If correct, the estimate would account for roughly 18% of China’s 1.4 billion people and represent the largest Covid-19 outbreak to date globally and likely result in over 1 milliion deaths.
The figures cited were presented during an internal meeting of China’s National Health Commission (NHC) on Wednesday, according to both outlets – which cited sources familiar with the matter or involved in the discussions. The NHC summary of Wednesday’s meeting said it delved into the treatment of patients affected by the new outbreak.
The figures are in stark contrast to the public data of the NHC, which reported just 62,592 symptomatic cases in the first 20 days of December. CNN has reached out to the NHC for comment.
Facing growing skepticism that it is downplaying Covid deaths, the Chinese government recently defended the accuracy of its official tally by revealing it had updated its method of counting fatalities caused by the virus.
According to the latest guidelines from the National Health Commission, only those whose death is caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure after contracting the virus are classified as Covid deaths, Wang Guiqiang, a top infectious disease doctor, told a news conference Tuesday.
If correct, the estimate would account for roughly 18% of China’s 1.4 billion people and represent the largest Covid-19 outbreak to date globally and likely result in over 1 milliion deaths.
Notably, the outbreak is expected to continue accelerating. It hasn’t yet reached peak rate of infections.
Covid deaths usually are about 20 days after infection. We are not at that point yet relative to the main outbreaks that began in major cities in mid-December. Additionally, it takes time for healthcare systems to go into overload and death rates to jump up. I think there will be bad news from China throughout January.
Agreed. There will knock-on after effects for the world economy as well, as factory closings and port closings and delayed shipping increase (as they have before), so expect economic impacts through the first half of 2023 at least.
I’m not goin to predict it, but it seems possible, perhaps likely there will be supply chain issues for those companies heavily sourced in China, and that could result in some inflation-rebound - again not a result of helicopter money, but in “regular money” chasing scarce items as before.
The Chinese government says the official vaccination rate is over 90%, but that is, by most outsiders accounts, an aspirational number and not reality. (They have vaccine hesitancy too!) Tie that to the fact that the Chinese vaccine is said to be only about 50% effective vs. those in the West of 90+% efficacy, and its hard to see how China makes it through this period unscathed.
I know nothing about Chinese politics, so I won’t speculate that this might lead to some sort of regimen change, but it appears the future of The Great Middle Country is going to be rocky.
It may be worse. I have heard that antibody titer has been measured about 1/10 of mRNA vaccine levels, and most Chinese people will have been vaccinated quite some time in the past by now.
Variant XBB.1.5 is coming out of our North East at a rapid pace. It will hit China as she is trying to recuperate. In other words China’s new Covid battle will be prolonged.
There are ins and outs to immunity in the west v China v India. XBB.1.5 wont matter much to India because of prior infections with a related variant. In the US we are all mostly ready for Omicron. We are not Covid naive. China is.
The inflationary pressures are off of Chinese goods. Shipping is down. The cost of inputs is somewhat down. Pure supply chain problems are not equivalent to global lock downs in 2020. In fact China wont be locking down at all. There may be no supply problems.
The big two items for the markets this year are US paper being sold off and the Neon supplies. It is so early in the year there is still calm. In fact regardless of market valuations the US economy is doing extremely well.