WSJ singing the blues today

The Wall Street Journal is usually bullish. Today… not so much.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-nasdaq-sp500-03-11-2025?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1

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Stock Market Today: Trade Threats Send Dow Down 500 Points

U.S. dollar weakens further; airline stocks in focus after outlook cuts

Last Updated: March 11, 2025


Fears about a recession sparked a selloff Monday, with sliding tech shares spurring the Nasdaq Composite’s biggest loss since 2022. President Trump declined to rule out a recession on Sunday and said his economic shake-up would result in a “period of transition.”

“It was a really emotionally charged decline,” said Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies. But she added that “this is more than just a brief pullback that we’re going through.”…

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trump-team-recession-hard-landing-c8f23d5d?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_3

Wall Street Fears Trump Will Wreck the Soft Landing

The economy’s pilot has a new message: Fasten your seat belts

By Nick Timiraos, March 10, 2025

… President Trump and his senior advisers in recent days have signaled indifference to rising risks that trade uncertainty chills private-sector investment. They have argued a “detox” might be needed in spending and hiring, that falling stock values aren’t a big worry, and that inflation could rise in the short run…

https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/consumer-credit-debt-economy-impact-634eda8d?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_4

Consumers Keep Bailing Out the Economy. Now They Might Be Maxed Out.

Recession fears rekindle concerns that Americans are overstretched on debt

By Telis Demos, March 11, 2025


Yet investors suddenly have fresh concerns. For one, Americans’ inflation-adjusted debt burdens are starting to grow further beyond prepandemic levels on a per-household basis. As of the fourth quarter of 2024, the average household’s credit-card debt surpassed $10,000, adjusted for inflation, for the first time since 2009…

In a February survey of consumers by the Federal Reserve, respondents on average thought that they had 14.6% chance of not being able to make one of their minimum required debt payments over the next three months, which is the highest level since April 2020…[end quote]

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/recession-donald-trump-fox-news-economy-tariffs-markets-5e81f1d6?mod=hp_opin_pos_1

Will There Be a Trump Recession?

Economic signs are mixed, but his willy-nilly tariffs have markets worried.


By The Editorial Board, March 10, 2025

These WSJ articles cite many data points that together add up to a danger of a slowing economy, possibly recession. Goodbye, soft landing!

The stock market has been in a bubble for a long time. Is this the beginning of a 1999-2000 type burst? VIX is spiking and Bullish Percent is plunging. The 3-month and 2-year Treasury yields are falling faster than longer durations which implies near-term fear of recession. The Fear & Greed Index is in Extreme Fear.

Risk is very high of a stock market crash. However, the financial stress index is still low so there’s no current danger of a financial crisis.

Wendy

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This time it IS different

(from one of he links)
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trump-team-recession-hard-landing-c8f23d5d?st=Pm4J6f&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

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As I mentioned here a while back, I guess a month or so ago, I “smoothed out the edges” of my equity portfolio and am now roughly 35% stocks, 5% TIP’s (thanks Wendy :slight_smile: ) and the rest is waiting for blood to start flowing in the market. We’ll see.

Jeff

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Up until mid last week I was 10% Foreign Developed (EFA), 6% US Large Cap through the ETF CEFS, 45% high yield bond (closed end funds), the rest cash with 5% preferreds.
As of Monday I’m 6% US Large Cap through the ETF CEFS, 45% high yield bond (closed end funds), the rest cash with 5% preferreds. I’ll have none of this “it’ll bounce back eventually” while the Zipperhead in Chief is playing Zeus. The timing dashboard is solid red, about to go deep red ala '22, March '20, etc. I’m on the sidelines.

2 Likes