A thought on NKTR

Regardless of the recent down turn I think it is appropriate to put forward the following thought and ask seasoned investors their opinion.

Since November NKTR has moved from the low $20’s to over $80 per share ( $4 billion to $14 billion market cap). Much of what is behind this move is an expectation that NKTR could be acquired. While it does have a drug in late Phase 3, the NKTR 214 with BMY’s cancer drug seems to be the value for this company (it is certainly not revenues)Earlier a Jefferies analyst put forward a premise that BMY would acquire for a price of $88.

If this is true and NKTR is in the mid $80’s is now a good time to lock in profits?
I am learning just how much I do not know about investing in Bio Tech’s. I have read extensively but still there is so much I cannot determine about CAP and addressable market.


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The best advice I can give you is don’t listen to an analyst from Jefferies any more than you might listen to me. Analysts get paid to provide buy/sell targets. In a way, those targets are not much different from price anchoring. If you read this board or Saul’s knowledge base you’ll learn that price anchoring is generally detrimental to your portfolio.

I’m long NKTR and have no near term intention to sell.

If you’re uncomfortable, or you think NKTR is at or near a top, or you think you see brighter opportunities, by all means sell. If none of those things are true, hang on.

If you decide to sell, have a plan for the cash that gets freed up.


Thanks so much for the thoughtful post. I have been a believer in the company.