Whither oil prices?

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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The bank lowered its third-quarter 2026 Dated Brent forecast by $15 to $75 a barrel, analysts Martijn Rats, Charlotte Firkins and Amy Gower said in a note dated Monday.

“Exports via the Strait of Hormuz are recovering faster than expected,” they said. Meanwhile, “the ‘twin solvers’ that allowed the market to adapt in the last few months – i.e. high US exports, low China imports – are largely still in place.”…

Morgan Stanley said it counted 35 oil and gas tankers exiting the Persian Gulf through the strait on Thursday — the first time the level returned to the 30 to 40 range typical before the conflict started in February. To balance the oil market in 2027, flows through Hormuz only need to recover to about 65% of the pre-conflict level, or about 11 to 12 million barrels a day, the bank said.

DB2

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Why do oil exports need to “recover” anyway?

Oh, someone made a really bad decision in the middle east that

  • put the US in a worse strategic position
  • cost maybe $100 billion and counting
  • knocked out oil/gas infrastructure that’ll take years to replace
  • pushed US gas above $4/gallon (and raised oil and nat gas prices globally)
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Whatever the reasons, it is now a given. Try to estimate the future.

Whither – To what place, result, or condition.

DB2

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