94% of Germans say they won't buy a Tesla

Stocks A to Z
30

This is an existential problem, one wants to do the right thing without going broke doing it. Musk can afford it, I can’t afford Tesla going broke. Sell TSLA? The issue is the probability of the outcome of the political scuffle.

The issue is old. Decades ago the Italian journalist and novelist Oriana Fallaci has been writing about the consequences of the excess Muslim immigration to her country

“Yesterday, I was hysterical,” the Italian journalist and novelist Oriana Fallaci said. She was telling me a story about a local dog owner and the liberties he’d allowed his animal to take in front of Fallaci’s town house, on the Upper East Side. Big mistake. “I no longer have the energy to get really angry, like I used to,” she added. It called to mind what the journalist Robert Scheer said about Fallaci after interviewing her for Playboy, in 1981: “For the first time in my life, I found myself feeling sorry for the likes of Khomeini, Qaddafi, the Shah of Iran, and Kissinger—all of whom had been the objects of her wrath—the people she described as interviewing ‘with a thousand feelings of rage.’ ”

The Agitator
By Margaret Talbot
May 28, 2006
The New Yorker (behind a pay wall)

But the tide is turning.

The Captain

2 Likes
33

China builds an AI with less advanced chips.

Sputnik moments.
I dunno mebbe something we should be paying attention to.

4 Likes
34

A tough decision. I believe it will get worse before it gets better.
If one can exit with a profit; I would think that money could be deployed into other stocks not subject to the political issue.

I missed the Tesla investment. And I had thoughts of swooping in as the anti-Musk furor continued. Now I don’t believe I will do that. Too risky at age 73.

38

Here is a good Tweet where this guy is estimating Tesla deliveries. While he hasn’t hit it dead on he has done better than most of the other forecasters. But he is still to optimistic. Tesla is in for a rough year or two at least.

1 Like
39

Yes!

Yes!

The Captain

40

Elon has said several times that the real money is in robotaxis/FSD and humanoid robots.
Add in energy storage.

Let me paraphrase a meme that was coined a few years ago: “when someone tells you where her goals are, listen to her”.

Individual/private kars are not where Elon sees the $s.
Tesla is pivoting.

IMO.
:long_drum:
ralph owns less TSLA than in the past.

Elon told us he was moving AI out of Tesla. And he did.
xAI n Grok are separate entities.

SpaceX n Starlink, Boring Co are separate.

The data centers … Are spread around:
AI found this info:
{ “Elon Musk’s companies – Tesla, X Corp (Twitter), and xAI – are developing and operating data centers worldwide. Key locations for these facilities include Austin, Texas; Sparks, Nevada; several sites in California; Atlanta, Georgia; Hillsboro, Oregon; Memphis, Tennessee; and Shanghai, China.” }

Dojo, Colossus, ?

2 Likes
41

Tesla WILL be a $10 Trillion market cap in 5 years. The inflection point is here. Cybercab lauching this year. Shorts will get decimated.

42

My Tesla shares, between trading and calls, have a $-3.99 negative cost basis. Anchoring is a bad idea. Tesla is not pausing for the negative hoi polloi, They are starting to build a new MegaPack factory in Texas, The Semi factory in nearly finished, and Elon could sell his shares to Jeff Bezos. :clown_face:

The Captain

2 Likes
44

Tesla is progression. Like Amazon is/was progression.

  • From roadster to mass market
  • From battery cars to battery grid storage and VPPs
  • From EVs to EV Chargers
  • From private cars to robotaxis
  • From autonomous cars to humanoid robots
  • From buying batteries to making them and refining lithium
  • From passenger cars Semi trucks

The Captain

3 Likes
45

Right Ralph but not all pivots, pivot and it could take longer so the bottom could be much lower. I could see it hitting the lows of 1/2023 which would bring it down to around $110.

1 Like
47

I concur :slightly_smiling_face:.
The FUD is deep in this one.
So, I trimmed.
If it drops below 140 (just my personal anchor price), I’ll reevaluate and perhaps buy some more exposure.

This is the way.
:alien_monster:
ralph

1 Like
48

Right and they did show optimus with Kim Kardashian on X. Supposedly she bought one. So if they can get that going right away the car’s may not matter. I am must not sure how many business’s will buy them in the beginning.

1 Like
49

Tesla WILL be a $10 Trillion market cap in 5 years
This from a person who 2.5 years ago just as emphatically predicted UPST would be a $200 stock by (about) now.
(now @$48).

5 Likes
50

Sorry but no.

We did not turn against him because he switched parties. The vast majority of us could not care less about that.

4 Likes
51

Let me quote myself. “Sometimes he’s wrong.”

Boring tunnels is a nothing. Living on Mars is not going to happen, except as a propaganda exercise. Zip2 did not happen. PayPal developed differently than he thought.

FSD will likely be a very big thing, but it’s entirely possible that it will happen somewhere else with someone else by someone else. Maybe not, but there’s no assurance that Tesla will be first, or even dominant.

Robotaxis will be a business, whether it will be societal changing remains to be seen, and I (for one) am highly skeptical. But it can and will be a business for someone.

Humanoid robots is a maybe, and someday in the distant future a “probably.” Soon enough to matter? I doubt it

Energy storage is a now, and there are multiple companies pursuing it and none seem to have a moat of any significant dimension, nor a special sauce that might create one. But it’s necessary so it can be a nice business for many companies going forward.

I do believe “the goals.” I think they are speculative, at best.

3 Likes
52

IMO, it’s not binary. Elon will be somewhere between 100% wrong and 100% correct.

At any rate, Elon moved AI n Grok out of Tesla.
TSLA is LESS valuable.

So, I trimmed my position.

Yep.
And it’ll likely be a commodity.
So, I trimmed my position.

Yep.
IMO Elon is pivoting the “auto/car company” part of Tesla to running robotaxis as a service.
Elon gonna leave “private cars” mostly to other companies.
I’m less confident in this plan.

So, I trimmed my position.

Perhaps.
IMO too many other companies are also working on humanoid robots.
It’ll happen. One way or another.
And “somewhere else by someone else” is rather likely, making humanoid robots a commodity.

Tesla’s real strength here is deep pockets, engineering talent, and especially scaling up production.

So I kept a position.

Yep. Energy storage is growing.
Add in the energy arbitrage, distributed storage, and solar. And TX.

So I kept a position.

:peach:
ralph still has enough TSLA to make a difference.
Although perhaps not life changing?

2 Likes
53

IMG_0526
IMG_05261292×1640 199 KB

2 Likes
54

I am still looking for $110. Just give it some time.

5 Likes
55

I had a post here on a piece written by Will Lockett. It’s been disappeared, but you can find it elsewhere [ahem] Post #553 by Goofyhoofy on the Macroeconomic Trends and Risks board [/ahem] titled “This is how Tesla will die”.

It’s a bit over the top I admit, but I found it interesting. And then…I stumbled across this piece in the new Newsweek, a few words of which are reproduced here for your listening and dancing pleasure:

According to a 2024 Tesla filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission ([SEC], Musk has pledged 238.4 million shares "as collateral to secure certain personal indebtedness." At the time, Musk held a total of 715.0 million shares, meaning approximately one-third were being used as collateral for personal loans.

Musk currently owns around 411 million shares in Tesla, according to portfolio management service Whalewisdom, equating to a roughly 12.8 percent stake in the company.

It is currently unclear how many of Musk’s shares are currently collateralized, the loan-to-value ratio agreed by lenders, and how far Tesla stock would need to fall for him to face a margin call.

What People Are Saying

Attorney and legal commentator Tristan Snell, via X: “Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter was financed by borrowing money. He used his Tesla stock as collateral. If Tesla stock keeps crashing, the banks/creditors could repossess Twitter.”

Here’s a little gas to add to the burning Tesla conflagration: (Please note: Public Records quotations)

Tesla, in its 2022 annual SEC filing, said: “If [Elon Musk] were forced to sell shares of our common stock, either that he has pledged to secure certain personal loan obligations, or in satisfaction of other obligations, such sales could cause our stock price to decline.”

“We are not a party to these loans, which are partially secured by pledges of a portion of the Tesla common stock currently owned by Mr. Musk. If the price of our common stock were to decline substantially, Mr. Musk may be forced by one or more of the banking institutions to sell shares of Tesla common stock to satisfy his loan obligations if he could not do so through other means. Any such sales could cause the price of our common stock to decline further.”

One calculation says that the share price would have to decline a further 50% from where it is today, so it seems as though that’s a long way off. But the next few weeks - that is, until Tesla reports (end of April, I believe) - may have some interesting stories turning up, with more than a smattering of speculation.

2 Likes
56

So the share price I expect it to hit, $110 dollars, could have many benefits to the public.

2 Likes