I think the “fear trade”, i.e., buy safety and sell growth has played out. Berkshire is one of those beneficiary of that fear trade. Any sign of the ceasefire or another 4 weeks, by that time weather changes and will force Putin to bring this war to some conclusion, either ramp-up the attack in the next 4 weeks or basically west is smart enough to give him some face saving victory and he retreats, will flip the market to the upside. Because of Ukraine situation, FED is not going to do anything beyond 25 basis point.
I am thinking of selling Berkshire and deploy that on some beaten down names.
“I am thinking of selling Berkshire and deploy that on some beaten down names.”
I have also thought of trimming more but thank I suck my thumb like usual.
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Beaten down names? History might suggest caution on the belief that the SAAS stocks, disruptors, and other such previous market blasters will lead again. Seems likely to me that a trend towards less globalization is in process, that the local scene for making stuff…
,and that the PE’s of big tech too continue to compress in a more permanent manner. Who knows?
Remember it was envy that compared us to Saul’s and Cathie and that trait moves from one place to another. Ahhhhh, back in the late 1990’s and particularly 2000 the Berkshire board I was on got cremated by the lust for Cisco, Intel, EMC, the “buy tech with sales and profits” them went through the roof after dotcom busted.
As those type stocks fell further the obsession grew even greater, but not for long.
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