21 posts

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
1

No offense GrowthMonkey, but you have made twenty one posts to this board since yesterday morning ( 7/1/2018 7:46 AM). Don’t you think that’s monopolizing the conversation a little? You make some good points, but I would appreciate it if you consolidated your thoughts to a few posts instead of filling up the board. If anyone agrees with me they can like this post. Or if it’s just me, please ignore me.

Again, no offense meant…just a request from a fellow board member. Thanks.

Bear

PS - You asked me about Wix. None of its competitors (Squarespace, Wordpress, Weebly which is now owned by Square, etc, etc) bother me at all. I think there is plenty of need to go around. As for TAM, they already have 125 million sites…I don’t know if the TAM is 200m, 300m, 1 billion, and I don’t really care. I don’t see growth considerably slowing anytime soon, but I’m sure it will slow gradually.

99 Likes
2

Agreed Bear…but after he commented on not touching Nflx with a “barge pole” I stopped reading anyway.

p.s. This board is about finding the right Companies at hopefully the right time and holding accordingly until the story changes and then moving on but mainly about beating the markets even on a down day.

2 Likes
3

I don’t think it’s an issue, I appreciate his and others arguments that challenge the view of mostly on this board, including me. I think it’s healthy for all of us and he brings up some good points. Also he does it in a respectable manner, at least for me I don’t get any ax to grind undertones.

Chris.

74 Likes
4

Cobra appreciates the counter argument as well. I think it’s flat out dangerous to hear posters going from 70-80 positions to 10 in a short time period…

18 Likes
5

I agree w/Chris. Basically those 21 posts exist in one discussion thread. How does that monopolize the conversation?

Groupthink is unhealthy. Where we all think alike no one thinks very much.

Let’s put away the lynching tools.

🆁🅶🅱

17 Likes
6

I appreciate the points that Growth Monkey has brought up. The thread in question is in my opinion one of the best in recent memory and that type of discussion is what makes this place so special. Well reasoned alternative points of view make this a better place for everyone.

19 Likes
7

No offense Bear; but I made 21 posts in two threads; whereby others wrote to me and asked me for my thoughts. Clearly, you and many others don’t like my thoughts because they go against your beliefs and since my view is inconsistent with the momentum trading (under the guise of investing) prevalent here; you dedicated an entire post to my 21 posts and made a poll; to nip my voice in the bud.

So, me replying to other posters amounts to monopolising the board a little; yet when you and others post your monthly performance, bask in the glory and comment whenever you want; that doesn’t amount to monopolising the board a little!?

I was drawn to this board because I felt it was a place where various investors could bounce off ideas and challenge each other’s thesis and beliefs. As it turns out, this is not the case.

Again, no offense meant…I get it, henceforth I will not be visiting or posting on this board.

All the best to you all,

GM

16 Likes
8

I agree, sort of. It’s not the number of posts. it’s the irrelevance of the argument.

Like Saul, I’d like to think that everything I buy, I intend to hold for 5 years or more, but that’s just not the case. I most often sell sooner, sometimes much sooner when: 1) I recognize I’ve made a mistake, 2) there are significant changes in the investment thesis, 3) when a position becomes uncomfortably large, 4) when I need cash to buy something else, and 5) when I need cash for living expenses (which I try to keep as small as possible as I have outside retirement income). Saul calls this “modified buy and hold.” I call it prudent, strategic selling. It most definitely is not “trading” which I believe is simply focused on stock price with little regard for the company. I would never, never consider buying a company and then just go to sleep on that investment for 5 years. OK, everything eventually reverts to the mean, I buy that. But that doesn’t indicate that I’ll still be holding it when it does.

I also would not refer to these particular investments as “momentum” stocks as GM did, but I suppose we could argue about that because it’s an ill-defined term to begin with; I won’t argue, I’ll just assert that I disagree with the label.

So far as I’m concerned, GM has made a great argument for his position, but his argument is not germane to the strategies followed by Saul and other members of this board who try to emulate Saul’s successful methodology without just trying to copy his transactions.

GM leans on his 20 years of investment experience as the foundation of his argument. But, if you read the knowledgebase, Saul also has some 20+ years of investment experience, so I can’t give that a whole lot of credibility.

However, I’m not trying to say that GM is not a successful investor (though he does not provide any evidence of it). There’s lots of different strategies for successful investing in the market. Buyandhold used to post here pretty often. He focused on income producing stocks. From his posts, he’s doing very well. I have no reason to doubt him. Only thing is, just like GM, his strategy is not consistent with those promulgated and followed on this board.

7 Likes
9

GM,

First of all, while my post got a lot of likes, so did Chris’s here: http://discussion.fool.com/i-don39t-think-it39s-an-issue-i-appre…

I agree with Chris that you’ve been asking well-meaning questions. I think the thing to do is simply to consolidate your posts a bit, not to stop posting or alter the content. For example, my last 21 posts span back to 6/18.

Sorry if I made you feel unwelcome. I hope you don’t leave.

Bear

10 Likes
10

GM,

While I don’t agree with much of what you said (my NFLX investment reduced my retirement age by about 7 years, at least), your investment opinions are welcome here anytime. I also don’t agree with your definition of “trading” but to each his own. For example, would you consider it trading if I bought a stock but 2 months later I sold it because I found a better equity to invest in? I wouldn’t but you seem to think that’s the case from what I gathered in your posts.

All opinions in the investing world are valuable IMO. I think Bear, Saul and most would agree.

MC

11 Likes
11

Hi Brittlerock,

However, I’m not trying to say that GM is not a successful investor (though he does not provide any evidence of it). There’s lots of different strategies for successful investing in the market. Buyandhold used to post here pretty often. He focused on income producing stocks. From his posts, he’s doing very well. I have no reason to doubt him. Only thing is, just like GM, his strategy is not consistent with those promulgated and followed on this board.

LOL, I brought PAYC, NVDA, INFN, and many other Tech stocks to this board. Can you name any income producing stocks I brought to this board? I may have talked about some income producing stocks but never brought any to the board. I just want to set the record straight.

I have been very busy with work, training new people, since most of my co-workers retired and left only a few of us behind. I wish I was retired so that I could delve deeper into companies and bring them to the board. I just do not have the time right now.

GM is correct. He only responded to other people responding to his posts. I found nothing he said to be attacking anyone or trying to upset anyone only trying to set forth his viewpoint.

Also this board gets clogged up by may people stating I was up, pick your percentage, today. Or my portfolio is up 90% this year but I only invest 1% of my portfolio and the rest is in index funds. How many people have multiple investing accounts and can pick anyone of them to prove how well they have done in a year. This is all completely meaningless and I believe clogs the boards.

As far as how Saul invests, He understands the market very well and is willing to move with the market. When he first started this board it was all about earnings, and he even brought up the 1ypeg and was showing people how to use it to invest. You never hear anyone even mention the 1ypeg now. Then he found the cloud stocks and started investing more on Revenue and margins. I agree it was harder for me to make this change, but then I do not follow but have to understand what I invest in. Some people on this board, even though Saul has warned them, just are following Saul’s portfolio. Those are the people that GM is trying to warn.

It is amazing to see how Saul has changed his investing method. It is very thought provoking and makes me ponder how I invest. I agree with GM that investing in companies that have no earnings is more risky but it can also be more rewarding, especially if they make it to where they finally have earnings. If you look at what Saul did during the dot.com boom he realized that the stocks had become very pricey and sold out of them and bought into many stocks that could be called value stocks. So that is something everyone has to think about, when the music stops where are you going to be?

This board used to be all about investors bringing up investment ideas and putting together write ups and discussing why they were good or bad. Instead of trying to run people down, that have good ideas, or feeling you have to attack somebody because they disagree with you. I urge you to try focusing on your investments and being a better investor.

Andy

57 Likes
12

GM, Let me remind you, you posted:

For a while; giddy-eyed investors . . .

. . . those who accept this as a long-term trend or ‘new normal’ will be sorely disappointed!

So, investing in a bunch of high-growth, momentum stocks without any regard to valuation is not investing, it is speculation.

Good luck to all

Those sentiments are an attack as opposed to a cool, objective warning. “Giddy-eyed” is not a complimentary term no matter who are addressing in any context.

Just a couple of months ago Saul said he was going to stop posting monthly results as he felt they were misleading. He is acutely aware that this is not “normal.” So your suggestion is what, forgo those potential gains and invest in Clorox?

“Momentum” is an ill-defined term, so we could go round and round on that one, but I think most generally it implies investing in ticker with a rapidly rising price with little regard for the underlying business. That’s not at all what’s going on with this board.

And then you assert that this isn’t investing at all, but rather just a lot of speculation.

And you tagged out with a rather sarcastic “good luck” as if everything being advocated here is a matter of luck as opposed to a well reasoned, thoughtful strategy based on business fundamentals.

Criticism of investment suggestions and company analysis are welcome here by just about everyone who follows this board with only a few exceptions (i.e., steer clear of TSLA commentary).

I get it, henceforth I will not be visiting or posting on this board.

A bit hypersensitive GM. We’re all adults here. To enter in attack mode and leave with an injured ego strikes me as juvenile.

13 Likes
13

B&H,
I, in no way meant to denigrate you or your investing style. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I was under the impression that your focus was an income portfolio. Either I forgot, or was not aware of the growth stocks you brought to the board. I tend to read posts without paying much attention to who posted. I apologise. I made money on two out of three, in fact I still hold NVDA.

I wrote a much longer post, but hit the wrong button and poof, gone. Just as well.

Saul’s criteria for choosing investments has indeed changed over time. I would be surprised if that were not noticed by most followers of this board. But his method? Saul is a growth investor. He bases his decisions on company fundamentals as reported quarterly. That has not changed. But, the landscape of growth companies has changed. A savvy investor such as Saul would take notice of this and rather than remain wedded to an outdated set of criteria he would (and has) made adjustments.

So yeah, when I first started reading this board Saul espoused using log paper to track the companies he was invested in and considered a P/E of 20 the norm. That was appropriate for the companies he followed. Now we have enormous growth with IT s/w companies where the goal is to dominate a niche and pretty much hold a monopoly position. Companies now sell subscriptions rather than products. Big data has become a reality for almost every business that desires to stay in business. Data integration, analysis, storage, security, transmission, etc. is the lifeblood of commerce. This requires a different model. Investment decision also require a different model. Saul still invests in growth, just as he always did.

5 Likes
14

Wow scared off growth monkey? A sad day indeed!

Who needs everyone singing from the same songbook?

19 Likes
15

Brittlerock,

I believe you meant buyandwin, not buynholdisdead. Buyandwin is an income investor: http://discussion.fool.com/living-off-an-income-portfolio-326932…

Andy,

Glad you are doing well. I had forgotten you were the one who brought Paycom here. Thanks for that one! Still holding. I’m a lot busier these days too, though I still read the board closely. Hopefully, in the not too distant future we’ll both be able to contribute more!

Matt

2 Likes
16

However, I’m not trying to say that GM is not a successful investor (though he does not provide any evidence of it). There’s lots of different strategies for successful investing in the market. Buyandhold used to post here pretty often. He focused on income producing stocks. From his posts, he’s doing very well. I have no reason to doubt him. Only thing is, just like GM, his strategy is not consistent with those promulgated and followed on this board.

For anyone interested in how I’m doing in the 2 1/2 years since I originally posted here. My portfolio has been geared for income and is currently up 61.5% in the 2 1/2 years and has reached a level of about 4 times my needs . The excess income has been re-invested in additional income securities that have provided the 38% portfolio growth during that time.

If anyone wants any further info , please send me an e-mail, as I don’t want to clog up the board for those that aren’t interested.

Thanks for reading–good luck investing

b&w

9 Likes
17

Thanks for posting B&W. I remember your story. Kinda tough when you were younger but you persevered and are now enjoying success. I think that’s awesome.

Almost always more than one way to skin a cat.

Kindest regards,
Steve

1 Like
18

Brittlerock

B&H,
I, in no way meant to denigrate you or your investing style. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I was under the impression that your focus was an income portfolio. Either I forgot, or was not aware of the growth stocks you brought to the board. I tend to read posts without paying much attention to who posted. I apologise. I made money on two out of three, in fact I still hold NVDA.

I didn’t take it as a denigration Brittle. There are many ways to invest, like you say. I know many fine income investor’s and value investor’s. I just wanted to set the record straight. Maybe you saw a post of mine on another board and that’s why you thought that. I just this year put a fifth of my portfolio into dividend paying stocks. I think they will drop less and give me a return instead of having cash. It’s my way of planning for a down turn. The rest of my portfolio is in Growth stocks. I reached my investment goal this year and will be retiring at 57, in two years. I need to have 30 years with my company to get my full pension and I do not want to leave any of it on the table.

Saul’s criteria for choosing investments has indeed changed over time. I would be surprised if that were not noticed by most followers of this board. But his method? Saul is a growth investor. He bases his decisions on company fundamentals as reported quarterly. That has not changed. But, the landscape of growth companies has changed. A savvy investor such as Saul would take notice of this and rather than remain wedded to an outdated set of criteria he would (and has) made adjustments.

Yes he has made adjustments and done very well. But I do not agree that the criteria he no longer follows is outdated, it’s just a different way of investing. Markets move in cycles and right now the cloud services are running hard but who is to stay that the low cap value stocks will not come into vogue soon. When they rotate I am sure that Saul will see it and rotate with it. So instead of saying its outdated I would just say it has changed for the time being.

So be well Brittle and happy fourth of July

Andy

3 Likes
19

Rizz said:

Wow scared off growth monkey? A sad day indeed! Who needs everyone singing from the same songbook?

Apparently, it is Growth Monkey who prefers everyone singing the same tune. I enjoyed his point of view, for the brief period he provided it, as well as the responses from Saul and others.

John

4 Likes
20

Yes, you are right. My apologies. But no, I did not bring Paycom to the board. I’ve not got a good track record for bringing picks to the board. I brought Brinks to the board and it went nowhere, I bailed on it after a couple of quarters. Everything else that I’ve looked at did not seem to pass muster upon closer examination so I’ve not been a contributor with specific investment ideas. Most of my commentary has been with respect to my IT industry knowledge, and even that is growing rapidly stale as my years in retirement grow.

Frankly, I’m still pretty much a newbie trying to develop better skills at analysis of quarterly reports. Saul blows me away with his ability to look a situation and ferret out the hidden information and other implications. When Uber bailed on Twilio is a prime example. Saul was able to see the underlying growth while nearly everyone else saw a big negative for the company. And he freely admits he doesn’t know jack about IT.

2 Likes