06/19
Have not asked AI yet, but I think it is safe to assume, there is more traffic transiting the Strait than there was last week. I guess Frontline (FRO) CEO commented last week, and had provided a company data-point. FRO have/had 5 vessels stuck in the MEG basin
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4602820-frontline-ceo-sees-hormuz-tanker-traffic-rising-quickly-if-us-and-iran-strike-a-deal
In late May 2026, during the FRO earnings call, the CEO had shared there are around 55 VLCCs waiting to enter the Strait of Hormuz. For the owners or lessors of these vessels, there is more logistical motivation, and less profit motivation. Will these vessels finally get their chance to re-enter the MEG basin and load crude oil?
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Well, it turns out there is a reason why traffic will not return to mid Feb 2026 levels in quick fashion – Mines. Those have to be cleared first, from the main passageway of the Strait. Ships current utilize two narrower channels - one near Iran, one near Omani coast.
Figures provided by AI 20 - 55 vessels daily.
Also: Israel. Also: Hezbollah. Also: Iran. Also: Trump. Also: History. Also: (add to list here)
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@Goofyhoofy - You’re right about those additional factors. Those are definitely elements that could dictate how many vessels get through the Strait of Hormuz. That said, at least last week suggested a bunch of vessels made it out. Already there are suggestions from Iran that the passageway has been closed, while other observers count ships making it through.
In another thread, I mentioned the sales price for a pair of 3-yo Suezmax vessels (over $110M each). From a buyer perspective, while there is an uncertainty factor, the buyer must be counting on the stronger spot rates to be around in the near term. Otherwise, I’d say they are overpaying for an asset
According to Google, about 150 ships made it through the Strait last week. Prior to the war, that was the daily number.
There’s a long way to go before this gets back to normal. (The number was truncated to a dozen or so on Sunday and Monday because of inapt remarks by one particular politician and the resulting Iranian reaction. I don’t want to say who, but he’s also wrestling with an algae problem in another body of water.)
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More data. From the BBC, per yesterday, about 250 tankers and 440 cargo vessels still in the Gulf. Fair number of vessels carrying Iran cargos