Will Student Loans Be the Recession Trigger?

Hard to get good data, but repayments start up in August. 45 million people with and average of $200+ per month in payments (that’s the best data I can find and frankly, I don’t trust it a whit). Whatever, billions of dollars will be sucked out of consumer expenditures to resume debt repayment.

Also let’s say, pre-pandemic, I could afford $1000/month in mortgage payments, but with school loan repayments paused, I have an extra $200+ and can afford to pay 20% more for a house (at 3%). But oohhh, now I’m not going to have that extra $200+ a month. Can I still afford my mortgage? I am not going to re-fi at 6% am I?..assuming I have any equity yet?

Just idly wondering.



Average Student Loan Debt Statistics:

The Federal Reserve reports that the median student debt for all borrowers in 2021 was between $20,000 and $24,999

Yes this some economic stress. But look at it this way most of those younger folks are now paid more. Many states the income ladder has shifted upward. People have new jobs, promotions, better pay and often their own businesses now.

The bigger issue is rising borrowing costs and tougher lending standards. We are already seeing a slowdown.