The economy likes it warmer

According to this ABC reporter, it’s the climate.

An examination of key economic measures – including job and income growth – found an overwhelming majority of red states among 18 top performers.

The disparity between red and blue states has little to do with anything Biden has done, experts interviewed by ABC News said, noting that federal policy typically holds minimal influence over state-by-state economic trends.

Instead, they added, the dynamic owes in large part to the appeal of warm weather states for workers and businesses, as well as the combination of company-friendly state policies and Democrat-leaning cities that attract young, educated workers.

DB2

4 Likes

We know what sort of environment the “JCs” like. Workers go where the “jobs” are. If an influx of workers from other states causes local policies to shift, the state capital brings the hammer, as we are seeing in Florida, one of the states with the highest GDP growth.

Steve

1 Like

Usually, yes. But, if there are reasons for the workers to go elsewhere for comparable jobs, that puts the workers in control. We are seeing it now. Many young people are saying “no” to red state jobs and going elsewhere. Lots of medical professionals are doing the same–especially ob/gyn. For a young couple considering a family, these are ESSENTIAL ISSUES the red states are ignoring. So the younger workers will “go elsewhere”. Called that one long ago. This is ALL economics–for the young workers.

1 Like

Sunbelt has had an advantage long before Biden and global warming. Right to work laws and air conditioning are often cited as reasons.

Cold winters are inconvenient, drive up fossil fuel prices, and cost due to delays and the need to remove snow and ice.

South can be hot and humid. And they have hurricanes. Some think its worth it.

1 Like

But in aggregate people are moving to the red states and leaving blue ones.

DB2

6 Likes

Yup. You go where the jobs are. I moved from Kalamazoo to metro Detroit, because that is where the better opportunity was. The last place I worked is an Allied Van Lines agent. The honchos commented on the number of vans that dead-head back to metro Detroit, because of the net outflow, and metro Detroit is the fastest growing area of the state.

A list of the 8 fastest growing cities in the state. All but Grand Rapids and Kentwood, itself a burb of GR, are in metro Detroit.

1 Like

What I find remarkable is how much more expensive housing had to get in the blue states to finally get people to settle for the red states.

For example, the median house price in CA is about $800K vs $400 for TX. That’s pretty much what it takes to get people to choose TX over CA.

The free market in action, higher demand leads to higher prices.

5 Likes

Well, yes, people definitely migrate to where the jobs are. But there’s a new phenomenon at work here as well. People are migrating WITH their existing jobs. That one is more of a pure choice than the ones searching for a new and/or better job (which is also a choice, but with more constraints).

2 Likes

ABC linked story

Snippet

The disparity between red and blue states has little to do with anything Biden has done, experts interviewed by ABC News said, noting that federal policy typically holds minimal influence over state-by-state economic trends.

Instead, they added, the dynamic owes in large part to the appeal of warm weather states for workers and businesses, as well as the combination of company-friendly state policies and Democrat-leaning cities that attract young, educated workers.

How to unpack how vacuous these statements are? Biden funded the building of factories in red states. ABC does not know sh$t. Dumb network? Must be.

The report is based on percentages. Yeah…you guessed it…nominally the blue states are growing more in all likelihood. The red states have so much catching up to do.

“Aggregate”…like the claim that 400 corporations have left California? Lions tigers and bears! Oh my! Until it is pointed out there are 4 million corporations in California. That is not a lot of plumbers who left CA. LOL

Why are so many Americans not happy with the economy? Listening to ABC you would be clueless.

To answer that…

Millennials and Z’s have steep bills to pay. Major ticket items are not being funded nearly enough by the government.

Yes the Millennials and Z’s are making more take home pay than ever.

Boomer here who went to UCONN. State of CT paid 4 parts out of 5 for my college education. My parents and I paid the 1 part of the cost.

Millennials and Z’s pay 4 parts out of 5 now. That is common in most states.

Boomers idiotically think the kids want a free ride. The dumbie boomers were the ones who got the free ride.

The public is not stupid. ABC underestimates you watching that report. ABC thinks they can skunk the public. Were you that easily skunked by a propaganda piece?

3 Likes

You have to look at both sides of the economic equation, not just cost but also income. An acquaintance in Silicon Valley built a super home in one of the most expensive locations because he could afford it. An ex Apple employee, he acquired the rights to a software package Apple discontinued, relabeled it, and licensed it to Microsoft.

When Microsoft discontinued the software, the fellow sold the house, bought one for half the price in Arizona, and retired to play golf with his son.

And I lost a prospective client for our software! :frowning:

The Captain

1 Like

As does less supply, which is the California problem.

Simply put, we haven’t been building enough to meet the demand, even though the state’s once-robust population growth has slowed to a near-standstill… High housing costs are the major reason California has the nation’s highest rate of functional poverty and the second lowest rate of home ownership, just ahead of New York…

The PPIC report cites a 2015 study by the Legislative Analyst’s Office that delved into the underlying reasons for the housing crisis. The LAO said that to avoid extreme cost increases, the state should have been building at last 70,000 more units a year, and perhaps as many as 110,000, from 1980 to 2010. It estimates the shortfall over that 30-year period at about 3.5 million units.

DB2
And the beat goes on…

1 Like

So why not just live in Arizona from the beginning and save a ton in housing costs? Because the big money opportunities were in California, not Arizona. Advantage blue state.

Consider gold and silver. The price of each fluctuates relative to the other, but for most people gold has usually been more valuable than silver. When gold jewelry gets too expensive, people will consider the silver alternative. Point is that if the two were priced the same, more people would choose gold over silver. If CA and TX housing were priced the same, which do you think would be the more popular choice?

Blue states = gold. Red states = silver.

I would also suggest you look more granular by looking at the county rather than state level. I think you will find that emigrants from blue states are not moving into the vast number of rural conservative counties. They are moving to counties with cities and college towns that trend blue, places like Austin and San Antonio.

Economic development remains shaded blue and has been for a long time.

3 Likes

But now abortion laws may reverse the trend favoring blue states in the north.

1 Like

GDP Growth
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/economy/growth/gdp-growth
This metric measures the three-year compound annual growth rate of real gross domestic product by state, which has been adjusted for inflation…

The top five:
Idaho
Utah
Tennessee
Florida
Arizona

The top five for job growth rate:
Utah
Idaho
Arizona
Montana
Florida

DB2

1 Like

A Spanish proverb explains it best,

“Dios los crea y ellos se juntan.”

God creates them and they get together.

Why Chinatown? Why not go back to China? Why not disperse among the natives? Why do money changers congregate at Wall Street?

When I was getting ready to take Silicon Valley by storm I created a database of all the companies that interested me. Then I sorted by ZIP code and by telephone area code. They told me to go to the Land of Milk and Honey, a.k.a. Silicon Valley. Some oddballs were in Washington State, Texas, and Boston on Route 128.

The Captain

3 Likes

A while back, I looked at the bios of some tech innovators. They came from all over the country, but their potential was no unleashed, until they moved to California.

Steve

2 Likes

Exactly. CA was where the opportunity was and probably still is. And that is largely because blue states tend to be more open to immigrants and invest more in education. The percentage of foreign-born entrepreneurs in the Bay Area is pretty high and a big attraction was the academic talent produced by the UC system.

Blue states tend to have much higher populations and GDP than red states. Tough to get high percent increases when starting off with a big number. Here are the top 20 US counties based on GDP. Looks like a definite blue tinge to me. If red counties are catching up, that’s great! It’s about time they pulled their weight and noteworthy that it is happening under a democrat administration.

1 Los Angeles Los Angeles California 790.016 81,268 9,721,138
2 New York New Yorka New York 780.966 489,243 1,596,273
3 Cook Chicago Illinois 417.565 81,727 5,109,292
4 Harris Houston Texas 402.792 84,250 4,780,913
5 Santa Clara San Jose California 382.787 204,595 1,870,945
6 King Seattle Washington 367.176 161,981 2,266,789
7 Dallas Dallas Texas 299.733 115,245 2,600,840
8 Maricopa Phoenix Arizona 290.240 65,525 4,551,524
9 Orange Anaheim California 270.441 85,822 3,151,184
10 San Diego San Diego California 257.341 78,548 3,276,208
11 San Franciscob California 233.953 289,389 808,437
12 Fulton Atlanta Georgia 195.682 182,092 1,074,634
13 Middlesex Cambridge Massachusetts 190.978 118,099 1,617,105
14 Miami-Dade Miami Florida 184.513 69,007 2,673,837
15 San Mateo Daly City California 165.414 226,849 729,181
16 Suffolk Boston Massachusetts 151.982 198,312 766,381
17 Travis Austin Texas 150.753 113,652 1,326,436
18 Hennepin Minneapolis Minnesota 150.146 119,153 1,260,121
19 Alameda Oakland California 148.710 91,289 1,628,997
20 District of Columbiac 144.030 208,876 689,545
2 Likes

The cross-pollination is a powerful driving force. Pre WWW it had to be face to face.

The Captain

Come on, bt, you can do better than that. We’re talking about the delta, the change – growth. As the ABC lead article put it, ‘Red state economies are surging’. On road trips, even as a casual traveler, I can feel the difference between someplace like Chicago and Dallas or Orlando.

DB2

Looking at the top 30 metro statistical areas for GDP growth from 2021 to 2022, here are their states:

FL   9 cities
TX   4
IN   4
TN   2
GA   1
NE   1
AZ   1
VA   1
NY   1
NJ   1
WV   1
IL   1
ID   1
KY   1

https://apps.bea.gov/itable/index.html?appid=70&stepnum=40&Major_Area=5&State=5&Area=XX&TableId=533&Statistic=1&Year=2022&YearBegin=-1&Year_End=-1&Unit_Of_Measure=PercentChange&Rank=1&Drill=1&nRange=5
DB2

1 Like