It’s been bouncing up and down recently, and today it’s down almost 10%.
I can’t find any news.
Goldman Sachs has downgraded most of the solar energy sector including SEDG. It’s confusing because, just in a week, positive news(for the most part) changed to negative (led by GS). I have a small position hedged by short puts and calls.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=As3wA1T8bQye98NGiWIKoVEG…
HP
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It’s confusing because, just in a week, positive news(for the most part) changed to negative (led by GS).
And so goes the game the analysts play!
That is why most who do their own investing in individual stocks (at least those on the MF boards) don’t pay much heed to analysts’ upgrades/downgrades.
Invest per your own DD, not someone else’s that may have an ulterior motive.
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Invest per your own DD, not someone else’s that may have an ulterior motive.
Agreed, Foodles. I bought more SEDG today.
Bear
Bear, time to sell everything before you go broke…
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I bought more SEDG today.
Hi Bear, I don’t know if you already have a big position in SEDG, but pouring more and more dollars into a sinking stock often does not have a happy outcome.
Just my thoughts,
Saul
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pouring more and more dollars into a sinking stock often does not have a happy outcome.
Saul,
How is that different from what you’ve done with SBNY?
Bear
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just ask those who kept pouring money into INFN…
sorry Bear, didn’t want to come off as brash or matter of fact.
If I smelled gas leaking from my neighbor’s home, I think it would be my civic duty to warn him.
As in your case of adding to your SEDG position, which I think you informed everyone on your monthly update that it already makes up 20 percent of your portfolio, I just had to say something.
I am by far no investing expert, but I have steadily increased my wealth slowly with stock investing mainly through buying and holding great companies for the long term. You can look at my portfolio holdings to see what I own. I have held steadfastly through ups and downs and plan to have most of them for the years to come.
Sure, I understand if you want to speculate. At the end of the day, you are the one responsible for managing your portfolio. I just wanted to nudge you a little to rethink what you are doing.
We all want you to do well.
8 Likes
pouring more and more dollars into a sinking stock often does not have a happy outcome
How is that different from what you’ve done with SBNY?
Sorry, Bear, I just felt a need to put in a cautionary word. I didn’t mean to hurt your feelings. SolarEdge was as high as $43 a year and a couple of months ago. It has lost well more than half its value already (it’s currently worth just 34%of what it was worth then). Unless you have a good grasp of why that is happening, and what will make it all turn around, I wouldn’t put more into it. There are enormous “potential” problems. And you probably have enough already that a turnaround would move your results nicely.
SBNY hit $163 about a year ago. At its lowest ($114) it was worth 70% of its highest, which isn’t an abnormal swing. I bought it at an average price of about $130. At the lowest, I was down 12.3%. At today’s price of $123.30 I’m down just 5.2%. I think I understand why it is down, but also feel I understand all the reasons that it won’t stay down (which I have explained at length). I haven’t added any in four weeks as it has become a large position. I specifically didn’t add any when it shot down to $115 two weeks ago and one week ago.
I don’t really see any comparison between the two companies. However, I could be wrong about both of them. I’ve been wrong in the past about stocks. It’s just my opinion.
Saul
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And do be cautious with your investments. I think a number of us are worried about you and trying to gently nudge you in the direction of caution.
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I bought more SEDG today.
Whoa! Unless you have money to burn I’d avoid SEDG for some time. I wouldn’t consider a long position unless the stock was back over $25 and had the financial performance to back that up.
This sounds a lot like speculation. When you do that, you do it with money you can afford to lose.
Tread cautiously.
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http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/09/09/buy-solaredge-but-s…
* What JMP likes about SolarEdge
On the whole, JMP is pretty optimistic about the solar industry, rating three of the six stocks reviewed today market outperform (aka buy). The analyst is particularly enthused about inverter maker SolarEdge.
According to GreenTechMedia, no fewer than four rival solar inverter makers have gone bankrupt, or shut down their operations, over the past three years. In stark contrast to those failures, JMP calls SolarEdge “the market share gain story in this industry.” With less competition, and plenty of cash coming in to fund its own operations, JMP says "we do not see any signs of that trend reversing"
…
Granted, above article is a month old, and mighty Goldman Sachs just downgraded the whole solar energy sector, and there’s a 30% short postion on SEDG. Still, price matters, and the stock is much better priced now than a year ago, 6 months ago. I’m buying a little now, 15-16. (If nervous, a covered call can be written to easily increase basis by 5% by November.)
HP
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I can’t find any news.
This is the story you need to know, inverters (like many if not most analog electronic devices) are commodity products, there is no moat. This Motley Fool article (only ten days old) explains the problem with the business model:
A Terrible Way to Invest in Solar Energy
Inverter suppliers have risen and fallen as developer preference has changed – and that’s a terrible position for investors to be in.
Travis Hoium (TMFFlushDraw) Sep 28, 2016 at 9:04AM
Solarcity Copper Ridge School
IMAGE SOURCE: SOLARCITY.
Solar energy has been a difficult business to break into over the past decade, particularly for companies that don’t have a direct interaction with customers. The latest to hit trouble is Enphase Energy, producer of microinverters and once a high-flying initial public offering in the solar space. The company recently said it will lay off 11% of its workforce in an effort to save $20 million to stay float.
Enphase follows financial trouble for Power-One, eventually acquired by ABB (NYSE:ABB), and even weakening performance from SolarEdge Technologies (NASDAQ:SEDG). And the struggles for inverter, optimizer, and other equipment suppliers won’t end here.
http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/09/28/a-terrible-way-to-i…
If analysts are saying that other suppliers going broke means less competition, they are doing a very superficial analysis.
Other suppliers going broke is what your company might have in its commodity future. As a fellow at the GTR forum used to say, “Commodities might be harmful to your wealth.” They are the wrong way to bet with our investment money.
Denny Schlesinger
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I think that a lot of the money to be made is in the batteries, since they need periodic replacement. This is assuming they don’t get too commoditized.
SolarEdge doesn’t manufacture batteries. They produce optimizers and inverters only.