With mortgage rate touching 7%, housing stocks are selling down and $WY broke down the range, if the stock is not going to rebound there are not much support…
The above is just land valuation, in addition to that they have wood division, climate solutions, RE business, and license to harvest 13 m acres in Canada; All of that you get free; Dividend yield is 3.75%, so you get paid while you wait;
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$WY price action is classic. The stock is now in steady decline, not sure where the bottom is, I expect around $17~$17.5 some support emerge. Patience is the name of the game here. We are in rate hike cycle, so the dividend yield stocks are going to get re-rated, and housing is going to be impacted by the high rates.
For now, I have some $20 puts, which I should have closed, but… bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
This is not a technical decline. Housing is getting hammered. Mortgage rates are now abov e 7% and likely to stay there for a while. Vast numbers of people are locked in to 3% and 4% mortgages.
Trump added tariffs on Canadian lumber that now put them north of 45%. This just adds anther layer of cost to new housing construction, not to mention reducing the number of immigrant workers in construction and inflation generally.
Weyerhaeuser is fighting trends it has no ability to overcome, and there’s no technical chart stuff that’s going to reverse this decline anytime soon.
This is going to help $WY. Why? Because $WY sold its mills in Canada last year. Yes, housing is bad. But, my thesis is really not technical… technical is to find the right price to enter the trade.
