I speculated early on and said this more recently, AI does not displace workers

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
1

AI is not displacing workers.

But Silicon Valley is displacing wallets.

:rofl:

2

I’m rating that as gobbledygook. We hope AI generates enough growth to soak up all those displaced white collar workers. Of course they will have to retrain for their new roles.

Meanwhile employers expect to see improved efficiencies from their investment in AI. Otherwise AI producers will fail to make their numbers.

The premise fails the logic test.

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3

The unemployment data, and job hugging is saying otherwise. Just to be clear, the white collar folks, who are above 50, once they lose job, they are finding it extremely difficult to find jobs again. A significant number of them take involuntary retirement. I wish, the economists, and data explicitly talk about that. But the available data shows clearly, it is taking more than 12 months, and those who could not find in 18 months take involuntary retirement.

On the other side, new college graduates unemployment are running at 18%…

If the economy is doing very well, blue color jobs are doing well, and unemployment at 4.3%, but those two cohorts are having unemployment rate that is complete outlier…
what gives?

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4

Either AI is replacing people in jobs (and cutting costs),

or

It is leading to significantly increased productivity (and increasing sales and profits),

or

A lot of people are spending a lot of money for no reason,

and

This will not go on for a long-ish time once they realize it.

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5

Goof

Door number 3

But a marketing firm I use is telling me chatgpt ad suggestions are being experimented with by Expedia and Instacart

6

That has been perennial since 1981.

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7

Reinvestment has dropped

8

The cycle

  1. fed lowers interest rate
  2. cheap capital
  3. startups and construction
  4. jobs
  5. productivity keeps inflation in check
  6. go to step 1

AI will disrupt and displace workers but will create newer roles like prompt engineer and synthetic data creator and sora video editor

9

The AI bubble is bursting.

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10

What work will be had when all of the humanoid robots take over?

I believe next year some ceo said.

Will there be a human to supervise each robot, like there is a human in each Tesla “robo”-taxi?

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  1. Humans will supervise humanoid robots
  2. Humanoid robots will build humanoid robot factories.
  3. Go to step 1
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12

If my mother had wheels, she’d be a bicyle.

13

You wouldn’t want to ride her though, would you?

DB2