It seems the presidential election COULD have a big macroeconomic effect in the EV competitive market space within the USA.
It is with a big if though. Detroit lobbyists will not idly stand by.
Large political contributions & auto union endorsements will lay siege to political platforms.
IF Chinese EV automakers are allowed to build factories within the USA big changes occur. How will the valuation of Tesla stock be impacted?
Will Tesla stockholders flee the investment due to potential upheaval?
Perhaps the US will take the China approach and require joint ventures with Detroit automakers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-19/trump-welcomes-china-to-build-cars-in-us-in-departure-from-biden
Former President Donald Trump has reiterated an openness for Chinese automakers to build cars in the US as a way to boost the economy, signaling a potentially different approach from a Biden administration that has sought to keep out vehicles with links to the country.
“Those plants are going to be built in the United States and our people are going to man those plants,” he said, adding that he would otherwise slap tariffs as high as 200% on each car to prevent them from entering the country.
An item on the “news” recently: several states have filed suit against the government policy favoring EVs. Ford Motor is on the government’s side, because Ford has sunk so much money into EVs, and they don’t want the law changed.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/automakers-back-key-parts-new-us-epa-vehicle-emissions-rules-2024-05-20/
More broadly, I suspect the markets have been pricing in “pro-growth” government policy over the next few years. But now the table has been kicked over and things are still settling out.
Steve
EV growth plans for the next 5 years are quite positive. Chinese and South Korean vendors are committed to investments to bring these products here.
Regardless of the competitive landscape, cultural bias favors a view that these companies will vertically integrate their offerings. This will not be a help to Ford, GM or Tesla unless there are JVs which are involved.
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Regardless of the politics of it, I question how easily it will be to overcome local NIMBY opposition.
Many communities wont let China buy or own any property. I have my doubts those same communities will be open to a Chinese factory.
I think it more likely that China builds in Mexico and foregoes any potential tax credits they might otherwise get by building in the US. Of course, the same administration that appears eager to have Chinese manufacturing is also in opposition to EV tax credits so there is likely less reason to build in the US under such.