My first buy was around $20.
Continued to average down all the way to $1.4.
It is $4.5 and nicely profitable for me.
Few turn around points and macro tailwinds
** Interest rates are coming down, this helps high debt companies like APPS and gives breathing room*
** APPS revenue is directly linked to number of new devices sold. These have been stagnant for 2 years and backlog is building. Number of phone sales may pick up due to AI features and age of Phones*
** European Digital Market Act (DMA) may open up alternatives to “Apple Store and Android playstore” for other players like APPS.*
** Google verdict forcing it to open up its business benefits companies like APPS*
** Company has cleaned up its shop and increased RPD (revenue per device) and its other ad streams are showing promise.*
IF they survive and show a modest growth this will quickly go to $20+.
Upstart Holdings (UPST) reported strong Q4 2024 results with total revenue reaching $219 million, up 56% year-over-year and 35% quarter-over-quarter. The company originated 245,663 loans totaling $2.1 billion, representing a 68% YoY increase. The conversion rate improved significantly to 19.3% from 11.6% in Q4 2023.
Q4 GAAP net loss narrowed to ($2.8) million from ($42.4) million in Q4 2023, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $38.8 million. For full-year 2024, total revenue was $637 million, up 24% YoY, with 697,092 loans originated totaling $5.9 billion.
Looking ahead, Upstart provided strong guidance for 2025, projecting approximately $1 billion in revenue and expecting to reach GAAP net income breakeven. The company also announced an upcoming Upstart AI Day event scheduled for May 14, 2025, in New York City.
Quote:
Over the past five years, Berkshire is up an annualized 22.1%, against 17.9% for the index. And during the past 10 years, Berkshire has risen 13.7% annualized, one percentage point ahead of the S&P 500. And during the past 20 years, it’s Berkshire, 11.4% annually against 10.2% for the index."
…
Berkshire now is comfortably ahead of the index for the past three, five, 10, and 20 years."
Don’t you guys think this is utterly silly? Berkshire place in a portfolio is entirely dependent on one’s personal choice. On one hand we have(had) people who were telling 80 year old to put all his money in Berkshire and expose him to single stock and on the other hand we have this utterly silly comparison with SPY. Why?
Move on guys. Both of you are not going to change your views.
King, you are right. Of course none of us will change the other’s views. It’s just the usual game which went on on the old Berkshire board like this:
Divi posts a comparison of selected intervals in which Berkshires price (not: value!) performance lagged that of the S&P
Someone points out weaknesses in his comparisons, like I just did here, asked Divi this and that, e.g. why (or if) he holds Berkshire stock when he constantly repeats how much better it would have been to just buy the index
and got perfect silence from Divi.
It’s just a game of provocing he loves to play. And when finally he got nobody anymore to react to his provocations — he left.
But I love to play games - even Divi´s silly ones. So please let us play a little and have our fun. Little immature kids playing
Just for fun, compare the two since the first post in this thread, January '23. It is a wonderful example on how past performance doesn’t mean much about future performance. It looks as though valuations matter more than the 15 year trend.
Valuation is a bogus argument. All the market participants valuation is reflected in the price. It is a separate argument comparing the price is silly.
Yeah, it was really silly to point out that a big chunk of the S&P rise was through multiple expansion while BRK went up through earnings improvement. Year to date +20% of bogus silliness.
Think about that! At least learn from WEB, he correctly identified Apple trading at 15x is incorrect!! While the erstwhile Berkshire crowd was/ is too busy arguing CAPE, and PE without ever realizing the opportunity in front of them.
It is not only your argument is silly, even trying to talk to you guys is silly on my point. Why waste time.
I don’t recall having said anything about Apple, or any individual stock. The title of this thread refers to an entire index. Keep putting up strawmen and beating them, it will make you fell better as the index reverts to the mean.
That’s what you are doing. If the title is comparing the two on price, then why you bring valuation and multiples? And you cannot even follow the conversation and understand the point.
Because valuation and multiples can tell you something about where the two might compare on price in the future. Look up “Buffett, voting machine vs. weighing machine” and perhaps you’ll finally get it.
