Who Won the US-China War

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-won-the-u-s-china-trade-war…
The WSJ link is currently an open link.
If the WSJ link shuts down go to:https://mishtalk.com/economics/who-won-the-us-china-trade-wa…
Mish has a large portion of the WSJ article there.
Between 2018 and 2020, the U.S. and China fought the biggest trade war since the 1930s

Not surprising both sides have claimed victory. And of course the Covid pandemic has intensified the economic pain.

Nearly 80% of manufacturing executives who have operations in China have either moved part of their work to the U.S. or plan to do so in the next three years, according to a survey by Kearney, a management consulting firm.
The above if carried out means a major impact upon trade in China.

Many other nations benefited from the US-China trade war.
US imports from Vietnam more than doubled. US Taiwan imports increased 80%. The EU & Mexico also benefited from increased exports to the US.
Still, the changes have hardly left China out in the cold. Chinese manufacturers also rushed to set up operations in Vietnam. More than half the fresh exports from Vietnam to the U.S. during the trade war originated from Chinese-owned factories, estimates Patrick Van den Bossche, a Kearney partner. Since 2017, Chinese investment in Vietnam more than doubled to $1.9 billion in 2020.

There is no consensus whether the US or China war won the war. Vietnam & Taiwan certainly were victors.

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…and Mexico might be a big collateral winner, but not yet because of growing mistrust due to

– Prez of Mexico is disdainful of USA and lets it show too often
– recent USA policies were insulting to Mexico and Mexicans dislike that

But I see clear signs of big investments in Mexico manufacturing by Asian and European players as well as expansion of the existing investments by USA corporations.

A deeper North Americsn free trade zone could be extremely valuable to Canada, USA, and Mexico, but they would have to overcome a lot of mutually destructive stupidity and finally “fix” Central America, still primarily a theater of the absurd ill managed colony of USA with the exceptions of clever Costa Rica and totally insane Nicaragua.

david fb

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A deeper North [American] free trade zone could be extremely valuable to Canada, USA, and Mexico, but they would have to overcome a lot of mutually destructive stupidity and finally “fix” Central America, still primarily a theater of the absurd ill managed colony of USA with the exceptions of clever Costa Rica and totally insane Nicaragua.

Steve,

Given the fact that Canada is the best neighbor anyone could ask for, I cannot imagine why there are any restrictions on trade between the two nations at all. Some commodities and products can be more efficiently produced by Canucks than by Yanks. There are plenty of products that can be more efficiently produced in the US than in Canada, so ours is quite a symbiotic relationship.

Every time a tariff on Canadian-US goods causes me pain at the cash register, my blood boils just a little bit.

November 30, 2021
US Doubles Tariffs on Canadian Softwood Lumber and Contractors Expect Higher Prices

https://www.enr.com/articles/53119-us-doubles-tariffs-on-can…

August 30, 2018
U.S. Commerce Department reduces tariff on Canadian paper used by newspapers

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2018/08/us_commerce_depart…

WASHINGTON – The U.S. Commerce Department on Thursday said it would make permanent, but also reduce, tariffs on Canadian paper used by the newspaper and publishing industry. The tariffs, which had been as high as 22.16 percent, will be capped at 16.88 percent, the Commerce Department said.

Because he was making a trip to Office Depot for supplies today, a friend of mine offered to pick up a ream of 8.5"x11" copier paper for me - the only thing I needed at the time.

In order to decide which brand to buy, he texted me photos of the three cheapest options, as follows:

Office Depot White Multipurpose Paper, 500 sheets of 20 lb. weight = $14.99

HP Papers Bright White, 500 sheets of 24 lb. weight = $24.99

Hammermill Copy Plus, 500 sheets of 24 lb. weight = $16.99

This is totally ridiculous. Paper is a 100% recyclable and eternally renewable product made from a green-growing commodity that REMOVES CO2 from the atmosphere while it is being replenished. Pulpwood for paper literally grows on trees.

To add insult to injury, I am purchasing this 100% recyclable product using the global reserve currency US Dollar trading at a premium of 28% over the Canadian Dollar ($1 USD = $1.28 CAD).

If Globalism is such a bad thing, then why am I fire-spitting mad at the fact that I have to pay more than 3 times what I had to pay for a cheap ream of copy paper than I did 2 or 3 years ago?

</end of rant>

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U.S. Commerce Department reduces tariff on Canadian paper used by newspapers

People still read newspapers? }};-@

I bought 1500 sheets of printer paper at Costco some 5 years ago, still have about 3/4ths of it.

Tim <grew up in a pulp & paper town long ago, left the day before I turned 17 heading for Toronto to join the army>

https://www.marathon.ca/en/town-hall/covid-19.aspx