WTI above US$92 due supply/demand

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Dang, I got the impression from our experts on the board that this relic would be plunging to zero in the not too distant future? ;-@

Everything takes longer and costs more than you think. Words like “rocketed”, “surging” and “soars” become common on the business news!

Note: I don’t make the market, I just try to make money from reality. Some of the problem is exacerbated by producing companies trying to placate activist who want them to get out of fossil fuels?

Anymouse singing “We are falling into sin … Wheeeee”

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/oil-market-keeps-getting-stronge…

COMMODITIES 1h ago

Oil market keeps getting stronger as prices power through US$92

Alex Longley and Jack Wittels, Bloomberg News

Oil has rocketed to a fresh seven-year high near US$92 a barrel, and almost every indicator is pointing to the rally extending.

The market’s structure is trading at its strongest level in years, indicating scarce supply. Diesel – the fuel that helps power the global economy – is also surging as a cold snap hits the U.S and demand soars. Inventories at key storage hubs are waning, and vital price gauges indicate an expectation the tightness will persist.

…

“This market is extraordinarily tight,” said Gary Ross, a veteran oil consultant turned hedge fund manager at Black Gold Investors LLC. “We have low inventories, tight balances, great margins, geopolitical risk. This is a very bullish market.”

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Dang, I got the impression from our experts on the board that this relic would be plunging to zero in the not too distant future? ;-@

Yeah, I find it quite entertaining that some people think EV’s are going to take over ICE cars by 2025 and oil will no longer be needed, and oil investments are a horrible idea right now.
The rudeness of someone replying with laughing emojis at Wendy’s Exxon post was ridiculous.

Depending on which source you look at, there are between 1.1-1.4 billion ICE vehicle on roads worldwide today. Last year about 5 million EV’s were sold, and about 65 million ICE’s sold.
Yes, EV sales are increasing rapidly, but I think it will take more like decades for EV’s to supplant ICE’s.
I have nothing against EV’s, I looked at trading in my Tucson last year for something smaller.
An EV would be perfect for me how I drive and where I live, as long as I keep my “summer car” for longer trips
The AWD ICE Kona was $25,000 CDN. The equivalent EV Kona was $54,000 CDN.
That was simply to much extra for me to justify.

Cue the ridiculous responses…

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The drums of war will do it too. I have yet to see military equipment run by battery alone.

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drdrab
Cue the ridiculous responses…

Too much ‘truthiness’ (to borrow a Stephen Colbert word) in your accurate post to NOT expect the hovering hoards to descend on it.

Can’t disagree with any of your posits. I find them accurate.

The EV phenom is capturing the grey matter of lots of folks, including a few who actually know better.

There WILL be a role for EV’s:

  1. Folks who need a vehicle for 95% to 100% of running around locally, and can plug it in nightly at home. (For over the road travel, they will settle for renting an ICE vehicle.)
  2. Folks who OWN an ICE vehicle, and then can afford to have two vehicles, using the EV for running around locally.
  3. Fleet operators, where their drivers remain local, passenger capacity not an issue, load not an issue, vehicles plugged in over night, etc.

And any other endeavor where long range of continuous driving and/or with loads are not a limitation.

Obviously, there is a distinct need for these kinds of vehicles that have significantly reduced maintenance costs (if you overlook replacement of $20,000 batteries), but they are a long, long, LONG way from the wholesale replacement of workhorse ICE machines.

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tim443
Dang, I got the impression from our experts on the board that this relic would be plunging to zero in the not too distant future? ;-@

Immediately reminded me of the quote attributed to Mark Twain:

“The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.”

LOL

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There WILL be a role for EV’s:

There will be a market for five computers…
Thomas Watson Sr., IBM founder

640K is Enough For Anyone
Bill Gates, Microsoft founder

If god wanted us to fly he would have given us wings
Wright brothers’ uncle

The Captain

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Dang, I got the impression from our experts on the board that this relic would be plunging to zero in the not too distant future? ;-@

can someone pass the salt and pepper for my order of crow?

I am watching the price of oil in horror.

At the time counting EV out is neglecting your portfolios.

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at the ‘same’ time counting ev out is neglecting your ports.

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“If God wanted us to go naked, we’d be born that way.”

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Blame Apple!

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There will be a market for five computers…
Thomas Watson Sr., IBM founder

640K is Enough For Anyone
Bill Gates, Microsoft founder

If god wanted us to fly he would have given us wings
Wright brothers’ uncle

The Captain

Denny-
I know you’re heavily invested in the Tesla picture, and I sincerely hope that it turns out. Seriously.

For me, it’s just too much of a roll of the dice. Too many other opps out here to tempt me to “shoot the moon” with Elon.

Color me heavily with skeptical reticence that holds me back, I guess.

It COULD work out. Honestly. I just can’t buy into Elon’s mantra. With all the “buts” I wrote weeks back.

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Denny-
I know you’re heavily invested in the Tesla picture, and I sincerely hope that it turns out. Seriously.

Thank you very much!

For me, it’s just too much of a roll of the dice. Too many other opps out here to tempt me to “shoot the moon” with Elon.

I’ve often said that a portfolio has to fit the owner like a well tailored suit. Tesla fits me. It doesn’t fit you. That’s just fine! BTW, I was only mocking the predictions. We tend to get them truly wrong! I had the same feeling about Apple when the iPhone came out. I really missed out!

I have a long history investing in EVs starting in December 2010

October 31, 2010
Investing: Kandi Technologies, Corp. (KNDI)

https://softwaretimes.com/files/investing+kandi+technologi.h…

While Kandi didn’t work out I made very good money trading the stock and options from December 2010 through May 2015. IRR 43.2%. With Tesla’s IPO KNDI took off but soon fell back to earth. I hadn’t heard about Elon Musk until the day he put on a battery swapping show which was just smoke and mirrors. He turned me off but I did follow Tesla because their business model made sense to me.

A tipping point came in February 2014 with the first coast to coast crossing in an EV charging only at Tesla’s SuperChargers.

February 3, 2014
Tesla’s Tipping Point

From Sticking Point To Tipping Point

Complexity is the enemy of adoption. Anything that is too complicated just won’t happen. For battery powered electric cars two of the barriers to adoption have been range anxiety and the time it takes to recharge the batteries. There are thousands of gas stations for conventional automobiles and fueling up only takes a few minutes. There is no equivalent infrastructure for battery powered electric cars.

https://softwaretimes.com/files/teslas+tipping+point.html

I think it’s worth your while to read this article.

Fast forward to September 2020, to Tesla’s Battery Day where they announced the 4680 battery cell. By 2020 I had stopped posting at Software Times. After watching the presentation and the efforts of incumbents to enter the market I figured that EVs had crossed the chasm and that it was now safe to invest in Tesla. I started with a modest position, added a couple of times, took profits when it shot up, bought back in after it dropped and then added some more.

I’m not going to argue that the valuation makes sense because I don’t think we have the tools to calculate the value of fast growers. DCF makes sense to evaluate bonds but not stocks and much less growth stocks. I rely on the concepts of The Gorilla Game and the sigmoid or “S” growth curve. 87% y/y increase in vehicles sold, huge gross margin, and hefty free cash flow are indications enough for me. But there is more, Tesla’s Agile management system, the success of SpaceX [initially I thought that Jeff Bezos would win the race]. To top it off, Herbert Diess, the VW chief, invited Musk to give VW managers a pep talk about how to make EVs! Unheard of!

Besides EVs, the bigger transformation that I see is the paradigm shift from utility centric to a distributed power grid with every rooftop harvesting sunlight and local battery storage. The beauty of this paradigm is the shift away from central planning!

The Captain

PS: My TSLA heavy port fell a lot less than Saul’s port this January!

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The AWD ICE Kona was $25,000 CDN. The equivalent EV Kona was $54,000 CDN.

That’s a ridiculous price difference! Maybe demand for the EV version pushed prices up?

In the USA, the ICE Kona SEL starts at $22,950, and the EV Kona SEL starts at $34,000.

ICE SEL - https://www.hyundaiusa.com/us/en/vehicles/kona/sel
EV SEL - https://www.hyundaiusa.com/us/en/vehicles/kona-electric/sel

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