Why Toyota isn’t all-in on electric vehicl

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Why Toyota – the world’s largest automaker – isn’t all-in on electric vehicles

Toyota, the king of hybrid vehicles, has come under scrutiny by some environmentalist groups for its cautiousness on investing in fully electric vehicles.

The company doesn’t believe battery-electric vehicles are the only solution to producing more sustainable vehicles and achieving carbon neutrality.

Toyota has a goal to produce 3.5 million electric vehicles by 2030, which would be more than a third of its current sales, while rival automakers promise to exclusively offer such vehicles.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/why-toyota-the-worlds-larges…

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Toyota is on record saying they don’t think the grid in Japan is ready for EVs. Hybrids are a better choice for now. And they have invested heavily in that direction.

Some believe the US grid is also not ready for the additional demand.

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Some believe the US grid is also not ready for the additional demand.

Adding one EV per household that drives 15K miles per year will increase residential electric demand by about 30%. Since residential demand is about 20% of all usage that is about a net 6% increase.
Night time electrical demand is about 1/3rd lower than daytime peak so the grid can easily handle the extra load, especially if TOU incentives keep most charging at night.

The real issue is supply of lithium and other metals needed for increasing battery production.

Mike

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Exactly right Mike. Grid capacity is a red herring by those who don’t want to see the gas powered car go away.

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Grid capacity is a red herring by those who don’t want to see the gas powered car go away.

Not to worry*!*

Gas powered cars (and trucks) will be around long after everyone of us reading these words is long gone.

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for the next five years, Toyota is all in on Plug in Hybrids (25-30 miles EV range) and Hybrid vehicles. The latest Prius gets 55 mpg. Probably a LOT cheaper to operate than if you have to charge all the time somewhere else. Half the US population has no garage or carport.

That 7-11 is going to charge you 48c/KWH or 25 to 50 bucks to do another 200 miles.

a 55 mpg Prius only takes 4 gallons of gas and gas is under $3/gal here now. $12. Do the math.

Plus, if you own a hybrid car, you don’t have to rent one to go on a long trip somewhere. Your hybrid (or plug in hybrid) will take you on your thousand mile trip with no need for hour long recharges every 150-200 miles.

t

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It’s also worth noting, as was discussed in one of the other threads, that the Japanese government is strongly supporting hydrogen vehicles:

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights…

It’s not all that surprising that Toyota - a global manufacturer but still a Japanese firm - would respond to the incentives of its home government. Japanese industrial policy seems aimed towards making hydrogen happen, so Toyota sort of has to be in that pool as well.

Albaby

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Toyota is on record saying they don’t think the grid in Japan is ready for EVs. Hybrids are a better choice for now

This is an odd rationalization on their part, seeing that Toyota sells twice as many cars in the US as in Japan. And more in China than in Japan. And there are incentives in the US for all-electric vehicles, and disincentives in China for those which are not.

It sounds to me as though somebody in some ivory tower suite has a prejudice, or made a decision, and by gosh isn’t going to let reality get in the way. Odd since Toyota was so far out front with the hybrid, but it wouldn’t be the first time a market leader bet wrong: Kodak with digital cameras, IBM with PC software, Yahoo! with search and others.

It seems to me that the least likely charging time for EVs will be in the late afternoon/early evening. Mostly it will be overnight, with some daytime charging in company parking lots or similar, largely from 8AM to 3PM. And it’s not as though we’ll wake up Tuesday and find a bazillion EV’s that weren’t there Monday. The Grid will be built out over time, just as the internet backbone was, just as cable television was, just as, well, most everything is.

Toyota is running off the track at the second turn; maybe they can recoup by the time the race is run.

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Adding one EV per household that drives 15K miles per year will increase residential electric demand by about 30%. Since residential demand is about 20% of all usage that is about a net 6% increase.
Night time electrical demand is about 1/3rd lower than daytime peak so the grid can easily handle the extra load, especially if TOU incentives keep most charging at night.

And we won’t be at one EV per household penetration for a couple decades. That’s a long time to make small, incremental changes.

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That 7-11 is going to charge you 48c/KWH or 25 to 50 bucks to do another 200 miles.

a 55 mpg Prius only takes 4 gallons of gas and gas is under $3/gal here now. $12. Do the math.

Try doing the math on what the average driver drives. A 25 mpg car.
Or with the electrical rate most people pay at home, which is where most people will charge most of the time. Or those who have solar panels. This will show a wider spectrum of refueling costs.

It is easy to cherry pick an example that is outside the averages.
Until there is real competition in DC fast charging there will be some high prices, IMO. But the common case is for EV owners to do most charging at home.

Mike (has a 2012 Prius plug in and a Model 3)

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“Try doing the math on what the average driver drives. A 25 mpg car”

OK…if you don’t have a garage or carport or place to charge at home - 40% of American car owners…

then 200 miles at 25 mpg is 8 gallons - or now about $24 in Texas currently

for 200 miles EV at the local fast charge place, or on a trip, typically a 35KW or 50 KWH battery will take 30-50 KWH at 48c/KWH. (probably more in CA as electricity there is over 25c/KWH for even home use and peak power during the day is like 50c/KWH)…so it will be

30 KWH at 48c, or about $15 to $25…and maybe even more in CA during the day while you are on a trip. If you got a bigger car, maybe 50 KWH or 60 KWH, or a Hummer at 90 KWH.

No big savings with an EV …IF you can’t charge at home!

t.

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Telegraph,that

I agree that’s how it is now. With new car prices where they are I would expect that most people who would consider a new electric car probably have a place that they can charge at home.

I expect that as electric cars become more widely used gas stations will add chargers and eventually recharge prices will become competitive.

I think that most apartment dwellers will only consider electric once a good selection of used cars is available. By that time there will be gas stations offering charging and some apartment complexes offering charge facilities.

Macroman77

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In Portugal I’ve seen chargers in gas stations.

The Captain

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The problem with pay-for-charging is how diverse the pricing is from place to place. This is nothing like gasoline where prices are roughly consistent.

A friend in Austin with a Mustang Mach-E (which he loves) pays Austin Energy $4.11 per month for all-you-can-eat Level 2 charging in a bunch of places around town. FOUR BUCKS PER MONTH to keep the “gas tank” full. Plus his home charging.

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More info. He paid for CD fast charging once, 40KWh for $7.86. Would get him 125 miles. Equivalent to 5 gallons of gas in our scenario above, or about $20 in gasoline. So less than half the price of gas.

I’m not sure why so many people don’t think you can save on fuel costs with an EV. Makes me think the people who have these views don’t know people with EV’s to actually find out.

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30 KWH at 48c, or about $15 to $25…and maybe even more in CA during the day while you are on a trip. If you got a bigger car, maybe 50 KWH or 60 KWH, or a Hummer at 90 KWH.

Th…th…there you go again.

You can’t compare TX gas prices to CA electricity prices. Be consistent.
You can’t add in a “what if” on a Hummer EV if you aren’t comparing to a Hummer ICE.
You can’t limit the comparison to the worst case price that might be used for only 10 or 20% of the miles.

Just because 40% don’t have a garage/carport…try comparing for the bigger population of 60% that can charge at home – they will be the early adopters and, over time, some apartment owners will install chargers. Apartments near me installed them 3 years ago. Some people will charge at work most of the time, for free or for a reasonable price…thousands of chargers at Apple, Google, FB and other tech companies in CA.

Mike

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You can’t compare TX gas prices to CA electricity prices. Be consistent.

It’s not really fair to criticize telegraph for comparing Texas [whatever] to California [whatever], and then…

…hold up California’s acceptance of EV’s as some kind of model that’s going to be replicated across the rest of the country.

California has a lovely Mediterranean climate, the kind where EV batteries work best. Where don’t they? Where is really hot (the South & Southwest) or really cold (Northeast, North Midwest.) It’s also home to high tech, so even apartment dwellers have a reasonable shot of being able to recharge at work, something that has yet to penetrate the rest of the country in any meaningful way. And California has been offering additional state incentives which is unlike much of the rest of the country.

Just because 40% don’t have a garage/carport…try comparing for the bigger population of 60% that can charge at home – they will be the early adopters and, over time, some apartment owners will install chargers. Apartments near me installed them 3 years ago. Some people will charge at work most of the time, for free or for a reasonable price…thousands of chargers at Apple, Google, FB and other tech companies in CA.

Someday maybe the Caterpillar factory in Texas and the PPG plant in Pittsburgh will have them too, but it might be a while. Here’s a fun statistic: In California only 13% of EV owners live in apartments, so single-family homeowners are over-represented by triple compared to the population. Even in California! Where many of them - as you point out - have access to charging at work.

As for apartments and condos I can only speak from my own experience. I had assigned parking at my Boston Condo (I owned the space.) But it get to it I would have to trench across 3 other spaces, so (even if I could get permission from the board) the installation cost would be humongous. And my sister lives in an apartment complex (in Philadelphia) where parking is not assigned, so having an EV charger two buildings over wouldn’t be much of a help either. Eventually I presume chargers would become more ubiquitous, but it’s not the kind of place where the management is big on unneeded amenities.

Again (and again) I am not saying the transition won’t happen; I’m saying it is going to be a slower process than many are predicting - even as it happens quickly in some other, better “media covered” territories. I’m standing by my SWAG prediction of 50% penetration ever (reasonable lifetime) even in states like California which have “banned” ICE vehicles at some point in the future. I suspect they will find a lot of carve-outs and exceptions for those for whom EVs simply don’t work.

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“A friend in Austin with a Mustang Mach-E (which he loves) pays Austin Energy $4.11 per month for all-you-can-eat Level 2 charging in a bunch of places around town. FOUR BUCKS PER MONTH to keep the “gas tank” full.”

Level 2 charging can take 6-8 hours to give you a charge if you are low. Hardly worth sitting somewhere for an hour or two or three if you find an open charger. You get maybe 15 miles a hour.

If you don’t have home charging, you’ll have to use fast charge (Level 3) so you can be done in 30-40 minutes.

t.

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You can’t compare TX gas prices to CA electricity prices. Be consistent.

It’s not really fair to criticize telegraph for comparing Texas [whatever] to California [whatever], and then…

Well then let’s just compare the fuel costs of powering a Hummer with CA gas prices and a Tesla with TX residential electricity prices.
At some point apples to apples has to apply.

No one is saying that everyone can get an EV “today” and it makes sense for them all today. But they certainly make sense for lots of people AND are cheaper to fuel them today. Making ridiculous comparisons or cherry picking the one or two cases where they don’t in order to prove they make no sense for anyone is silly.

Mike

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No one is saying that everyone can get an EV “today” and it makes sense for them all today. But they certainly make sense for lots of people AND are cheaper to fuel them today. Making ridiculous comparisons or cherry picking the one or two cases where they don’t in order to prove they make no sense for anyone is silly.

Exactly. They (the collective automakers) can’t build enough EVs to replace all the vehicles in 1 year. Not even over 5 years. And not even over 10 years. So for the first few years, mostly SFH dwellers will buy them and charge mostly in the garage or driveway. And a few apartment dwellers will buy them and charge elsewhere. Very VERY few people charge their EVs exclusively at fast DC chargers. The only examples I am aware of are:

  1. Lucky Tesla owners that bought while Tesla included free supercharging for life.
  2. Active UberLyft drivers that drive [much] more than their cars range per day.
  3. Large trucks that cover long distances.
  4. People on an occasional long trip away from home.
    Most everyone else charges using level 2 chargers. Even Amazon/UPS/Fedex/etc delivery trucks will likely use level 2 chargers for most fo their charging, they plug it in in the evening at the end of their shift, probably in the parking lot where they leave it overnight. The in the morning, they pick it up, bring it to the loading dock, the days packages are loaded, and they start driving around to deliver them. Amazon logistics is terrific at planning the most efficient routes, and they will surely take into account the EV aspects of the vehicle.

And then as the years pass, maybe in 5, or in 10, or in 15 years, there will also be reasonable solutions for apartment dwellers. Maybe some of them will be willing to not own their own, and will subscribe to some sort of rideshare system? Like people in NYC who, already today, choose to not own cars, and instead use UberLyft/Taxi/subway instead.

But it all doesn’t matter, because the pace that EVs can be built is still substantially limited, so NO MATTER WHAT, it’ll take 10 to 20 years to replace “all” (not really all, but a very large majority) the ICE cars out there.

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