For long time reader on this board, I think it’s understood that we should never fall in love with a stock or a company. I know some people developed emotional attachment to companies after a long time of holding and never want to sell. for example: Apple, Amazon, Tesla. But do not equate company size with investment performance. Big number as result of compounding. Investment return is the % change in share price not because the market cap is big. Big market cap is the result not the cause of good investment return.
When the growth prospects changed, in ZM’s case, the stock priced in so much growth that future growth may not be the best and certainly there are better opportunities out there. For some of us, when we move out of ZM, it doesn’t mean we say: the CEO or company is bad. Sometimes bad things happen within the company. It’s not the case for ZM. In fact, ZM offers a great product to help many people to connect in one of the most difficult time in recent history. That is why it grew so much 2 quarters ago.(100% QoQ!)Many people agreed its growth is too ahead of itself. That’s why it’s share went down so much in the past 2 months.
We are not trying to find the next Amazon and ride it out 20 years to find out. We are trying to obtain the best possible return consistently in a predictable way. To do that, we concentrate in a couple stocks (5 to 10) and watch them closely and adapt according to conditions. The reward is these kind of investors obtain extraordinary annualized return. It’s not a one time trick. It’s a skill developed through experience, observations, and logical, independent thinking. This is why this board is special. There are lots of sensible people here. It’s not a yahoo board where people think subjectively and believe things what they want to be.It’s self deceiving.
For those of us finally decided to move on from ZM, we are not being hasty. We are quite slow actually, 2 months slower than the market. That’s okay. We are not timing the market. We are not bag holders. We don’t have to 100% accurate in when to get in and out of a stock. We just need to be correct about future return.
If stock price moved too fast in a short period of time, we have to look deeper.
Let’s ask a question, can Zoom becomes a trillions dollar company and how long does it take from now?
This calculation is estimate and not 100% correct so if there are any major mistakes in the math, please point it out.
It took aggressive Jeff Bezo’s AMAZON 21 years to reach 1 trillion in Sep, 2018 since IPO! How do I know it’s Sep, 2018? I just use the ratio of 1 trillion over current market cap 1.58 T and multiple the ratio to current stock price to get the price when it’s 1 trillion. Find that price on the chart, there’s how I obtained the date Sep, 2018. I also confirmed this date with article: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/04/amazon-hits-1-trillion-in-ma…
Amazon market cap: :
Dec, 1997: ~2.5 B (Stock price $5)
Sep, 2018: ~1 trillion. (Stock price $2000)
Stock price increase:400 times
Time frame: 21 years
1.?^21 = 400, to solve for ?, do reverse experiential: 400^(1/21) - 100% = 33% annualized return.
33% annualized return is decent return but not the best. Many concentrated portfolio here can generate 50% to 100% per year depending on new opportunities! And I do believe US will keep pumping out excellent new IPO every year. This is a reason I don’t invest in Mega caps with close to 1 trillion dollar cap!
You know how tough it is to reach 1 trillions for ZM in same time frame as Amazon?
ZM started market cap: ~20B.
Goal: Reach 1 trillion
Question: how long?
For ZM to reach $ 1 trillion means 50 times increase. ! Using amazon’s average growth rate of 33%, it’ll take ZM about 14 years! 1.33 ^ ? = 50. Solve for ?. I just use use a simple calculator. Using formula to solve for the ? exponent is more complicated so I just try different numbers for ? until I get close to 50. In this case, ? is 14 years.
The problem is ZM stock already went up 6 times in the first year.There are 13 years left. So remaining growth to reach 1 trillion is 50 times divided by 6 = 8.3 times increase for a duration of remaining 13 years. 1.?^13 = 8.3, solve for ?. 8.3 times increase over 12 years is 8.3^(1/12) -100% = 17.7% return per year for the next 13 years! See, if company grew too ahead, later growth will be slower! Remember, this is assuming ZM is as good as AMAZON and grow to 1 trillion in the same speed and same time frame. 17.7% per year return is horrible! Amazon is a monster. Jeff Bezo is brutal. Why do you think ZM can grow as fast as Amazon to reach 1 trillion in the same time without a diverse product offering? You know AMAZON sell everything now with a logo of A to Z to represent its business model vs ZM’s video and phone?
My conclusion it’s extremely hard for ZM to reach one trillion dollar in the same time frame as Amazon. ZM’s best case is to reach the status of Adobe and Salesforce and becomes a mid cap company IMHO. Therefore ZM’s future annualized increase in share price per year will be less than 17.7% for the next couple years. Those new investors buying ZM now will be sitting in dead money for a long time. This is how a look at investments with a big picture not speculating what will happen.