Apparently something like 80% of Iranian shipping goes to China (largely oil). If Trump stops this it will presumably damage the Chinese economy. That’s easy enough, but I can almost guarantee that their is a Chinese ship heading to Iran now. What does Trump do about that? If the Chinese ship is boarded I suspect that China’s response will be economic.
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As I just wrote at Shrewdm, this is looking at the wrong end of the telescope:
“That seems the wrong percentage to focus on. The Iranian oil accounts for about 10% of China’s seaborne oil imports. (A smaller percent of total imports.) A 10% shortfall is bad but not catastrophic. (You’ll remember when OPEC stopped selling to us it was about 35% of our imports. And while it was very disruptive it didn’t end life in the country.
It will be tough for Iran to lose the revenue, surely, but again that would take time to manifest. It’s not as though the pain is going to be significant by Tuesday. This is a “siege” tactic, and sieges take time. Meanwhile US oil markets and the stock market will continue to be affected, so in this weird case it’s a siege that has the potential to work both ways: the suffering of the Iranian people vs Trump’s ability to withstand the pain of the market tanking. Given my knowledge of how the Iranian leadership thinks and how Trump thinks, you might guess which I think will give first.
I admit to not understanding the tactic: “If you won’t open the Strait, then we’re gonna close the Strait”. It surely is unconventional, but it seems fraught.
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But Hormuz was not totally closed; Iran was allowing half a dozen ships a day through after paying the Danegeld of some $2 million each. Hey, that’s over 4 trillion rial – per day!
DB2
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Reuters reports that a several tankers passed through this weekend while the US set up the blockade, screens and minesweeping operations.
https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-war-live-trump-says-us-begin-naval-blockade-irans-ports-strait-hormuz-2026-04-13/?
On Sunday, two Pakistan-flagged tankers, Shalamar and Khairpur, entered the Gulf to load cargoes from the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait; a third ship, the Liberia-flagged very large crude carrier (VLCC) Mombasa B, also transited the strait earlier on Sunday and was ballasting in the Gulf.
Another VLCC, the Malta-flagged Agios Fanourios I, which tried to pass through the strait on Sunday to load Iraqi crude destined for Vietnam, turned back and was anchored near the Gulf of Oman.
On Saturday, three fully loaded supertankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz in what appeared to be the first vessels to exit the Gulf since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal.
DB2
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Economics go both ways. For a year now China has cut its purchases of US oil to zero. This month suddenly they back to buying 600,000 barrels per day. It seems the US is that gas station you’re happy to find on a long, lonely stretch of desert highway.
DB2
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No. If the blockade is enforced, you are thinking only about losing export revenue, but Iran imports lot of essentials too. This blockade will decimate the country. Iran has no choice but to attack. At this point, I don’t even understand what is the point of any negotiations. US is rogue power that is working for Israel and any deal is not worth the paper it is written.
PS: for those who don’t believe, just look at today’ interview by netanyahu, where he matter of fact said, JD vance reported to him on the talks, and everyday US officials will report him on the days happening.
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So we are wasting all our tax $$$ on this. We are denying basic things to our citizen saying we cannot afford, things that cost $4~$5 B but are spending 100’s of billions on this war of choice… it is disgusting, especially as I am filing taxes, and considering how much tax I am paying, and thinking all my hard earned money is going for this… nauseating.
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