As for guidance always being low, I noticed companies will always guide the year very low and raise it up as time goes on, but the next quarter, you can typically take what they come in at vs. what they predicted and get a guideline on how much over guidance they typically come in at to get a “real” estimate what they will do the next quarter.
As for organic vs. inorganic, this is what I was able to find looking at their earnings transcript. I am not really interested in this company so am not really going to try and find more numbers.
Q3: revenue up 53% YOY, 10% sequentially. Organic growth up 41% YOY.
Q4: revenue up 53% YOY, 13% sequentially. organic revenue up 12% sequentially. I can’t find yoy organic growth. Nor have I looked into when the acquisitions lapse.
They had the following to say in their Q4 earnings call:
Our full-year guidance implies 37% revenue growth and an adjusted operating income margin of 43% at the midpoint of the range.
or Q1, we expect GAAP revenue in the range of $144 million to $146 million and adjusted operating income in the range of $61 million to $63 million.
I show they did $102m in Q1 last year. So as you can see, they are guiding for 42% growth next quarter but 37% for the full year. This is very common to forecast lower growth for the full FY but the next quarter forecast higher growth. So based on your history you show, they may come in at high 40’s for Q1 growth.
In Q2 they had the following to say:
While every company during this pandemic grappled with how to prioritize investments, efficiently finding their next customer is at or near the top of the list forever executives. In the quarter, our team delivered 40% organic… GAAP revenue in Q2 was $111 million, up 62% year-over-year.
In Q2 they said:
We expect GAAP revenue in Q3 to be $116 million to $118 million and adjusted operating income between $53 million and $55 million. This implies 34% organic revenue growth and 46% margin at the midpoint of the range. The non-GAAP net income is expected to be $0.08 to $0.09 per share.
For the full year 2020, GAAP revenue is expected to be between $451 million and $455 million. And adjusted operating income between $213 million and $217 million. This guidance implies 35% organic growth and a 47% margin at the midpoint of the range.
Here’s what really happened:
In Q3, our team has delivered 41% organic growth over the last year, up 40% from last quarter.
Also: GAAP revenue in Q3 was $123 million, up 56% year-over-year.
So they were $6m higher than they guided.
We expect to generate GAAP revenue in Q4 between $129 million and $131 million and adjusted operating income between $58 million and $60 million. This guidance implies 43% annual revenue growth or 35% growth relative to the previously reported allocated combined receipts figure for Q4 2019; and a 45% adjusted operating margin at the midpoint of the range.
Then what really happened: In Q4, we delivered GAAP revenue of $140 million, up 53% year over year and sequential-quarter growth of 13%
You can see they will continue to raise the Annual Guidance every quarter and overshoot each quarter by, in this case, they came in at 5% more revenue they guided for in Q3, and 7.7% more revenue they guided for in Q4. So taking this, that’s roughly 6-7% higher revenue PER QUARTER for the next quarter than they predict, and of course they will raise the guidance for the year each quarter.
So I expect them to be somewhere around 55% growth next quarter, given their history of beating estimates. Also, they’re going to raise the annual revenue forecast every quarter. In other words, don’t worry about trying to calculate growth off their annual forecast they are giving, because it’s going to change throughout the year.
As for how much organic vs. inorganic, I’m not sure.