ZM reported fourth quarter, surging after hours

Zoom just reported they are surging after hours, at last check they closed at $409.66, and the bid is current $450.

The main results compared to consensus estimates are;

  • Revenue: $882.5 million vs. $811.04 million expected, versus $188.25 million year-over-year
  • Adjusted earnings per share: $1.22 vs. 79 cents expected, versus 15 cents year-over-year

Sales rose by 369% to $882.5 million, rising 331% to $811.04 million in the quarter, an increase of 367% top-line from Q3.

Customers with more than 10 employees surged 470% to 467,100, beating estimates of 442,600.

More here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zoom-reports-q4-earnings-resu…

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This is why you I never sell a market leader disrupting an entire industry. This is a buy and hold and add on corrections stock, much like AMZN, NFLX and AAPL have been for decades. It’s a must own core holding. Where else are you seeing growth like this. Look at the raised guidance as well.

Simply amazing. I’ll be in this name for a very very long time.

Revenue: $882.5 million vs. $811.04 million expected versus $188.25 million year-over-year

Adjusted earnings per share: $1.22 vs. 79 cents expected versus 15 cents year-over-year

Sales rose by 369% to $882.5 million, handily topping estimates for a rise of 331% to $811.04 million in the three months ended in January. This also unexpectedly accelerated from the 367% top-line growth Zoom posted in the third quarter. Customers with more than 10 employees surged 470% to 467,100, also topping estimates for a jump to nearly 442,600.

“The fourth quarter marked a strong finish to an unprecedented year for Zoom. In FY2021, we significantly scaled our business to provide critical communications and collaboration services to our customers and the global community in response to the pandemic,” Zoom CEO Eric Yuan said in a statement. “As we enter FY2022, we believe we are well positioned for strong growth with our innovative video communications platform, on which our customers can build, run, and grow their businesses; our globally recognized brand; and a team ever focused on delivering happiness to our customers.”

Zoom Video sees Q1 EPS 95c-97c, consensus 72c

Zoom Video sees FY22 EPS $3.59-$3.65, consensus $2.96

TMB

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The way I see it

QoQ QoQ QoQ QoQ
FY20 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
122 120% 145.8 114% 166.6 113% 188.3 174%
YoY 269% 455% 467% 469%

FY21 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
328.2 202% 663.5 117% 777.2 114% 882.5 110%

YoY 297%
FY22 Q1
975

The QoQ pre-COVID19 was around 13%-20%, and then bounced to remarkable 74% and 102% for two quarters due to COVID19.
It then slowed down to 17% of Q3-21 followed by 14% of this Q4-21.
Assuming their guidance is sandbagged again, 905M+70M=975M. That gives QoQ of next quarter at 10%!

Don’t get me wrong. Zoom is a superb company with great performance, especially the astonishing RPO. I just think that it starts to approach the plateau of the sigmoid curve, and can’t see they keep growing over 50% a year from hereafter. I might very likely be wrong given their Zoom phone business, but can always come back when they prove themselves once again. For now I am happy with their 10% jump after-market and prepare to sell out my remaining 3% position.

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This is why you I never sell a market leader disrupting an entire industry. This is a buy and hold and add on corrections stock, much like AMZN, NFLX and AAPL have been for decades. It’s a must own core holding. Where else are you seeing growth like this. Look at the raised guidance as well.

And 24 hours later it closed almost 10% lower than it did prior to the earnings announcement-induced run-up.

Who knew we’d get such an opportunity to add on a correction so quickly :slight_smile:

For the most part, this ZM has basically gone sideways since September 4th. Sure, there have been spikes, all the way up to $568ish or so. But it’s always come back down to just about where it is now.

I’m not convinced ZM is anything like AMZN, AAPL, or NFLX, all of which I have or do own and have followed for over a decade. The fundamental difference between ZM and those three is their target audience. AMZN, AAPL, and NFLX are basically targeting the entire world population of connected people. ZM is really targeting businesses and organizations. There are way more individuals than organizations, which means ZM has a much smaller paying TAM in comparison.

This isn’t to say that ZM isn’t a good investment, just that the comparison isn’t valid IMO. I will likely hold AMZN, AAPL, and NFLX much longer than ZM because of their TAMs vs. ZM’s.

Paul

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