According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, cited by the Financial Times and other media, at least one tanker operator is understood to have paid around $2 million as part of an agreement to transit via Iran’s newly established “safe corridor” along the Strait of Hormuz. This is a route near Iranian territorial waters around Larak Island, where the IRGC Navy and port authorities are reportedly conducting visual vetting and verification of vessels. Based on recent reports, at least nine vessels have used this corridor, mostly from diplomatically cleared nations such as India, Pakistan and China.
While Iran is negotiating such arrangements with operators on a case-by-case basis, its parliament is debating formalised surcharges. Iran, in effect, is creating a “protection” racket in Strait of Hormuz.
Seems like an intelligent approach to the problem. And Donald shouldn’t object to it since he also loves “protection” rackets as well as extortion. Of course, he may insist on a cut- just like in Venezuela- perhaps directed to a favorite offshore bank account.
It does make sense - and it reduces their vulnerability to U.S. threats to invade Kharg Island (such as they were). Seizing Kharg is an economic threat - it’s not a military target any more, but it can deprive the regime of economic resources. If Iran can build up reserves and establish alternate economic flows it can tap to continue prosecuting the war, it makes seizing Kharg less damaging to them.
Oh, an insanely risky move. Iran can’t rebuff the U.S.’ conventional military strength. Their regime’s path to surviving this operation depends on being able to use asymmetric fighting to try to get to whatever might cause the U.S. to have to leave. Precipitating a global energy crisis is one of their biggest levers. Being able to run up some actual troop casualties would be another - and putting U.S. troops within drone or short-range missile distance, rather than on carriers a few hundred miles away, gives Iran at least an opportunity to do that.
This writer for the Wall Street Journal still thinks the answer is military; boots on the ground and all that…
What U.S. Marines Can Do to Help Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Marine Corps unit expected to arrive in the Middle East next week could help seize Iran’s strategically important islands near the strait
The addition of a Marine Expeditionary Unit provides Trump with additional options to pressure Tehran, according to the former and current U.S. officials.
Iran controls a number of small islands off its southern coast, which the regime uses to host oil infrastructure, base missiles and conceal boats in caves. The most economically significant of those is Kharg Island, positioned at the northern end of the Gulf roughly 300 miles from the strait that serves as Iran’s main oil export hub. Trump threatened Monday to strike the island’s oil pipelines, after a [U.S. military attack last week] destroyed key military facilities there.
Instead of destroying Kharg’s oil infrastructure, the Marines could seize the island so the U.S. could use it as leverage to reopen the strait, according to experts and former officials.
“Kharg Island, 90% of their oil comes through there. So you’ve got really two choices,” said retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, the former commander of U.S. Central Command. “You can destroy the oil infrastructure, which would give irrevocable damage to the Iranian economy and the global economy, or you could seize it to use as a bargaining chip, which doesn’t then permanently degrade the world economy.”
Imposing a charge on letting anyone else’s tanker go through the straits, as noted above. It won’t completely substitute for their own oil exports, obviously. But it will allow them to build up a little more in the way of economic reserves now (while their own oil is flowing) and give them additional economic resources if the U.S. were to try to shut down their own exports.
Again, shutting down Iran’s exports seems like a real low-probability event. The U.S. is doing everything we can to put a lid on oil prices - including possibly lifting sanctions on Iranian oil, for Pete’s sake. Even though that gives them a sizable economic shot in the arm and lets them sell at full global market price to boot. It sure doesn’t seem like we would entertain the price disruption that taking their oil off the market entirely would involve - but Iran would rather have some extra money in the bank just in case, I’m sure.
That does pose the question, though - how does seizing it give you a bargaining chip? You only have leverage to the extent that you’re willing to close Kharg for a non-trivial length of time. But are we willing to close Kharg for a non-trivial length of time? It would spike oil prices, potentially force China to enter the theater, likely lead to Iran striking other Gulf States’ energy infrastructure again, and possibly lead Iran to fully close the Strait.
Again - when you’re fighting in an elevator, having a hand grenade doesn’t give you a whole lot of extra leverage….
Thank you. That’s why I posted it - it looks like the brilliant solution for the guy whose only answer to everything is a hammer. I didn’t (don’t) see how landing US Marines on Kharg - or any of the other smaller islands - does anything to improve the situation. Are we going to try to control the entire coastline of Iran through that section? It’s 100 miles long and 20 miles wide: perfect for taking drone shots from 1,000 miles away, with limited maneuverability for both commercial and military ships in the Strait.
Are we going to close shipping ourselves to deprive Iran of oil revenues? Are we going to let some through but not others? How? Again, with the drones…
(I am pretty sure our military is YEARS behind even thinking about drone warfare because: not big and shiny, no Generals graduated to private industry for drones yet). I would be surprised if we have any adequate response to this.
If I am right, and if Iran doesn’t cave (and it’s hard to see why they might, at least not without consequent damage to US economics) then we’re in for a very long period of elevated oil pricing - along with all that follows from that.
That augurs inflation, higher interest rates, recession. Just ducky.
There is another possible target for those U.S. ground forces. There has been discussion of a mission to attempt to seize the Iranian uranium stockpile believed to be under a collapsed mountain in central Iran. It would be a difficult mission- fight your way there, secure the area for weeks or months and somehow extricate this material for removal. Its condition is unknown and probably can’t be known until one starts excavating. It makes Operation Eagle Claw seem like a walk in the park.
I mean….we’re already making war on them. Killing their leadership, destroying all their military assets. That’s one of the downsides of starting an actual, full-on war - once you’ve already escalated to that level, you lose almost all of your ability to deter almost all bad behavior. Iran always refrained from directly closing the Straits as a weapon against their regional rivals for fear that it would lead to a massive retaliatory response, but once the massive retaliatory response has already happened then there’s no longer a reason for them to hold back.
You’re already trying to flat-out kill them and completely end their regime - what threat do you use to try to dissuade them from extorting the tankers? That you’ll try to “super-kill” them?
I’m in agreement! It would likely be a epic fiasco. Past missions to secure enriched uranium have taken weeks of meticulous planning and concerted diplomacy. Aside from all of the other likely and potential obstacles, the U.S. may no longer possess the expert USG staff to pull off such a mission. But would that stop Donald? I doubt it.
Just noting an alternative to the Kharg Island scenario that others are focusing on.
Oh, sure. There are several hypotheses about why a marine expeditionary force is being sent to the area. Seizing Kharg is one. Going in and getting uranium is another that gets mentioned. I’ve also seen the possibility of using them to briefly seize and/or clear out other islands in the gulf or straits that Iran may be using to stage drones or missiles or speedboats to threaten marine traffic.
The other, though, is that we might be moving them into the area not for any predetermined reason, but just for optionality to respond to unforeseen events. That way if things go pear-shaped - even outside of Iran proper - you’ve got a resource for that kind of mission in place immediately, rather than having to wait for them to get there. For example, if the embassy in Baghdad was about to be overrun by Iranian supporters, you’d want to have a resource in the area that could help secure our people and get them out.
Despite the President’s recent claims that opening the Strait of Hormuz would be “so easy…to do, with so little risk,” there’s no simple solution to forcing it open. At least, not quickly.
To your point, it looks like the 11th MEU (Marine Expeditionary Unit), the 31st MEU, and the Boxer ARG (Amphibious Ready Group) are the units being deployed to the area. ARGs are fairly self-explanatory. MEUs are typically tasked with the following:
The 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit is a forward-deployed, flexible sea-based Marine air-ground task force designed to provide geographic combatant commanders with a rapid-response force capable of conducting amphibious operations, selected maritime special operations at night or under adverse weather conditions, crisis response and limited contingency operations, to include enabling the introduction of follow-on forces in order to support the theater requirements of geographic combatant commanders from the sea, by surface and/or by air while under communications and electronics restrictions.
And they simply say that they’ll keep extorting for safe passage as long as the war is going on. They don’t lose anything by doing this, because you’re already trying to kill them and destroy the regime without limitation. They know that your decision to leave (or not leave) will be determined by other strategic concerns that aren’t related to whether they extort or not - so they will extort. Because you have nowhere left to escalate to, because you’re already trying to kill them all with the full might of the U.S. and Israeli military.
Again, you can’t “super-kill” them. So once you’ve pulled the trigger on doing everything you can to kill them, there’s nowhere to go from there.