A Splash of Color (aka, Trading the Squeeze)

Take a look at this chart. (The ticker doesn’t matter. It could have been any tradable.)

The top panel is the Mansfield Comparative using RSP as the benchmark.
The second panel is a tweaked version of BarChart’s TTM Squeeze study.
The third panel is a 1-period smoothed HA plot, scaled in percentage, with hi/lo lookback flags.

Caveats: I’ve zero done zero backtesting so far. But to my eye, the setup looks as if it would keep one out of trouble for the change from green bars to yellow providing an early warning of trend change (and a signal to get ready
to sell) and an early ‘heads-up’ (and a signal to get ready to buy) when the bars turn from red to orange, especially when those conditions were confirmed by what’s happening in the top and bottom panels.

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Mike,

Here’s an answer to your question about my newest chart template, how to build it, and how one might use it.

BarChart offers an ‘indicator’–they call them ‘studies’-- called the TTM Squeeze, whose construction and intended use is well covered in StockChart’s Chart School.

Glance through that article if you wish. But the fastest way to understand what any indicator might do that might be useful is plot it and then throw a couple dozen stocks at it (drawn from a wide variety of industries and market conditions) and then watch how well it identifies the turning points in the trend. If the indicator mostly gets things right, then tweak it to see if the signaling can be made crisper. In the case of the TTM Squeeze indicator, I saw that the cross-overs were pretty good. But I hated the color scheme, and I didn’t see any need for the clutter created by the dots.

Rather than the default purples, blues, and pinks, this is what made sense to me. (I discovered later this is the color scheme TOS uses.)

  • If the bars were positive --meaning, above the midline-- and rising, then paint them ‘green’
  • If positive and falling, then ‘yellow’.
  • If negative and falling, then ‘red’.
  • If negative but rising, then ‘orange’.

I kept the default settings for the Bollinger and Keltner bands and the ‘Momentum’ lookback, but turned off the dots.

The main panel is just HA bars with Hi/Lo flags turned on as well as Divs plotted. Here’s an example where the template kills it, getting into the trend nearly as fast as is reasonable to expect from EOD trading.

What do you see? A Lo flag is planted, then ‘red’ bar, ‘red’ bar, then a 'green one. Note that the second red bar doesn’t print lower than the flagged low. Said another way, ‘Support’ was retested and held. That’s Bullish! Next, what’s the trend with the TTM bars? The bars turned from ‘red’ to ‘orange’ and 'orange is sticking. In short, price action is asking, “What else do you need? Should I ring a bell?”

But what this template is really, really good for is making snap decisions about whether the chart is worth digging into further, such as is often the case when slamming through a couple hundred charts when you’re in Flip Charts mode at BarChart.

“One second. Two seconds. Yea or Nay? Next chart.” Now, some specifics.

If the HA bars are ‘green’ AND the TTM bars are also ‘green’, you can assume you’re looking at a strong trend that you should have gotten onboard as it began.

Once a Hi flag is planted, Quill’s rules kick in. If the next HA bar is green AND the TTM is green, you can Hold. But if the TTM has turned a warning ‘yellow’, be ready to get out. If the next HA bar is ‘red’, then Quill has told you what to do. Ditto for entries. Use his rules.

In short, the template is merely a tweak to Quill’s Simple Simon Sez system that adds some early warnings. It doesn’t change the essentials of his system, nor does it prevent one from occasionally getting clobbered, as happened in the following chart. However, that situation could have been mitigated if one had been trailing a stop, which should always be done in the late Stage Three market we’re now in.

Charlie

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Many thanks Charlie! I will go over these indicators to make sure I understand what I’m seeing. I will probably have some questions ; ).

Mike

Mike,

Add one more indicator, a 5-period Triangular MA, thusly.

That’s a clean, easily-read chart, right? which invites making this rule.
“Never torture a chart into confessing to what you want it to tell you.”

Here’s a couple more:

(1) Make your bets equally-sized and small as a percentage of the account.
(2) Average up, never down.
(3) Before getting in, guess where you’d HAVE TO TO GET OUT if prices move against you. (Draw Support and Resistance lines on your charts.)

If you have questions, ask away. Meanwhile, find an investing/trading role model whose methods and advice make sense to you. Here’d be my short list:

Stan Weinstein, Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets
Justin Mamis, The Nature of Risk
Ben Graham, The Intelligent Investor
Edwin Lefevre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Charlie

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Which is actually about Jesse Livermore

Andy

Andy,

What is of value in the book and why traders nearly universally have read it and have learned from it is the insights into trader psychology the book provides.

What’s going to make or break an investor (or trader) isn’t some fancy-dancy, super-backed tested, assured-to-never fail investing/trading system, but how well he or she manages Fear and Greed, Hope and Despair and how fast they can recover physiologically from their inevitable mistakes and market misfortunes, which aren’t necessarily the same thing.

IMHO, 'natch.

What I took from it was this Charlie.

I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements— that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.

And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early, bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine—that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.

It really is a great book.

Andy

Andy,

Want a present-day instance of that need to have faith in one’s judgment?

Precious metals. Gold keeps getting whacked down, even though the central banks are buying it by the ton. For sure, the LME is manipulating prices, and naked short selling is happening. But so is de-dollarization, which will come to a head at the BRICS conference in Oct. The price of silver also isn’t reflecting fundamentals and its supply/demand dynamics.

Charlie

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True Charlie and the miners have all been going up also.

Andy

I own a bunch of the miners, and they’ve been doing well, but not as well as they should be if there weren’t such a global effort to distort the macro fundamentals and to lie about the facts.

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Tell me Charlie, Do you think we are in a bear market or a bull market at this time? Why?

Andy

Andy,

I think we’re in a bear market in terms of the underlying --and worsening-- fundamentals and have been since 2007. But we’re in a market of (mostly) rising asset prices, due persistent, constant, market interventions by them who want to retain power.

Ask yourself this. If the US economy is as strong, vibrant, and robust as the mainstream narrative claims, why were tariffs imposed on China amidst whines about their “over-capacity”? Beginning in the mid-70s, the US gutted its manufacturing capacity and replaced it with financialization. Also, when is the last time that AI fixed your roof or changed your tire?

How soon will things fall apart for the US and its empire? Who knows? But it is inevitable, because them in change don’t have a reverse gear, and we can’t print our way out of debt.

So, what to do and where to invest? Who knows? As Jamie Dimon is reputed to have once said, “When the music is playing, you’ve gotta get up and dance.” But to that remark there needs to be added this. "Know where the exit is and be there before the crowd rushes the door."

Lastly, my situation is no longer that of a young family struggling to raise kids and to build wealth for retirement. My days of having to take on financial risk are behind me, and now I can engage markets or not as I choose. So I don’t care whether the market is better characterized as “bull” or “bear”. In either, there are plenty of opportunities to bet or buck or two to test whether an idea has legs or not.

Charlie

PS a useful link. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLlNDuOTUfQ&ab_channel=TraderLion

That would be completely against Livermore’s book Charlie. He would say you are completely out of step with the market and the Market has proven you wrong but you are not willing to listen.

The Tariffs have nothing to do with which economy is stronger. It just shows how each country has decided to give incentives to their citizens. Is Canada’s economy stronger than the U.S’s because the United States has had tariffs on Canada’s lumber industry for years?

Charlie is that really a proper question? Was Ai designed to fix a roof or change a tire? That seems like a question that would have been asked back in the 80’s when the internet was just starting out, but yet, can you see how much value that has been derived from the internet?

I think that is why you are not in tune with the market. As Livermore states in his book. You need to know whether you are in a bull or bear market and then understand that sitting is where the money is made.

Andy

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Andy,

Call me out of synch if you want , but my belief is this. The US stock market is NOT the US economy, which is weak and failing.

Present US financial markets are merely a debt-fueled Ponzi scheme whereby insiders can extract wealth from those who wander in the door, and that has been the case since Easy Al bailed out LTCM in '88.

Livermore is regarded as the greatest of traders. But how many times did he go bust and how did his life end? Answer: By his own hand. That’s not a successful life. Therefore, one takes from his example what can be taken and looks to other actually far more successful traders and lives for what they have to offer.

All empires fall apart for the same reasons: hubris and debt. The US is no exception. The smart money, long-term play is the BRICS and economies based on sound money policies, not mere financialization.

Charlie

Charlie you have a right to your opinion but the facts are the facts. That has been a wonderful Bull market and if you can’t see that you have been wrong how can you trust your abilities? I have been wrong many times but after looking at my success’s and my failures, I hopefully have learned from them.

I get that Charlie but he did have some great lesson’s, you can learn even from people that have ended tragically. Also, I am not the one who brought him up, and put him on a short list of books to read, although I have to agree with you that he is a great read and I learned a lot from the book. One thing about most people in the stock market is that they all have been burned at one time or another, even the most successful ones have tripped up.

Andy

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Andy,

It’s you who is ignoring the facts and believing the propaganda.

  • The US is $35 Trillion in debt with the interest payment to service that debt approaching $1 trillion in 2024.
    -We have declining life-expectancy and rising infant mortality rates.
  • The US hasn’t won a war since 1945 and --meanwhile-- has overthrown 80 governments and killed an estimated 20 to 30 million civilians.
    -US students score abysmally in reading, math, and science compared to those of most other countries.

Etc. etc. The US empire is falling apart, and there’s no saving it from its own stupidity.

No. I haven’t been wrong about markets the past 40 years. My net-worth (minus a primary residence) puts me in tip-top tier of retirees, and current incomes are 4x current expenses. I made good money from my investing/trading, more than I’ll ever need.

And the reason I say the US sucks majorly compared to it once was is that is the necessary conclusion when one looks at the facts and stops believing the propaganda. Yeah, the following is fiction, but it captures the truth.

Charlie

Charlie I am not putting you down just pointing out a weakness. My weakness was (I am learning) believing in a bull market always.

The more I learn the more I change my mind. Now I am leaning towards what Quill always says, only the charts don’t lie. I am agnostic now. I just sold a bunch of stock 4 days ago and went short the Nasdaq, which I will probably be pulling off tomorrow.

Your world must suck Charlie, I am happy with mine. I think that every older person always see everything as terrible and every younger person sees everything as Rosy. Do we have problems sure, but we have always had problems. I think the more time you have to think about what is wrong the more wrong you see. I am going deep sea fishing out of Oceanside in 2 weeks and out of Seward Alaska in August. Fishing mountain lakes in Utah in July. Life is wonderful.

Andy

Andy,

Life is good, for some. Not so good for others. Without getting into politics and foreign affairs, we all know who that is these days.

Present trends in the US are unsustainable and won’t be changed until things really do fall apart. Unfortunately, that might well be the end of all of us. As we used to say back in the '60s,

“One nuclear bomb can ruin your whole day.”

Why the US is rushing toward self-destruction is beyond me to understand. But even more beyond understanding is why so few see the end of the US empire is both necessary and inevitable.

If you want to see a ray of hope, look to what’s happening with the BRICS or what’s happening in Africa as they kick out the French, the US, and the other colonials.

Charlie

Charlie I surmise that most people have it to easy. It is only by struggling that they are happy. So look at all the lazy people who are unhappy because they haven’t any direction or struggle in life. Everyone I know is to busy to be unhappy.

Andy

Andy,

A basic tenant of Buddhism is that life is suffering, which --in Pali-- also has the broader meaning of ‘change and impermanence’, which does describe the human condition.

But there is also suffering not of one’s own cause, such as the suffering now being imposed on the Palestinians by US provided and guided 2,000 pound bombs. I can’t be happy and sanguine about that, nor should anyone.

The US has been funding the Banderistas in Ukraine since 1945. In 2014, the US overthrew the gov’t and began funding, training, and arming them, who attacked Eastern Ukraine, killing an estimated 14,000 to 15, 000 civilians. Again, I can’t be happy about that, nor should anyone.

The US is getting its b*tt kicked in the Red Sea, but is anxious to attack China? That’s going to end about as well as it ended when the US tried to bail out the French in Vietnam, which was my generation’s war.

Pretending those things aren’t happening and that we each have no responsibility for them, though we fund them with our taxes and condone them with our silence, doesn’t mean they aren’t happening.

Charlie