This is exactly the point I was just making over at another thread here before reading your post Saul! I’ll paste it here (with new bolds) as it is probably more relevant to this thread:
https://discussion.fool.com/today-i-added-significantly-to-zm-cr…
Zoom is now my largest holding (I’ll skip the details as it isn’t relevant). It has been exceptionally rare for me to do anything around earnings reports in the past. This time is different for Zoom. I don’t believe Zoom has reported earnings that include peak pandemic growth numbers (now there is a phrase I never expected to be typing!). We are talking about AT LEAST a 3000% increase in daily active meeting participants. 10M to 300M is 30x or 3000%, right? This is the number we heard a month ago! I have to assume that the numbers kept growing (will we see 400M? More?). I have a very hard time believing “the market” has priced in numbers this wild. My guess is we haven’t heard new numbers because they have been security and quality focused and bragging about quantity would be a weird message to broadcast. This is just not something that happens very often! While this is highly anecdotal, I posted my thoughts on how meaningful consumer numbers are (I’m not convinced they matter nearly as much as corporate wins from here on out), and some more specific things I am looking forward to hearing on the call: https://discussion.fool.com/re-zoom-gt-quotwhat-if-only-110-of-t…
@Smorgasbord1:
“• She estimates Zoom’s paid user base at the end of Jan was about 4.25M. Combine that with a 7%-10% monetization of the users at the end of April implies about 7M daily active paid users.”
Was there a source? When I checked I couldn’t find the numbers. From results: “Zoom defines a customer as a separate and distinct buying entity, which can be a single paid host or an organization of any size (including a distinct unit of an organization) that has multiple paid hosts.”
This quarter will be very interesting but I’m not expecting it to answer all the questions. Perhaps it puts some of the individual-consumer-habit-based-results debate to rest, but I believe the enterprise cycle will take longer to play out as part of a return to office spaces (which may be partial a lot more often now). For example, my company switched to Zoom weeks ago but has not started integrating it in offices at all yet. We are moving away from an aging Lifesize system to Zoom. Some hardware can be used with Zoom while some can not. The physical meeting room upgrade effort has been pushed until we start using our offices again. I suspect this is happening all over the world at other companies. If a 1000-employee company can have a dozen meeting rooms, this could be significant. Zoom Rooms is $49/month/room, which is like 3 very sticky individual licenses.
What we have to do as individual investors, and I hope as a community, is start to model all the different channels of growth: consumer vs enterprise Zoom, Zoom Rooms, Zoom Phone, integrations that require licenses (are there any? I haven’t looked…if Zendesk is using Zoom, for example, it is probably expensive, hah), etc…? …and roughly, from left to right, those items get increasingly sticker.
Plus, May and June are part of the next Q and are probably more important than April. I’m sure a lot of people tried out other things at first before switching to Zoom. Or held off a wider more expensive rollout pending the new security in version 5.0, which came out a month ago but has only been required by users for a few days now (May 31st was the hard switch). I directly know of at least 1 company that did just this (both).
If the shares start falling tomorrow I’ll probably be catching some of them for the long term (after reviewing the results of course).