3 Month Gain Dec 19, 2025

Investment Analysis Clubs Liquid Lounge
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Here are my numbers for this month. See the attached Excel file for details.

Its been a tough month. Investors are nervous especially about all the earnings tied to billion dollar investments in AI. Some say it’s a bubble. Some say they can’t all make the profits they envision. Who will be the winners? I continue to believe AI has lots of potential. I’m not selling and am taking the opportunity to add some more. Lots of ++ flat listings. Above moving averages but not moving up.

My list of 189 stocks included 34 up over 15% in the last three months. That included lots of tech stocks led by Sandisk, Western Digital, Teradyne, and Micron. Memory chips seem to be in high demand. AI is hungry for them and prices are up. PC makers are complaining.

Also in the 15% plus list are a few drug companies–Lilly, Regeneron, IONS, and Merck. Also Dollar General–seems to be making a comeback. Dupont shows up again. Has to be spinning off more weaker business. Not a growth company. A few gold players. Caterpillar and Cummins (selling diesels for data center backup power). And a few defense stocks.

Double hats were sparse. Seagate and Viking made my list. I decided to buy those two plus Sandisk and more Micron. I sold Netflix after their proposed acquisition of Warner-Discovery seems to be in for a long antitrust approval. And I sold MPWR, an under performer.

The median was 1.11 up from -1.9 last month. VFINX my S&P 500 indicator came in at 2.15.

The low end included quite a list: SMR, RBLX, ORCL, PCT, ALAB, MOS, HOG, AXON, NFLX, NVO, RACE, SPOT, OKLO, VEEV. All down more than 20%.

Looking at the sectors–

Tech stocks. Best: Sandisk, Western Digital, Terradyne, and Micron. All 63% or more. Worst: Oracle, ALAB, VEEV. All worse than -20%

ETFs/Mutual Funds. Best. SOXX (Philadelphia semiconductor index), EIRL (Ireland). Both 11 to 13%. Worst. KWEB (China), FDIVX, FXI (China) -5 to -12.5%

Homebuilders. Best Toll Brothers +0.07% All others negative -10 to -17%

Paint and Hardware. All negative -6 to -17%

Drugs. Best Lilly, Regeneron, IONS, XBI, Merck All 24 to 42%. Worst NVO, Abbott -21.6 to -7.8%

Beer and cigarettes. Best BUD, TAP, Constellation Brands 1.6 to 8.6%. Worst Altria, Boston Beer. -10-5 to -10.1%

Manufacturing Best Caterpillar, Cummins. 19.6 to 23.5. Worst ITW, Boeing -4.5 to -0.7

Chemicals. Best Dupont, Ashland, Corning. 10.4 to 26.3%. Ashland reports reorganization intended to improve profits. Added to list. Worst PCT, Air Products, Olin, Linde. All -36 to -12%.

Autos and parts. Best CLF, Tesla 13 to 14%. Worst Ferrari, Autozone, BYD -21 to -17%

Finance. Best Accenture, American Express 10 to 13%. Worst Robinhood, Intuit. -2.7 to -2.4

Toys. Best Polaris, Hasbro 10.6 to 25.7%. Polaris spinning off Indian Motorcycles leaving water skis, ATVs, and snowmobiles. Worst. Roblox, Harley, Netflix, Spotify -39 to -20.7%

Instruments. All positive. Waters, Thermo Fisher, Agilant. 8.6 to 25.7%

Railroads. All positive. Best Wabtec 14.5%. Worst Norfolk Southern 2.7%

Consumers. Best Dollar General +34.44%. Worst UTZ, Uber. -19%

Travel Best Delta, Viking, and Marriot. 15.5 to 18.9%. Worst Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines, Alaska Air, Norwegian Cruise Lines -10.6 to -8.7%

Agriculture Best Bunge 15.54% Worst Mosaic -30%

Energy/Commodities. Best AU, NEM, GLDM, BAR 18.9 to 33.4%. Worst SMR, OKLO -57.8 to -20.7%

Defense Best HII (contract to build navy frigates), Raytheon +22.4 to 15.0%. Worst AXON -23.3%

From the best in each group rank is 1 Tech, 2 Drugs, 3 Consumers, 4 Commodities/energy, 5 Instruments. The worst groups 1 Paint and hardware, 2 Homebuilders, 3 beer & cigarettes, 4 Finance, 5 Autos & parts.

3 Likes
Investment Analysis Clubs
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3 Month Gain 19-Dec-25
Dec 19 2025
SMR none -57.84
RBLX none -39.38
ORCL 34 -37.81
PCT none -36.16
ALAB e107 -32.95
MOS 30.5 -29.96
HOG 8.7 -24.96
AXON 178 -23.28
NFLX 56 -21.85 dndn flat sell
NVO e37 -21.68
RACE 61 -21.12
SPOT loss -20.79
OKLO none -20.71
VEEV 71 -20.13
UTZ 54 -19.58
UBER 16 -19.49 dndn dip
NOW e67 -18.09
AZO 18.8 -18.07 dndn dip
BYDDY e26 -17.41
KBR 19 -17.37
APD 29 -17.30
HD 26 -17.01
CDNS 76 -15.65
OLN e6.5 -15.57
META 30 -15.37 -50 flat
LEN 7 -15.18
GRMN 30.6 -14.25
URI 25.69 -13.83
DHI 13.13 -12.55
KWEB 34 -12.51
ORLY 30 -12.44
ANET 51.99 -12.36
PYPL 29 -12.33
LIN 41.6 -12.02
RDDT 32 -11.83
DASH 302 -11.70
WHR 14 -11.01
RCL e15 -10.65 ++ rec
MO 39 -10.51
PANW 203 -10.24
J e23 -10.12
SAM -10.11
COST 47 -10.04
ALK 20.88 -9.17
NCLH 170 -8.68
ABT 31 -7.78
SHW* 38 -7.48 dndn dip
PG 28 -7.42
ADSK e34 -7.00
FDIVX ok recov -6.87
CTVA 33.8 -6.42
MSFT 35.8 -6.18 -50 flat
PPG 24 -6.16
FXI 10.57 -5.69
ADM 26.4 -5.53
CVX 16 -5.42
ESI 37 -5.09
ITW 25 -4.48
CE 9.4 -4.43
CRWD e71 -4.23
DELL 20.8 -4.18
FSPTX -4.13
AN 11.65 -3.99
ARKK 38.05 -3.78 -50 rec
PM 25.8 -3.75
HOOD e32 -2.75 -50 rec
ADBE 54 -2.74
INTU 63 -2.42
FSEAX -2.16
FLVCX -2.15
FICDX -2.05
AMZN$ e94 -1.78 -50 flat
TXN 24 -1.72
ENOR -1.61
AVGO e44 -1.33 -50 rec
DOW$ 7 -0.98
NOC 21.88 -0.80
BA none -0.73
CHEF 42 -0.72
ECL 35 -0.71
HSY 32 -0.48
FAGIX -0.28
EWJ -0.26
TOL 9.76 0.07 ++ flat
BLE 0.10
EADSY 35 0.14
DE 20.7 0.20
LMT 18.7 0.25
BRK.B 12.9 0.34
VXF 0.38
INDA 0.39
IEMG 0.62
JPM 17 0.77
JBL 15 1.02
XLF 1.09
BWXT 45 1.11
LHX 27 1.24
STZ e22 1.57
ABBV 65.3 1.96 ++ flat
CCL 218 1.97
GE 38.7 2.02 ++
KBE 2.07
VFINX 2.15 ++
V 35.8 2.24
MPWR 19.57 2.26 -50 flat
TAP e12 2.38
HEI 69.6 2.48
MLM 28 2.48
NVDA e34.8 2.49 -50 rec
NSC 37 2.71
KRE 9.4 2.91
XOM 17 3.43
ZM 22.7 3.44
MCD 28 4.45
PEP 4.51
BE 735 4.58
SSO 4.70
GD 19.9 4.71
XLK 37.72 4.74 ++ rec
SCHW 25.8 4.76
QCOM 21 5.03
ITA 5.17
CRM e31 5.19
EWU 5.27
QLD 5.30
KO 28 5.46
GEV e92 5.46
PLTR e268 6.03
HWM 57.7 6.10
UNP 25 6.17 ++
IDXX 48 6.73
TXT 22.8 6.98
UAL 11 7.22
CEG 31.85 7.40
BUD 20 8.64
A 52 8.64
APH 42 9.16 ++ rec
VMI 34 9.73
AXP 20 10.37
GLW 84.64 10.43 ++ flat
HAS 38 10.56
GEHC 20 10.65
CSX 21 10.67 .++ flat
MTD 38 10.82
APP 75 11.05
EIRL 11.22
AAPL 30 11.47 ++ dip
SOXX 12.77
TSLA e62 12.94
ASML 18.9 13.29
ACN 34 13.58
CLF 5 13.87
WAB e24 14.54 ++ ^
AMGN 42 14.71
CSCO 25.13 14.97
RTX 38 15.02 ++ stairs
ASH 15.05 ++ stairs
MAR 25 15.51 ++ bumpy ^
BG 9 15.54 -50 dip
PH 18 15.76 ++ stairs
VIK e15 17.72 ^^ buy
TMO 26 18.40 -50 rec
DAL 8.8 18.91 ++ ^
BAR 18.94 ++ ^
GLDM 19.00 ++ ^
KLAC 24 19.22 ++ ^
IBB 19.25 ++ flat
CMI 19 19.61 ++ flat
GOOGL 27 20.59 ++ flat
HII 14.4 22.36 ++
CAT* 16 23.51 ++ dip
MRK 19 24.02 ++ flat
WAT 29 25.65 ++ dn
PII$ 13 25.67 ++ flat
DD 19.3 26.26 ++ stairs flat
XBI 27.67 ++ flat
IONS none 28.88 ++ flat
NEM 17.69 29.33 ++ flat
REGN 31 29.73 ++ flat
AU 20.79 33.44 ++
STX e28.8 33.96 ^^ buy
DG 21 34.44 ++ stairs ^
AMD 129 35.61 -50 rec
LRCX 16 35.73 ++ ^
LLY e37 42.48 ++ flat
MU e13.9 63.41 ++ buy
TER e57.4 64.27 ++ stairs
WDC e25.4 69.82 ++ ^
SNDK e48.7 140.33 ++ flat buy
Median 1.11
Code
++ above both the 50 day and 200 day moving average
-50 below the 50 day moving average
-200 below the 200 day moving average
dl Dogleg. Flat after former gain. Likely to become a sell soon
dndn below both the 50 and 200 day moving average
^^ usually over 20% growth rate and steady growth
^ gain in last month or so. Possilbe future ^^
stairs major price shift (rather than steady growth)
dip trending down recently
rec recovering from recent dip. Up trend
bumpy wild price variations
flat share price steady rather than up or down
$ Low growth on 1 yr list. Sell at first opportunity
* Long term holding. Tend to keep.
ePE Estimated forward PE usually on 4x last qtr earnings.
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Those who think index funds are a good investment should take a close look at these numbers. You can often beat the S&P by a lot by picking the right stocks.

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“Those who think index funds are a good investment should take a close look at these numbers. You can often beat the S&P by a lot by picking the right stocks.”

Paul,

In what sense are derivatives of the cap-weighted SP50 index, such as SPY, VFINX, etc. “index funds” when a quarter of their performance is driven by just 4 to 7 tickers? Also, in what sense is the large-cap SP500 index a good benchmark by which to compare how one might doing by buying small or mid-cap growth stocks?

A 3-month avg gain of sub 2% across 188 stock positions, with loses on many far in excess of a prudent, maximum (-8%)? You gotta be kidding. T-bills would pay nearly as well. And why no exposure to precious metals, both the physical and the producers? You do know, for example, that the silver producers have been doing well, with a 3-month gains averaging between 35% and 79% and many of the gold producers offering similar results. (As one example of something that’s done well for me, I’m up 322% on PAAS, because I was buying it when it should have been bought, when it was over-sold but had solid fundamentals.)

Take a look at your worst holder, SMR, and run its fundamentals. It’s no mystery why you lost money on that dog. No matter the hope and hype, over-paying is overpaying.

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SHW offers the same over-bought profile, and Bar Chart gives it a technical rating of 100% SELL.

In its day, HOG was a good company and a hot stock. These days it’s a has-been.

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Humble suggestion. You need to stop listening to Wall Street’s myth makers and to start thinking like a grocer. If customers aren’t buying your products, then you need to stop owning them. And yeah, I too am surprised that stocks like MOS aren’t doing better. But them’s the facts and that’s what needs to be traded, not the stocks --fill in the blank-- that the sell side hustlers argue will be the next economic or tech miracle.

As for AI, it’s a scam, no matter the money being poured into it by them who want to control the flow of information, and it’s a trade I refuse to do.

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Mosaic is a spin off of a former employer. I have visited several of their sites. Their business is seasonal. Should be best in Spring quarter. Their potash is mostly in Canada and subject to tariffs for now. U.S. requirement requires imports from somewhere. Will US customers pay the tariff?

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Paul,

Yeah, MOS --and similar, e.g., ICI-- should be doing well, because they selling an essential product, just as the ag companies should be doing well. (People need to eat, no matter the economy.) But they aren’t, not that I don’t keep trying to catch a trend.

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As to AI, I think the risks are well known at this point. Each investors has to decide for self how to play it. Those who make the right choices will do better.

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As to ICI, Wikipedia confirms it no longer exists. Imperial Chemical Industries - Wikipedia

It was the British national chemical company back in the day. In the US owned National Starch. Sold paint under the Dulux brand name. But water under the bridge.

Other ag stocks on my list are Bunge, ADM, Deere, Corteva, CF Industries.

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Opps. My bad. I wrote ICI and meant ICL, an Israeli fertilizer company I’ve traded before but wouldn’t mess with now that it isn’t trading at a discount and SWS isn’t projecting earnings and rev growth rates for it.

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Paul,

The risks of AI are NOT well known. It’s an emerging industry that needs to be shut down, not encouraged, same-same with the MIC complex and most of big pharma.

How things will play out for AI is a fool’s errand to guess. As the late, great economist, Yogi Berra, one said, “It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.”

But I do know this. If Wall Street is pushing an investment scheme, be it AI, nuke power, cryptos, whatever, the smarter, safer play is to ignore them. They’re just talking their book, looking for suckers to sell to before they rotate on to their next scheme and scam.

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Re: ICL. Israel Chemicals Limited ended up w Monsanto’s phosphorus business. They have a plant in St Louis and announced plans to build a lithium iron phosphate EV battery electrode plant. We’re given incentives to build in north StL industrial away from plant in south StL. But then incentives were withdrawn and project was terminated.

I cooped for Monsanto’s phosphorus business 60 years ago. They had furnace acid phosphorus business mostly for detergent phosphate and spun off business to jv w FMC when phosphates came out of detergents. Big furnace phosphate plants in Idaho. Not sure if ICL got those. Wet acid is cheaper and solvent extraction process can upgrade to furnace acid quality. Food grade acid for Coca-Cola is probably major furnace acid customer.

Round-up is a phosphorus chemical. Requires furnace phosphorus converted to phosphorous acid via phosphorus trichloride.

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Paul,

Thanks for the deep dive into ICL. Had I known they had anything to do with Monsanto, I’d never have given them a second look.

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Phosphorus is one of Monsanto’s product silos. They ran world scale phosphorus plants at Columbia, TN and Soda Springs, ID, shipped white phosphorus to plants everywhere and made dozens of phosphorus derivatives to keep phosphorus plants running at capacity. Major competitors were FMC and Stoffer.

Product silos are common in the chemical industry as a strategy to make large capital investments profitable. But companies usually don’t talk about them.

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The risks of AI are NOT well known.

I think Nvidia is unlikely to go bankrupt. They design chips and have them made at foundries like Taiwan Semiconductor. They do not have major investment in new manufacturing capacity to support. If AI business fades, they have little downside risk.

Inventory could be a loss but for now they can sell all they can produce. Inventory is likely small. Unpaid bills by customers is a risk but they will be in bk court seeking funds.

Yes, sales can slow and profits can flatten but they will not be driven out of business.

Plus they are excellent at developing new markets. So far it has been video chips for games, self driving cars and bit coin mining. Strong companies routinely invest profits in new business ideas. Some like AWS for Amazon do very well. Nvidia is well managed and is likely to reinvent itself when the time comes.

Yes, companies like Oracle borrowing heavily to fund AI are at risk if the venture fails. Most players are investing cash flow, not borrowing.

Many other players participate as suppliers to the industry. Caterpillar, Cummins, GE Veranova, Amphenol, Corning are examples. Each benefits from AI business but none is making major investment to supply. AI failure will slow down earnings but bk is unlikely.

I think AI concerns are not well thought out. Yes, the AI assets could become worthless but that seems unlikely. Dark data centers are probably two years away at best.

Mostly AI concerns are the herd effect. Someone maybe knows something, but concerns are way overdone. Yes, investors should be cautious.

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Paul,

BK for the major players in AI isn’t my concern. I’m more worried about the societal impact of relinquishing human judgment to an unknown coder somewhere, not even acting from malevolent purposes, but just not aware of the consequences of his or her product.

That aside, the current hype over the miracles AI is supposed to confer reminds me of the hype prevailing in the dot com era. Or to go further back in history, how many of the car manufacturers there once were are still in business?

Actually, AI isn’t anything new. People were exploring it back in the '70s , trying to create interactive programs that would pass the Turing test, when I was doing my grad work at Berkeley. And efforts to harness chaos theory to make automated trading decisions go back maybe even further. There used to be forums devoted to building neural nets --these days called trading bots-- where it was fun to hang out. A friend spent 16 months building one and then went completely algo and profitable.

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Yes, people are concerned about AI miss deeds. Much of this is merely the latest round of fear of automation. That goes back to at least the 1920s. Yes, AI has been through several rounds of grand expectations that have failed to deliver. Finally we seem to have software and computer power to deliver practical productivity gains. Yes, it could all melt but for now optimism is high.

I still think investors mostly worry about the financial consequences of failure to make anticipated profits.

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The fear of automation is centuries old. E.g., the weavers’ strikes in England and the Luddite movement. So the concerns that a new technology, such as AI, will displace workers is nothing new and doesn’t concern me. Some workers will be displaced, and some new jobs will emerge. So the employment issue is a wash.

My opinion is this. Anyone who is betting on AI isn’t an ‘investor’ in any meaningful sense of the term. He/she is just a ‘speculator’, hoping that things will work out. They might. They might not. It’s not as if some new technologies haven’t proven useful. And its not as if some have faded into oblivion. At this point, no one can know how the future will play out. So the question for a would-be bettor on AI should be this,

“How much money --as a percentage of AUM-- might it be prudent to bet on AI?”

I’ve got a bet on, as do many people. But I know full well it’s a speculative bet. So it will continue to be a very tiny part of my portfolio until AI really has proven its worth and its durability and isn’t just a fad that will fade. To quote the poet,

The Worldly Hope men set their Hearts upon
Turns Ashes—or it prospers; and anon,
Like Snow upon the Desert’s dusty Face
Lighting a little Hour or two—is gone.

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Isn’t that true of every new technology. When is that not the case?

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Paul,

That was my point to you in an earlier post. You had said that the risks of investing in AI are well known. My reply was that betting on AI isn’t ‘investing’ in any meaningful sense of the term. It’s just ‘speculating’, nor are the risks well known, because they can’t be. AI is an emergent technology, never mind dealing with the accounting problems of anyone’s 10Q and 10k reports even if those reports scrupulously follow GAAP rules, never mind indulging in the well-known and frequently-used hedges and fudges the preparers of those reports often use.

There’s too much money being poured into AI for many of them involved with its development not to be over-promising and under-delivering, if not outright lying. Today, AI is all but the blackest of black boxes in terms of a would-be investor trying to estimate what the risks might be of betting money on its future.

Yeah, I’m an investing cynic. But I also keep myself out of a lot of trouble. It’s a skill and stance that served me well when I was trafficking in junk bonds and making good money from the game. There are plenty of books that teach a would-be investor how to make sense of financial statements and how to unravel their misstatements or deliberate deceptions. But few investors make the effort to learn financial accounting or want to do the green eye shade work themselves. They’d rather believe the hype someone is feeding them and they really don’t much mind following the herd over the cliff, because it relieves them of all personal responsibility, i.e. they use the Nuremberg defense. “I was assured this would be a sure thing.”

Sometimes, the blind faith approach works well and all turns out well for the believers and early adopters, despite their cynics and naysayers. Sometimes, faith in the newest hot thing doesn’t work out so well. So, what’s a compromise solution? Bet widely. Bet small. And accept the fact that for every upside there seems to be for AI there are probably as many or more downsides, both financial and societal.

If the clock were rolled back and AI disappeared entirely from anyone’s ken, I’d be more relieved than grieved. AI is a Pandora’s box I don’t want any part of, though I’m willing to bet a bit of money on AI, just as I risk a bit of capital on a lot of things. When such risk capital ventures turn out well, one’s tendency is to wish one had bought more. But acting on that thought is the sure road to ruin. Or as a trader as proverb goes."Better a missed opportunity than a realized loss." If I don’t make a gain from betting on AI, how will my life be any different? It won’t be, obviously. In fact, time not wasted chasing the latest hot investing theme is time better spent on things like a daily bike ride.

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AI does have social issues that some find concerning. As usual crooks will be exploiting the technology. And some worry about bad advice like suicide instructions. Might take over etc.

Does have much potential to improve productivity. Not guaranteed but worth looking into.

Yes, may fail or some players may fail, but I think the odds of some successes are good.