AI
The USA will have to utilize AI in manufacturing.
There just won’t be many wrench turning jobs.
Will the USA have to look at Universal Basic Income for the underclass?
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UBI seems problematic because one’s livelihood is dependent on the wisdom and fairness of legislators. People also prefer some opportunity and autonomy in making a living.
Taming income inequality with higher taxation on the most wealthy is the best course.
Then, there would be money for the government to support research and development, maintenance of infrastructure, and social services, all things necessary for a civil and productive society..
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I can see AI designing more efficiently. That reduces manpower in the design and engineering phase. Maybe using fewer parts or more complex better designed parts.
Fewer parts means fewer jobs. But the real impact is likely to be more versatile robots that can do more complex jobs with less human intervention.
We already have factories run by a small number of humans. Can robots load and unload trucks? Pick and pack orders? Spot mistakes and fix them before shipping? Deal with an empty parts bin or a damaged part?
Maybe fewer humans will be needed but robots that can replace all those functions will take a while.
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Numerous companies are doing this
Sure, you still need some human supervision to handle various edge cases
Mike
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The problems with automation are:
-large initial capex
-need highly trained maintenance
-if your business slacks off, you still have the capex amortization expense.
The advantages of Proles:
-no capex: they show up at your door under their own steam
-maintenance paid for by Medicaid
-can be laid off on a moment’s notice.
Steve
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Thanks TJ and all who replied for excellent useful posts, links, and thoughts.
Almost like the old days of trying to figure out investment strategies based primarily on R&D developments, economic cycles, and “normal politics” that could mostly be ignored….
“I can see AI designing more efficiently.”
I agree, fewer workers will be needed, that has been going on for a long time, though.
I’ve watched some of the utube vids Steve links to on some of his posts. They show things like the engine having to be removed to replace a water pump, or stuff like that. Seems like that is a planned, conscious decision by manufacturers to increase future revenue streams by forcing customers into expensive repairs that 99% cannot do themselves. I hope the use of AI will correct that. But it could make it worse, AI could be used to make routine maintenance more complicated, and expensive.
I knew quite a few autoworkers. At times, their supervisor would shadow them on the line, recording how many steps, or motions were needed to perform a task on the assembly line. Henry Ford was famous for this. AI, old school style.
Always a focus on efficiency, at least from the engineers.
The bean counters might nullify all of those efforts, though.
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Can robots operate fork lift trucks? Or will fork lift trucks become robots?
Will shipping on pallets be replaced with some new technology?
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I wouldn’t say it’s a sinister conspiracy against shadetree mechanics. The manufacturers do what they do for reasons of their cost or convenience, and simply don’t care about the consequences for the customer.
The Ford V6 water pump you mention is one case. When Ford puts that engine in a rear drive car, like a Mustang, they put an external water pump on it. But, when they put that same engine in a transverse, front drive, installation, like an Explorer, they use the internal water pump. Clearly a packaging advantage for Ford. They don’t care about the out-of-warranty consequences for the customer.
Same thing with Subaru using RTV sealer, instead of gaskets, in their engines. A lot of manufacturers use sealer, instead of gaskets now. When the sealer dries out and starts to leak, it’s not a huge job to remove the oil pan, timing chain cover, and valve cover, and replace the dried sealer. But when a Sube starts to leak, because of the way their engines are designed, it’s a huge “engine out” job, with price tag running about $3,000. But it’s out of warranty by then, so Sube doesn’t care.
Even on conventional engines, any sort of service that requires the removal of the oil pan, timing chain cover, or valve cover, can get expensive, because some OEMs, like VW, make those parts out of plastic now. The parts need to be peeled off, because they are glued in place by the RTV sealer. When peeled off, they invariably bend, so they will never seal again, so replacement is required. But the OEM doesn’t care about the cost to the customer. The car is out of warranty by then, and they saved a few $$$ by using plastic, instead of cast aluminum.
Seems clear to me that cars are designed to be leased these days. The OEMs do not care about the ownership experience when the car is 8-10 years old.
Here is another teardown video of yet another Ford V6 with a failed, internal, water pump.
If I had not already been cynical, I would have learned cynicism from watching the decision process of “JCs”.
Steve
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I’m pretty sure they’ll try to kill them off sooner with health care cuts, like rolling back the Obamacare premium subsidies.
Wealthy conservatives have a long history of doing this going all the way back to when Frederick L. Hoffman advocated solving the race problem by withholding health care.
In his day, Hoffman was a popular as Joe Rogan and toured the country speaking to large, enthusiastic crowds.
intercst
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Remember when former Sec Education Bennett said that the way to reduce crime would be “abort all black babies”?
Steve
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Amazon has already deployed robots with “touch sensitive haptics” that can pick and choose dissimilar items scattered in a box.
This stuff is moving along much faster than people realize. Elon’s June FSD launch is just the tip of the iceberg.
intercst
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Yep, another “conservative thinker” who spoke to large, enthusiastic crowds.
intercst
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Time & Motion studies – it’s Management 101.
Time and motion study - Wikipedia.
Frederick Winslow Taylor was the management consultant who pioneered this around 1900.
But he probably didn’t do as much damage as the guy who invented Tetraethyllead.
intercst
Actually Super Freakonomics posited a simular theory. They looked into the data on abortions and found the the socio economic class that had the majority of the abortions was the same class that had most of the common crime. (Note more abortions at say i ivy league schools maybe would help with the outrageous crime, but I digress.)
If you simplified the data and the resulting conclusions, then the anti abortion Bennet would actually be saying the same thing but implying that the proabortionist are actually racist.
Cheers
Qazulight (Note most violent crime is committed by those under 26. So the aging population does have advantages)
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That section of the book has been debunked due to a number of methodological problems. For example, the crime rate actually fell faster in cohorts born pre-Roe. Also other countries where abortion was already legal saw similar drops in crime as the US.
A simpler explanation is that Bennett is a racist POS.
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I’ve been in a few Amazon FCs and it is surprising how few humans work in them. There is still a lot, but not nearly as many as you expect.
I seldom make predictions, but I’ll lay down a marker that Tesla’s robotaxi launch will be nothing we haven’t already seen.
The tech is still amazing, but I am highly skeptical we will see anything new.
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I don’t think it will be anything “new’”. Just releasing FSD from the “supervised” mode and allowing you to sleep in the back seat while cruising down the Interstate (as Elon promised in an interview a few days ago) will be a revolution. (last 20 seconds of video)
intercst
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What he seems to be talking about is Level 5 autonomous driving where your car can go anywhere without human intervention. I would rate that as something new that we haven’t seen before.
Tesla’s rollout next month (apparently) will be Level 4, where the car is restricted to a geofenced area. That is an amazing tech achievement, but Waymo already does this. This would be new for Tesla, but we’ve already seen it.
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I don’t believe we are there yet. I won’t EVER sleep in anything controlled by just a computer.