I have a history of getting too enthusiastic about AMD and buying near its highs, or getting despondent and selling near its Lows
I’m trying to break that pattern this time. I’ve lost patience and my gut tells me to sell, but I’m afraid that may be a buy signal in disguise.
What are people thinking right now?
I do not think there is any fundamental news that says it’s a bad time to hold. My selll trigger on AMD has not changed for like eight years: Intel actually shipping parts that at least match AMD’s best. In those eight years I have seen Intel claim to be shipping those parts real soon now but steadily failing. If Intel or somebody else is selling parts that match AMD’s on the same process in Servers, Workstations, Desktops, or Laptops, preferably all four, that would be a sell sign. You follow AMD more closely than I do these days, so you likely know the hardware market better than I do. Yes, we see in some niches AMD being matched, but I think AMD is hitting their sweet spot very effectively, and even in Intel’s price war steals some low margin sales from AMD, it just means AMD will make more high margin products, I think Deepseek will run on AMD hardware. AMD has not fallen horribly behind NV in GPU, as they had many years ago. I see lots of ugly possibilities but they are more macro related, and in a major downturn of the economy, the best survive. Right now in CPU I think AMD is best, and in GPU second best,
Just FYI AMD did run a press release confirming that Deepseek runs fine on AMD HW.
A lot to think about. Want to make a number of money moves soon, this is one stock I’m looking at adding, have to talk to a friend who’s had a good run with technical analysis on other stocks about the right entry point for AMD.
I was waiting for the results to sell some AMD, reasoning was that at 23.5% of my total portfolio, it was becoming an emotional millstone round my neck, sold 35% of AMD and invested elsewhere. Still like AMD though, it’s forward PE of 24 is better than NVDA at 42 (according to Bloomberg).
Nvida is scheduled to report earnings Feb 26. The numbers are expected to be good. Shares have been trending upward recovering from recent lows.
For a growth stock i prefer to calc forward PE based on 4x last reported qtrs earnings. The ePE is closer to 30.
Yes, that would probably be a more accurate estimate. However has DeepSense changed the game? We’ll know soon enough.
No doubt major investors are reviewing the potential for Deepseek technology go get the job done for less. So far they have not announced revisions in their capital investment plans. As you say we shall see what happens.
Meanwhile others say Deepseek makes AI participation affordable for many more players rather than only for those with very deep pockets. It increases competitive pressure to find the best most profitable applications first.
It would be disaster for an industry leader to be left in the dust–selling buggy whips.
I feel pretty comfortable that many of the LLMs/chatbots out there will implement optimizations used in DeepSeek fairly soon to the extent that they can.
And I feel pretty sure that it will be feasible to run LLMs that take techniques from DeepSeek on any HW and see performance/cost improvements.
No one will be stranded, but more solutions that might have seemed less economically viable will become “adequate” for more use cases. Should grow the market.