2025 State U-Haul Trends

Mercy, Mercy Me, there are lots of things going on. Maybe, some are escaping the Inner City Blues? Maybe, some are moving to be closer to some Sexual Healing from a Distant Lover they met online? Maybe, people are moving because it’s Time to Get It Together and they need a better job?

So many reasons…

Personally, long, long ago we moved to the Portland, OR area for a job. When we looked at finding a place, we chose to live in Camas, WA because the schools in Portland were a mess. District boundaries were constantly changing, creating instability for families. Taxes had nothing to do with our decision. Red and blue didn’t have anything to do with our decision. I would suspect that’s the case for most responsible people.

3 Likes

While this is generally true, that people don’t move solely because of the politics around them, another thing that is clearly true is that people OFTEN move because of the effects that politics have had on where they live. I suspect that the vast majority of moves are due to jobs, careers, or businesses. And another big chunk perhaps due to weather, especially for retirees.

It’s funny because I have a direct example of that literally right now, TODAY. I have a second cousin (well, distant relative of some sort, I can never remember what a second cousin is versus a once removed or twice removed or whatever) that lived in NY their entire life, their spouse lived in NY for 95% of their life and their 3 kids were born in NY (NY City) and spent their entire childhood (so far) there. This person runs some sort of online business, I’m not entirely sure exactly what, but they are all tired of the results of NYC politics. They’re tired of so many things in NYC - the high taxes (there’s some sort of new tax, either proposed or enacted, that will affect their business somehow, I have no idea about the details as I heard this all secondhand), the high costs of travel (they added some sort of new toll for entering the city recently that rankles them and others, plus all sorts of tolls to get pretty much anywhere*), and since the kids are either in high school or close to it, they are also afraid of random street violence and public transport violence when their kids are alone traveling.

Anyway, the kids are staying with their grandparents in NY (they have school this week) and the parents just arrived late last night here to FL to find a neighborhood/house to move to. They’ve had it with NYC. But really they’ve mostly had it with what the results of NYC politics have created. It’s funny because they’re the kind of people that apparently love city living, and love the ready access to nearly everything in walking distance, etc. If they ask me for advice, I will definitely mention that EVERYTHING here requires a car ride - even just picking up a stick of butter at the store. And for the most part, the kids need to be driven all over the place, to school each morning, from school each afternoon, to every afterschool activity, to many of their friends (though some will be walking distance), etc.

But there are tradeoffs with each type of living situation - city versus suburb, high-tax versus low-tax (usually people refer to income tax here, not other taxes), north versus south, etc. The grass isn’t always greener even though from a distance it might look greener.

* The last time I lived in NYC, in the late 80s, I lived on Staten Island, and the only way to get off/on the island with a car was to pay a hefty toll on one of the 4 bridges. Oddly enough, the ferry was free, or close to free at $0.25. Even back then, when I was in graduate school, I was paying very high amounts of tolls each day I had to travel to/from work (in NJ) and to/from school (in NYC). Luckily I was reimbursed for most of them from my company, but had I paid for them myself, it would have been very annoying.

2 Likes

You may have read about the bru-ha-ha in the Loudoun County (Virginia) school district over gender policies. I don’t don’t if people moved over it specifically, but if an unhappy family happened to be looking for a larger house or was offered a job located elsewhere in the state it wouldn’t be surprising if school policies played a role.

[Virginia’s blue counties lost nearly 160,000 to net migration, while its solidly red ones gained more than 122,000.]

I have a niece who lived in Aurora, Colorado. They moved a year ago because of gang activity. Not ‘politics’, but let’s call it the social environment.

DB2

1 Like

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting that people never move because of politics, but it’s certainly not the main driver of interstate migration.

Was it real gang activity, or perceived gang activity? Just curious, where did she move to? Did she study violent crime rates and then choose the safest location?

2 Likes

It was real enough, with drive-by shootings and police responding.

They moved to what I would call an ex-urb, Parker, at the south edge of the Denver area.

DB2

I don’t know … when I think about things like drive-by shooting and gang activity, I think NYC, LA, Chicago, etc, NOT Aurora, Colorado! :open_mouth:

Parker is a safer suburb. So they moved from a conservative majority government in Aurora to an independent / purplish government in Parker?

All my moves since I retired in 1994 have been by U-Haul, except the last one in 2012. I’ve always made it a point not to buy anything heavier than one person can move, with the possible exception of a refrigerator.

The condo I purchased was only a half mile from my rental, traveling along quite residential streets. So I Beverly Hillbillyed the move and tied the mattress and furniture to the top of the Altima, completing the move over the course of a few weeks.

Albaby will point that I’m the exception among HNW individuals. {{ LOL }}

intercst

I stayed in a Motel 6 in Aurora CO for a night about 25 years ago when I was doing a lot of long road trips “Across the fruited plain”.

I was surprised that every pothole in town had about a half dozen small jackrabbits hiding in it. They were more numerous than squirrels in Connecticut.

intercst

Wow, I think I may have you beat on this one (with regards to frugality of some normally accepted expenditure)! All my moves have either been done myself with suitcases and perhaps a box or two, or … drumroll … paid for by a corporate relocation department as part of my employment deal. And each one “grossed up” so I didn’t end up with a tax penalty.

I did do one trip (not a move) with a U-haul after my sibling got married and we brought the new couple a bunch of stuff (mostly stuff from my grandparents home after they died, like a dining room table) from NY to FL.

Oh, I also never paid closing costs on a house that I bought, again because it was almost entirely covered by corporate relocation and I’ve only bought one house and never sold one yet. For some reason, I recall that I had to pay for the inspection, but they covered all the other costs of closing.

I’m pretty sure you already know that you are.

I don’t know … is “pothole” code for “drug selling corner” and is “jackrabbit” code for gangbanger selling drugs.

Sure. All my moves when I was working were paid by the employer with a tax gross-up, but that ended with my exit from the workforce.

The only closing costs I had on the condo without a mortgage was half the escrow fee and Fannie Mae charged me $100 to change the tumblers on the locks. I did the inspection and appraisal myself since there was no lender involved.

I agree that the fewer homes you buy over your lifetime the better.

intercst

Your contention that people are moving from red states to blue states for a better political climate carries a lot of assumptions. It’s very unlikely that you know how many people are actually moving from blue states to reds states. It’s impossible for you to know the motivation of millions of people who relocate just because you had a cousin who left a blue district for a red district due to politics. In fact, you don’t know where people are relocating to and from.
For example: 2025 Florida population increased by 178,674 from foreign countries and 22,517 from other states.

Are the majority of people relocating out of California moving to another country. Since 2019, over a million Americans have moved and taken up residence in Mexico. Mexico City has seen a huge influx of American ex-pats forcing up real estate and rental property prices. 20% of the population of San Miguel de Allende is foreigners.

From 2008 to 2016 California’s population increased by 2.2million. Obviously, people wanted neighbors who voted for Obama. In 2012, a home in the Bay Area was 3x the price a home in Dallas. So, it wasn’t affordability.
10% of the population in Texas was born in Mexico. Foreign-born residents account for 15% of the popultion of Texas. Texas has the largest number of undocumented workers as a percent of their workforce compared to all states.

What’s Going On

4 Likes

True enough. Feel free to drop any assumptions or make your own. The facts remain that people are moving out of blue states and counties while red states and counties are gaining more population.

There are political ramifications (the House of Representatives, the Electoral College) but they don’t change the data from U-Haul and the Census Bureau.

DB2

If a red person moves out of an area, that increases the blueness of the area moved from and increases the redness of the area moved to. Likewise for a blue person moving. The political impact depends on the profile of each area. If either starts out close to 50/50 then the moving could flip or solidify an area. If they start out strongly polarized, then it is unlikely to make any change.

I.e., this strikes me as someone doing just enough research to provide a splashy headline that doesn’t actually mean anything like what it suggests.

11 Likes

As I observed above, one is free to draw one’s own conclusions, but the data are what they are. Illinois, for example, had 22 electoral votes in 2000. In 2024 they were down to 19. Economically, last month we had the governor of New York begging wealthy people to move back to the New York.

DB2

1 Like

OK, but changes in electoral votes are due to overall population, not red and blue, including the relative growth of other states. Try comparing other states changes and overall changes and I’ll bet a different perspective comes out.

2 Likes