This is about how well or how badly we are doing with our war with Israel against Iran.
Who is winning now?
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I didn’t watch the video, but I don’t see how the blockade is going to work. It is basically a game of chicken to see who can take the most pain. We might be able to inflict the most, but I bet Iran can take the most.
And are we really willing to stop a Chinese or Indian ship on the high seas? How about a French ship?
I can see lots of ways this doesn’t end well.
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Supposedly we are only stopping Iranian cargos. Not a huge impact, Indian and China want a resolution the US wants, but Iran does not.
Egyptian pov
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Blocking shipments from Iran is possible. Enabling shipments from our allies in the gulf will do much to help the global economy. But Iran will continue to attack them as long as it can.
Opening the Straits of Hormuz to other traffic remains a major requirement.
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You are not going to reopen the Strait by imposing yet another blockade. If anything, an effective blockade—on either side—means that nothing will pass through at all. In fact, Iran may not even need to physically stop ships; the mere threat could be enough to drive up insurance risks and deter traffic. Meanwhile, the United States in the attempt to intercept whatever is let through by Iran will only reinforce the closure and seal it completely.
The U.S. has already failed to bend Iran through military means—despite overwhelming air power and sustained pressure. The current approach appears to be a continuation of a long-standing strategy: weaken Iran by targeting its economy. But this is not new. Variations of this policy have been applied for decades, and yet Iran has endured. There is little reason to believe that intensifying the same approach will suddenly produce a different outcome.
Geographically and materially, the U.S. may be insulated from the worst consequences, while Iran will bear the brunt directly—and likely endure it. The rest of the world is feeling the impact. There may be protests and resistance, but in practical terms, many countries will have no choice but to absorb the fallout.
At its core, this situation risks imposing widespread global costs. Make no mistake about this: those costs are being driven primarily by the policy choices and the actions of the United States, in support of Israel in West Asia.
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We have not attacked the IRGC in numbers.
Yep, and we’re not going to. Iran knows this.
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How do you know that?
BTW what was done towards the Pope was awful. But I think Leo should not be involved in US politics. Leo should be involved in Iranian politics. LOL
The US lacks the will. We had a long discussion about the effects of strategic bombing in another thread that I think got locked or deleted, but bombing alone is known to be insufficient to effect regime change. Multiples more tonnage of bombs were dropped on North Vietnam than on Germany and Japan combined and NV never surrendered.
Instead, what tends to happen is bombing rallies the civilian population around the government and gives the government an excuse to expand its control. Effecting regime change would require boots on the ground and the US government lacks the will. Iran is well aware of this.
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Just to expand, the various theaters of war in World War II included Germany, Japan, Britain, Italy, Greece, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Sicily, Midway Island, the Marianas, Romania, Hungary, Soviet Union, Baltic States, Poland, Balkan, Yugoslavia, Croatia, Manchuria and the Eastern Coastal regions of China, French Indochina (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia), Singapore, Dutch East Indies, Philippines, Burma, British Malaya, Hong Kong, Guam, Wake Island, Borneo, Solomon Islands, and others.
Take all the munitions expended by both sides in all of those conflicts. Add it all together. Add in the equivalent TNT power of the two nuclear bombs dropped on Japan…
And we still dropped more ordinance on North Vietnam - a territory roughly the size of Georgia - and lost. We didn’t get “regime change”, we didn’t get a citizen uprising, we didn’t get much of anything except 50,000 dead Americans and trillions wasted for no reason.
It’s telling, I think, that Vietnam is now one of our most enthusiastic trading partners. Their lives are better, our lives are better, except of course for all the dead people.
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However, it occurs to me that Japan did surrender without any US boots on the home islands.
DB2
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Sure, and I’d be willing to say you might get that if you decided to drop two nukes on Iran - but I sort of hoping that’s not in the plan.
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Absolutely correct, and this reinforces my point that bombing alone is insufficient. By August 1945, Japan hadn’t won a major land battle since Corregidor in 1942 (minor tactical victories only). The IJN which had once been the most powerful navy in the world had been reduced to a few destroyers. The air force was down to a few hundred planes and lacked fuel and pilots to operate them, mostly reserving them for kamikaze attacks. Russia had just declared war and throttled a formerly elite unit in Manchuria. The army was preparing for homeland defense by distributing pointed sticks.
In short, Japan couldn’t put up a fight anymore. Only then did the Emperor decide it was hopeless and surrender. And even then there was still a faction that wanted to fight on.
So, I think it is possible to effect regime change in Iran. But the US lacks the will.
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The bombs dropped on Japan were not nuclear hydrogen bombs. The first hydrogen bomb, codenamed “Ivy Mike” (based on the Teller-Ulam design), was detonated by the United States on November 1, 1952, and was approximately 1,000 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima
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Right. Careless use on my part. They were “atomic” bombs, not what has come to be known as “nuclear”, or “hydrogen” bombs which are technically “thermonuclear” bombs.
Best civilian explanation beetween the two was in one of Tom Clancy’s early novels. Think it was “Sum of All Fears”, where he detailed how an “atomic bomb” was the trigger used to detonate the “thermonuclear bomb.” He had a knack of turning military and scientific jargon into readable prose. Made a fortune, of course.
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The straits are still not open with the US stopping Iranian ships. Oil prices will continue to be high until US and Israel stop the war.
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At least youve come around. You defended a nuclear iran 2 weeks ago.
On April 16, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz recorded 11 total verified transits, characterized by a steady outbound flow of crude tankers and dry bulk vessels amidst high regional tension.
DB2
Sure. Provide a link, please. Thanks.
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You said it would make little difference to us if warheads went off in the middle east. What do you think you were saying?
Now is a good time for you to rewrite the record.