the filibuster in 2021 on a bill to raise the debt limit is a new obstruction, which Democrats have never used to prevent a majority party from passing a debt limit raise.
PolitiFact doesn’t cover the instances in the past when Republicans who had a majority refused to raise the debt limit. Democrats have never done that, if I’m not mistaken.
Symbolically voting against a debt-limit raise when it’s clear the bill has the votes to pass is a different matter entirely than intentionally precipitating a crisis with a vote that actually counts.
13 Likes